Next 300 Win Pitcher

After Randy Johnson that is...

In the Hardball Times Season Preview they have a section predicting career milestones, 3000 hits, 500 homers, 763 homers, and 300 wins. It's David Gassko's system and he created it because he felt Bill James' system "The Favorite Toy" produced predictions too optimistic.

Randy Johnson isn't listed in the results because he has 295 wins. It would be pretty meaninglses to see the number attached to that, 98.34% or something like that. So who is the next closest to 300 wins, if anyone actually ever gets there? According to Gassko it's Andy Pettitte. Pettitte has 215 wins so far and according to Gassko, a 14.4% chance of getting 300.

The top 6 are:

• Andy Pettitte-14.4% predicts 250 wins
  
• C.C. Sabathia-10.3% predicts 195 wins
• Roy Halladay- 7.8% predicts 192 wins
  
• Brandon Webb -7.5% predicts 167 wins
• Roy Oswalt-7.5% predicts190 wins
• Chad Billingsly- 6.6% predicts 135 wins

I put the top 6 because the Billingsly one obviously got my attention. I don't think he has a shot at 300 wins obviously, but he's on the fast track to becoming one of the top pitchers of his time. Cole Hamels is one year older and has only 3 more wins to compare the two if you were interested. Not that Hamels isn't an excellent pitcher, and better but the World Series really puts you on the map. Somewhat unrelated, draft Hamels in the 3rd round or Billingsly in the 8th?

Obvious notable is Johan Santana who is at 5.6%. It's hard to call it a waste based on the results he's given, but Johan was brought up as a reliever/starter and it took him parts of 4 seasons to become a full time starter. If he was given the job outright in 2000 maybe he'd have something like 130 wins instead of the 109 he has. But he'd also have way higher ERA and a worse win/loss%. Bearing a bad injury (you never know with that elbow that I talked about) Johan figures to get around 200 wins with a couple Cy Youngs, not too shabby but not 300.

Back to Pettitte. He's a longshot to get to 300 at only 14.4%, but he's the shortest shot there is! It's doubtful Pettitte sticks around for another 3 years let alone long enough to get 300 the way he mulls retirement each year. But, let's just say for now that Andy has a solid year with the Yankees. The Yankees win the World Series and he has the best time he's ever had on a baseball team since 1996 with a mix of his old pals Jeter Mo and Jorge and the new guys like Teixeira Burnett and Sabathia. So much so that he signs a 3 year deal next offseason for a huge discount price. He's averaged about 15 wins the last few years, so let's say he does that next year, he'd be at 230 wins.

Then let's say he learns a new type of pitch in 2010, maybe some changeup of sorts, to the start of his fictional 3 year deal, and gets 15 more wins a year for 3 years. We're now looking at 275 wins for a 40 year old pitcher. Randy Johnson is 44, Tom Glavine is 43, Maddux pitched until he was 42. 40 years old could be considered young for an old pitcher, especially in 2013. If Andy is still pitching decent as the Yankees 5th starter, enjoying the teams success at a recent run of championships, if he's sitting there at 275 wins maybe he sticks around another 2-3 years to get 300.

This is insanely unlikely situation but it could happen right? If Andy Pettitte has 300 wins is he a Hall of Famer? 300 wins and an ERA north of 4. How do you not let a 300 game winner in the Hall? I'm not saying Pettitte with 300 wins is even deserving, but how could voters not think he is with 300 wins. Is Bert Blyleven still not in the Hall of Fame because he only had 287 wins, with more innings, strikeouts, lower ERA, and a better every other pitching metric besides wins? It's an interesting idea. Never in a million years would I think of Pettitte as a Hall of Famer, but now I'd say there is a 14.4% chance he is.