Reyes or Hanley?

In a recent fantasy draft I drafted Reyes with the first overall pick, over Hanley Ramirez and Albert Pujols because he deserves to be considered as well. Was this the wrong move?

It may bite me in the ass but I feel it's the correct pick. Reyes may seem like a "risky" pick but he's actually been very very stable the last 3 years. In those three years he has averaged .292 with 118 runs, 16 HRs, 69 RBI, and 66 SB. Every year he has finished inside the top 10 fantasy seasons, and in 2006 he had the best fantasy season. He's still only 26 years old and has proven on a bad year he's still a top 10 player.

Hanley Ramirez is a stud player, he's 100% my number two pick, but he's not quite as good as Reyes. He's younger than Reyes, has batted as high as .332, stolen 51 bases, and has hit 33 homers in a season, and has averaged more runs the last three years than Reyes. So why is he worse?

Although I absolutely love Hanley as a player and would gladly take him on any team, a lot of his career highs are due to luck. Hanley has a career BABIP of .344. In 2007 when he batted .333 his BABIP was .355. Last year when it was .332 he batted .302, in 2006 with a .344 BABIP he batted .292. The point of this is to say don't count on Hanley to hit any higher than .300, or at least not any higher than Reyes.

Hanley has a good amount of it, but he doesn't have consistent 33 HR power. In 2006 Hanley hit 17 HRs with a 35.3 FB% and a 9.7% HR/FB, in 2006 he hit 29 HRs with a 41.9 FB% and a 12.7% HR/FB, finally last year he hit 33 HRs with a 36.7 FB% and a 19.2% HR/FB. The biggest outlier in those numbers is the 19.2 Homerun/Flyball ratio. Hanley hit a less percentage of fly balls in 2008, and a greater percentage of those fell for home runs. That just doesn't add up. It's easy to see his HRs increase from 17 to 29 to 33 and expect the trend to continue, but the only way it does is with continued luck. You obviously don't want to pay for luck. Hanley sure has some power, but it's closer to 25 than it is to 30+

Hanley can 100% steal a crapload of bases, he's done it before. In 2006 he stole 51 and got caught 15 times, in 2007 he stole 51 again and got caught 14 times, and last year in 2008 he stole 35 and got caught 12 times. You don't really want your best player really your best power hitter to steal that often, so Florida didn't have him go as often last year. They also toyed with putting him in the 3 slot last year, which would obviously hurt his attempts. One year could just be an outlier, but it's not a good sign that Hanley stole less times and had a worse SB%. You'd hope that he'd pick and choose his spots more and have a greater SB%. This year Hanley is expected to bat third all year long. At best I'd say you can expect him to repeat last years total of 35, but I would expect him to steal only around 30.

So batting third will decrease Hanley's SBs but it will increase his RBI. Instead of having the pitcher bat ahead of him he will have the 1 and 2 hitters. That sounds great except the Marlins are expected to bat Maybin leadoff, and Jeff Baker 2nd. CHONE projects Maybin to have a .325 OBP and Baker to have a .333 OBP. Really, when Livan Hernandez is pitching, the Mets' 8 and 9 guys will likely have the same OBP as the Marlins' 1 and 2. The point here is to say he'll get more RBI chances, but don't expect a ton more of RBI. Reyes won't hurt you in RBI, in 2006 Reyes had 81 RBI even, Hanley may touch 100, but it should only be 25 more. Also it would hurt his run total giving Reyes the edge there.

So, Reyes and Hanley should bat for the same average, Hanley will hit about 10 more homers, Reyes should have a few more runs, with Hanley having more RBI. But, Hanley will steal 30 less bases than Reyes. In fantasy we all want the HR/SB guys, and Hanley fits that mold perfectly. Reyes doesn't quite fit the mold because 15/65 doesn't look as even as a 30/30 threat. That doesn't make him any less valuable though, it infact makes him worth more. 25 HRs and 30 steals is absolutey from your SS, but its not better than 15 homers and 65 steals.

Reyes has been amazingly consistent the last 3 years and you know what you are going to get. Hanley has been just as good as Reyes the last 3 years, except he's also kind of been all over the place. One year he steals 50 the next 30. One year he bats .292 the next .332. Hanley has proven he will be an amazing fantasy player every year, but he hasn't proven he could put up certain stats consistently every year, and I didn't want to risk waiting to find out, neither should you.

(h/t to THT for some help and Fangraphs)