World Series: Game One

When the playoffs started I said some iteration of the following several times:

"I don't really care who wins so long as the Red Sox don't play the Cardinals."

Well, that stinks for me but honestly, it's not too bad as this should be a fantastic series, starting with game one.

Wainwright vs. Lester

Adam Wainwright has been dominant all year. He led the league in innings pitched (241.2) and while he "only" finished seventh in the league in ERA (2.94) his FIP (2.55) and xFIP (2.80) were both third in the NL. During the postseason Wainwright's actually been better, only giving up four runs in 23 innings pitched. When people talk about the best pitchers in baseball, it's a short conversation before Waino's name is mentioned and that's totally how it should be. As his teammate Carlos Beltran knows, Wainwright features one of the game's best curveballs, second only to AJ Burnett in value. Combined with a cutter that he's used more often this year and pinpoint control (1.30 BB/9), Wainwright will be tough on Red Sox hitters all evening as he has been on hitters all season. 

Meanwhile, Red Sox "ace" Jon Lester has been solid but unspectacular with a 3.75/3.59/3.90 ERA/FIP/xFIP line in 213.1 innings pitched this season. Lester's ERA (2.33) has been better in 19.1 postseason innings thus far but it's somewhat superficial with an unsustainable .255 BABIP and 90.1 LOB% in October. The Cardinals can throw out several solid right-handed bats against Lester and on the season their righties had a .793 OPS against south paws. The Sox can't (reasonably) expect Lester to outpitch Wainwright for nine innings but if he can get out the Cardinals right handers (especially if Craig is to hit) it will go a long way to improving their chances of winning.

Rosenthal vs. Uehara

Whichever team is able to throw their closer in the ninth inning is probably going to win the game as both are among the best in the game. Uehara's 2013 season is nothing short of outstanding as it doesn't get much better than Uehara's 1.09/1.61/2.08 ERA/FIP/xFIP line. Everyone knows Uehara will throw the ball in the zone but his splitter is so good it doesn't even matter. Uehara started the season being treated with kid gloves as we were told he won't pitch too many back-to-back games or multiple innings. Fast forward and Uehara is pitching in the eighth and ninth inning in the playoffs, earning ALCS MVP honors.

Rosenthal isn't much less effective than Uehara, but he goes about it in a vastly different way. Whether Rosenthal has good control or just the stuff to compensate for it, I'm not sure but his 2.39 BB/9 is fantastic considering he's also supporting a 12.90 K/9. Edward Mujica was closing for the Cardinals for 90% of the season but the job is Rosie's now and in seven postseason innings, he's yet to give up a run while striking out nine batters against two walks. 

Rosenthal has thrown 95+ mph all season but he's actually throwing harder now than he has all year as you can see with the chart below. A potential late-inning matchup of his high heat vs. the Sox offense will be a blast to watch.

Brooks Baseball

Other Notable Tidbits

• Kevin Siegrist and Randy Choate are two left-handers that Papi and co. can expect to see in high leverage innings tonight. Siegrist can actually get opposite handed hitters out while Choate will be relegated to simply LOOGY (Lefty One Out Guy) duty against Ortiz but this is one fun matchup we can bank on seeing. 
• Junichi Tazawa did a great job against the Tigers bats in the ALCS and he will have to repeat that performance against the Cardinals righties tonight. 
• Allen Craig is on the roster and will DH tonight. He hasn't played in a while so rust is certainly an issue but he's one of the best bats on the team and if he's close to a facsimile of his former self, he might be a difference maker tonight and for the rest of the series.
• Yadier Molina. The Red Sox, led by Jacoby Ellsbury, like to run. Yadier likes to prevent that from happening and does it better than anyone. With two evenly matched teams, an extra steal or a slight hesitation on a lead could have an impact. 
• Xander Bogaerts is here to stay. Stephen Drew and Will Middlebrooks did not play well enough in this postseason to take the reigns from Bogaerts. Watching Bogaerts patience at the plate and ability to hit 400 ft homers isn't something you see too often in 21 year old shortstops, if ever. 
• Clutch. Whether you believe it's a repeatable skill or not, every good thing Beltran or Ortiz does will be viewed through the lense of their clutch ability, not the simple fact that an awesome player sometimes does awesome things.

Prediction

While I think that the Red Sox might be the overall better team, due to their lineup depth, Wainwright's advantage on the hill makes me say the Cardinals will win. But maybe it's just wishful thinking.