Recent Retirements: Andy Pettitte

In the past week or so, Vladimir Guerrero, Todd Helton and now Andy Pettitte have or will announce their retirement. All three are/were fabulous players and all three played throughout the peak of my childhood fandom. But today I will talk about Mr. Pettitte.

This glare will be missed.

I'm a Yankee fan so naturally I was/am a huge fan of Andy Pettitte. In 1995 I saw a Yankees game in which Andy Pettitte started during his rookie season. He won the game. I felt I was onto something that nobody else saw and said "Andy Pettitte is going to be really good." Of course, Andy Pettitte was a top 50 prospect before the 1995 season and I was nine years old, so clearly I wasn't a big time scout but I suppose I was onto something.

The next year, Andy Pettitte and the Yankees were even better as Andy won 21 games and the Yankees won the World Series. At that moment in time (and for a few lingering years later), wins were a crucial part to how young Ben evaluated pitchers and I was livid that Pettitte finished second in the Cy Young behind Pat Hentgen. Who's Pat Hentgen? That's the question I asked. I didn't know much. Looking back on it however, I can't complain about how the voting shook out. Pettitte threw 221 innings with a 3.87/4.08 ERA/FIP and those 21 wins. That doesn't look as impressive today but this was 1996 (aka Steroids) and Pettittes ERA- and FIP- were 79 and 85 respectively. Meanwhile Pat Hentgen threw 265.2 innings with a 3.22/3.94 ERA/FIP. Again, these aren't fantastic numbers but Hentgen was certainly the better pitcher.

I've already talked too much about Pat Hentgen but he followed up his Cy Young year with a solid 1997and was more or less done after that. Andy Pettitte was just starting. Andy has already retired once so there was, there is and there will continue to be lots of words written about his career and his Hall of Fame chances. This is mostly because Pettitte is/was good enough to merit consideration but also because he's not quite good enough to be completely convinced one way or the other. That's why there are so many words talking about his chances, it's not obvious and we have to talk it out, and get page views. 2013 isn't over yet but so far Pettitte has 255 wins in 3,300 IP with a 3.86 ERA and a 84 FIP-, meaning Pettitte's been about 16% better than an average pitcher. That's solid. His 68.1 WAR (also very solid) puts him above an arbitrary threshold (60 WAR) to merit HOF consideration and depending on how one evaluates the Hall, his 276.2 postseason innings pitched should be worth at least something.

There is also that steroid/HGH thing. The Hall has come down hard on anyone who has been caught, admitted to or is even suspected of cheating (why isn't Jeff Bagwell in yet?). But, Pettitte is often lauded for how he handled that situation and maybe that whole breaking the rules snafu will mean less for him. That's stupid and arbitrary but it could be the truth. Also, it's not as fun to quickly end a Pettitte debate because he used HGH and that's that because cheaters never win and winners never cheat.

Compared to his peers, Andy may not be considered to be that great of a pitcher. That's because his peers are some of the greatest pitchers of all time - Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, Pedro Martinez, and yes, Kevin Brown. Andy Pettitte had a great career but so did Kevin Brown. They essentially threw the same amount of innings except Brown has a lower career ERA, more WAR and both a better and longer peak. Neither are "clean." The writers hate Brown and they seem to love Andy. Yankee fans remember Kevin Brown breaking his hand punching a wall. Yankee fans also remember Pettitte winning the clinching game of each playoff series in the Yankees 2009 World Series run, among many other notable things. However, take a peak at Kevin Brown from 1996-1998, I think you will be impressed. Either way, recency bias is at play here but perception can reality. This sucks for Kevin Brown, it's good for Andy.

I'm not sure if it's quite good enough to get Andy into the Hall of Fame but regardless, Pettitte's career will be looked at fondly, at least by those in NY (a few in Houston) and boys who saw him pitch a game in 1995. It's easy to get bogged down by the numbers when talking about a player's career and Hall of Fame chances and sometimes that can take the fun away from the equation. While I'm not a fan of evaluating players solely on feel, with news of Andy's impending retirement I choose to remember his glare waiting for the catcher's sign, his game 5 in the 1996 World Series, the 2009 playoff run and his surprise comeback in 2012. It's been fun watching Andy Pettitte pitch all of these years, I'll certainly be sad to see him go but I'm glad we'll have a chance to say goodbye and in five years let's bring up those numbers again.