The Giants are Loyal

Tim Lincecum and the Giants agreed to a two-year $35 million deal today. This is the same Lincecum who is 20-29 with a 4.76 ERA over the last two years and 383.3 innings pitched. The same Lincecum that was relegated to relief in last years postseason. That same Lincecum, the Giants decided was worth $17.5 million a year. 

Would I give Timmy that kind of contract? No, I probably wouldn't. But Dave Cameron hit the nail on the head today in his piece "Tim Lincecum and the Slow Death of ERA":

The days of simply sorting a leaderboard by the difference in xFIP and ERA and finding bargains might be over. The entrenched hold that ERA has had on pitcher valuations appears to be dwindling. It’s time we stop expecting pitchers like this to sign for peanuts simply because of their ERA. That’s not how major league teams are evaluating pitching anymore.

If this were just a few years ago, the chances are a smart front office would look past Lincecum's ERA (4.37) and take a flier on his 3.56 xFIP on a cheap, one-year deal. It's likely that someone coming off of Lincecum's recent history wouldn't get much more. Now, as Cameron points out, that's not so easy. Lincecum's not even really reaching free agency, getting locked up by his own team, looking past the inefficiencies of strictly looking at a pitcher's ERA.

Since the media hasn't quite caught up with the front offices in baseball, we will still hear a lot about ERA but one can no longer deny the decreasing role ERA holds in this sport. However, while I'm an unapologetic fan of advanced stats and xFIP over ERA, I'm not really on Sabean's page when it comes to rewarding loyalty, and  it seems as though this played a large part in Lincecum's deal.

In 2010, a 33 year old Aubrey Huff batted .290/.385/.506 helping the Giants win the World Series. The next offseason, Giants GM Brian Sabean was loyal and rewarded Huff with a two-year $22 million deal. Huff, unsurprisingly did not live up to his 2010 and  proceeded to bat a paltry .239/.309/.359 in his next 674 PAs over the next two years, taking time away from top prospect Brandon Belt's development.  This is the cost of "keeping the gang" together.

Tim Lincecum helped the Giants win two titles and under Sabean's watch, he was the best pitcher in the sport. Loyalty is often a good thing and there is a logic behind looking past his recent ERA shortcomings and I suspect Lincy will still be a solid pitcher over the next two years, but $35 million for Lincecum is still likely a little unwarranted.

Hunter Pence is also a free agent this year who helped the Giants win a World Series and unlike Lincecum, he actually played quite well this year with a 133 wRC+ and 5.4 WAR. Brian Sabean said that he wanted to resign Pence, and if recent history is any indicator my guess is that he does, at a high price.

The Giants are smart to look beyond an antiquated way of evaluating pitchers, it might also be smart for them to be a little less loyal.