Jose Abreu to the White Sox

The White Sox currently have Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn on the roster but one or both will have to be moved and/or retire because Cuban defector Jose Dariel Abreu will be manning first base in 2014. The White Sox signed the slugger to a six-year $68 million deal, topping the deals of his fellow country men, Yasiel Puig, Aroldis Chapman and Yoenis Cespedes. 

Granted, the Series Nacionales isn't exactly premier competition but Abreu's statistics are as if he's played All-Star Baseball on the rookie level. Still, even though he has batted .453/.597/.986 with 33 home runs in 66 games in previous seasons, there are questions about his ability to hit at the MLB level. 

From Keith Law:

The bigger concern scouts have about Abreu is that he might have more of a “slider-speed” bat that will struggle with velocity, especially on the inner half. He's extremely balanced at the plate and very strong, with a setup like a right-handed David Ortiz, and very good follow-through for power to all fields. He hasn't faced many pitchers with plus fastballs, and between his size and the questionable bat speed, several scouts indicated to me that they're concerned that major league pitchers will eat him up with velocity on the inner half.  

Abreu's price tag is surely inflated because of the success that Puig and Cespedes have shown in the majors, but regardless of their performance he's still the most highly regarded talent to come out of Cuba. However, while Puig and Cespedes play the outfield and showcase skills other than just swinging the bat, Cespedes is a bad body without any speed that is relegated to only first base duty. If the questions about his bat are legitimate, $11+ million is a lot to pay for someone at a non-premier position that doesn't carry a hefty stick.

So, it's obviously a risk by the White Sox but it's not necessarily a silly one. As salaries rise and teams retain more of their stars, the cost for acquiring top talent his grown significantly. Jose Abreu is a $68 million gamble, but he will still just be 27 years old when the season begins. There just aren't any free agents available to the market nowadays that are in their prime years, teams are locking up their young talent and the majority of players reaching free agency are in their 30's. Josh Hamilton certainly had a history of success at the major league level that is non-existent with Abreu but the Angels had to pay $125 million over five years for his services. There is certainly a selection bias with my choice of Hamilton as an example but it just goes to show that there is no guarantee in any free agent signing especially as players approach their mid 30's.

Through that lens it's likely more appropriate for the White Sox to take a chance on Abreu being able to turn on inside fastballs than to overspend on a free agent past his prime. Now, doing neither is certainly an option but without a fruitful farm system nor a want to look like the current version of the Astros, a move like this is the best, or at least a solid, course of action for the White Sox.

As we said before, Abreu's stats are simply off the charts. His MLE's (Major League Equivalencies) are almost as impressive. Nobody is expecting Abreu to translate into a .330/.450/.650 hitter in the majors but it's certainly not a bad thing when assesssing your value to see numbers like that. A more appropriate comparison could be another Cuban, Kendrys Morales. Morales didn't come with the same fanfare as Abreu as he left at an earlier age and spent a lot time in the Angels farm system but his profile might be a good place to start. In 2009, in his first year as a full time player in Anaheim at age 26, Morales hit .306/.355/.569 with 34 home runs and 108 RBI with a 136 wRC+. The following year Morales injured his ankle on a walk-off home run celebration and hasn't quite been the same since, but he still has a 117 wRC+ in over 2,400 plate appearances. 

In 2013, Morales hit .277/.336/.449 with a 116 wRC+and the Mariners have stated that they will offer Morales the qualifying offer worth $14.1 million in 2014. $14 million for a wRC+ ~120 may or may not be money well spent by the Mariners, but if that's the market, Abreu for $11 million starts to look a little rosier. 
I don't really have a clue how Abreu will perform in the majors and while advanced scouts and analysts can give their best guesstimates, the truth is that nobody really knows. What we do know if that salaries are rising as is the cost of acquiring elite talent. Abreu may end up not being elite but if he can hit around 20% greater than the league average he should be worth the $68 million the White Sox will pay him, even if that ends up feeling like a disappointment.