Thursday, October 3, 2013

Quick(ish) Playoff Predictions: National League Division Series

The playoffs are here, the playoffs are here! Well, technically they have already started with Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay winning the one-game Wild Card playoff but the playoffs as we know them (since 1995) are here today. 

It's certainly an exciting time, the reason we play 162 (and sometimes 163) games is for this very moment. However, it also signifies that this is the beginning of the end of the 2013 season, which is sad. But, it will be sad later so let's forget about that enjoy the fun of the post season now. 

Dodgers vs. Braves

The Braves as a team actually have a better ERA (3.18) and FIP (3.44) than the Dodgers (3.25/3.45) but it's more or less a tossup when looking at those numbers. Plus, the Dodgers will be able to pitch Clayton Kershaw twice in this series, if it comes to that. As you may or may not know, Kershaw is pretty good. For the third year in a row Kershaw has led his league in ERA and this year it was 1.83. The Braves have a solid rotation and a solid team but with Kershaw pitching in 40% of the his team's games, the edge has to go to LA.

Atlanta, as they always do, have built a great team mostly by developing their own players. Kris Medlen, Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Craig Kimbrel, Brian McCann, Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward shows how damn well the Braves churn out homemade products. The Dodgers on the other hand are the exact opposite. Besides Clayton Kershaw, Kenley Jansen and AJ Ellis no particularly important Dodger was raised through their farm system, unless you want to count Yasiel Puig's transition from Cuba --> LA as a farm product. 

The Dodgers aren't without any faults playing without Matt Kemp (again) and either without or with a hobbled Andre Ethier but I expect their stars (Ramirez, Gonzalez, Puig, Kershaw, Greinke) and scrubs professional hitters approach to best the Braves. 

Prediction: Dodgers in 5. 

Cardinals vs. Pirates

Let's just get this out of the way: The Cardinals are the better team but I want the Pirates to win. I would love to find any angle to give the Pirates a better chance of winning but the Cardinals can best them by any angle you would like to check. This is partially because Francisco Liriano had to be used in the one-game playoff. This is also why it's important to win the division. Major League Baseball wanted to put meaning into winning the division with the new playoff structure, and that's what they got. Adam Wainwright can pitch twice and Liriano can only pitch once. That's pretty huge.

With that said, the Cardinals real advantage is in their lineup. The Cardinals were the best hitting team in the National League (106 wRC+) and the Pirates (98 wRC+) were good but not great. The Pirates certainly have the star power in likely MVP Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez's home runs, Starling Marte's brilliance in the field and on the base paths and Russell Martins understated brilliance, but the Cardinals are like the Red Sox MidWest, a lineup sans (many) holes. Even when a main player like Allen Craig is off the playoff roster, the Cardinals can just throw out a Matt Adams as a replacement, who has only hit a mere .284/.335/.503 this year. Sheesh. 

It's going to be fun to see the crowd in Pittsburgh and I will definitely be rooting along with them but this series comes down to two simple facts:

1) Waino gets two starts. 
2) The Cardinals back up first basemen would be the second best hitter on the Pirates.

Prediction: Cardinals in 4. 

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