Boston Red Sox, World Series Champions

Congratulations to the Boston Red Sox. I can't say I'm personally a fan of the victory but the best team definitely won.

A few thoughts:

• Mike Matheny gave Ron Washington a run for his money on how to not manage a World Series in a few spots. Grading managers is tough business but I can't help but feel he will still be a good one and I'm jaded in ever thinking Ron Washington as a competent MLB manager.
• We have and we will continue to hear it a lot but Ben Cherington did an excellent job with this team during the offseason. The Sox weren't your classic "worst to first" team as they had a very talented roster even last year, but kudos to Cherington and his staff.
• John Lackey, wow. What a turnaround his career has had. I'm not sure I've seen any athlete go from "Fuck You" to "I Love You" quite like Lackey. The fruits of Tommy John surgery I suppose.
• I don't get the impression this is the last we will see of these teams in October. Both teams have decisions to make this offseason (Ellsbury, Beltran, etc.) but the cores for each squad is set and dependent on what happens this offseason elsewhere, it's likely Boston and St. Louis will be favored in 2014.
• David Ortiz has three rings and a budding Hall of Fame case. I'm not sure I want a Hall of Fame with Papi in there without Edgar Martinez but so be it. If Oritz retired tomorrow I wouldn't put him in. But, Ortiz isn't retiring and he's been one of the best old hitters of all time. His 154 OPS+ is the 11th best of all time from age 34-37. He's hitting better now than he ever has before and if he keeps up a close facsimile to this, his case begins to make a lot of noise. There is that whole PED thing, which I don't necessarily consider but it would be a darn shame if Ortiz gets a pass cause people like him and Jeff Bagwell is denied because his arms were big.
• Speaking of impending free agents, I think both Ellsbury and Beltran are gone. I'll guess Ellsbury to Seattle and Beltran to the Yankees. Jackie Bradley Jr. and Oscar Taveras should slight right in and that helps illustrates how well run both of these teams are. The next man up is a top-50 prospect. #jealous
• I would hate to be in the NL Central and have to face Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, Michael Wacha, Trevor Rosenthal and Carlos Martinez for the foreseeable future. I'd love to see what Rosie and Martinez could do as starters, it will be interesting to see what the Cardinals do there. My guess is Rosie stays in the pen while Martinez moves to the rotation. Speaking of Shelby Miller, where are you? An extra middling OF bat or middle reliever wouldn't have been a difference maker in the series, but every little thing counts and Miller didn't enter a game in the World Series. Not an optimal use of resources. 
• It's dangerous to overrate postseason performance but Jon Lester looked like the good version we've seen inconsistently in recent years. I would confidently bump him up a bit in my preseason fantasy baseball rankings, especially if his improvement was from a mechanical adjustment. 

It's sad that baseball in 2013 is over but luckily the MLB offseason is full of action, welcome to the Hot Stove Season!

Jose Abreu to the White Sox

The White Sox currently have Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn on the roster but one or both will have to be moved and/or retire because Cuban defector Jose Dariel Abreu will be manning first base in 2014. The White Sox signed the slugger to a six-year $68 million deal, topping the deals of his fellow country men, Yasiel Puig, Aroldis Chapman and Yoenis Cespedes. 

Granted, the Series Nacionales isn't exactly premier competition but Abreu's statistics are as if he's played All-Star Baseball on the rookie level. Still, even though he has batted .453/.597/.986 with 33 home runs in 66 games in previous seasons, there are questions about his ability to hit at the MLB level. 

From Keith Law:

The bigger concern scouts have about Abreu is that he might have more of a “slider-speed” bat that will struggle with velocity, especially on the inner half. He's extremely balanced at the plate and very strong, with a setup like a right-handed David Ortiz, and very good follow-through for power to all fields. He hasn't faced many pitchers with plus fastballs, and between his size and the questionable bat speed, several scouts indicated to me that they're concerned that major league pitchers will eat him up with velocity on the inner half.  

Abreu's price tag is surely inflated because of the success that Puig and Cespedes have shown in the majors, but regardless of their performance he's still the most highly regarded talent to come out of Cuba. However, while Puig and Cespedes play the outfield and showcase skills other than just swinging the bat, Cespedes is a bad body without any speed that is relegated to only first base duty. If the questions about his bat are legitimate, $11+ million is a lot to pay for someone at a non-premier position that doesn't carry a hefty stick.

So, it's obviously a risk by the White Sox but it's not necessarily a silly one. As salaries rise and teams retain more of their stars, the cost for acquiring top talent his grown significantly. Jose Abreu is a $68 million gamble, but he will still just be 27 years old when the season begins. There just aren't any free agents available to the market nowadays that are in their prime years, teams are locking up their young talent and the majority of players reaching free agency are in their 30's. Josh Hamilton certainly had a history of success at the major league level that is non-existent with Abreu but the Angels had to pay $125 million over five years for his services. There is certainly a selection bias with my choice of Hamilton as an example but it just goes to show that there is no guarantee in any free agent signing especially as players approach their mid 30's.

Through that lens it's likely more appropriate for the White Sox to take a chance on Abreu being able to turn on inside fastballs than to overspend on a free agent past his prime. Now, doing neither is certainly an option but without a fruitful farm system nor a want to look like the current version of the Astros, a move like this is the best, or at least a solid, course of action for the White Sox.

As we said before, Abreu's stats are simply off the charts. His MLE's (Major League Equivalencies) are almost as impressive. Nobody is expecting Abreu to translate into a .330/.450/.650 hitter in the majors but it's certainly not a bad thing when assesssing your value to see numbers like that. A more appropriate comparison could be another Cuban, Kendrys Morales. Morales didn't come with the same fanfare as Abreu as he left at an earlier age and spent a lot time in the Angels farm system but his profile might be a good place to start. In 2009, in his first year as a full time player in Anaheim at age 26, Morales hit .306/.355/.569 with 34 home runs and 108 RBI with a 136 wRC+. The following year Morales injured his ankle on a walk-off home run celebration and hasn't quite been the same since, but he still has a 117 wRC+ in over 2,400 plate appearances. 

In 2013, Morales hit .277/.336/.449 with a 116 wRC+and the Mariners have stated that they will offer Morales the qualifying offer worth $14.1 million in 2014. $14 million for a wRC+ ~120 may or may not be money well spent by the Mariners, but if that's the market, Abreu for $11 million starts to look a little rosier. 
I don't really have a clue how Abreu will perform in the majors and while advanced scouts and analysts can give their best guesstimates, the truth is that nobody really knows. What we do know if that salaries are rising as is the cost of acquiring elite talent. Abreu may end up not being elite but if he can hit around 20% greater than the league average he should be worth the $68 million the White Sox will pay him, even if that ends up feeling like a disappointment.

Quick Thoughts: World Series

Some quick and some belated thoughts from the last few days:

• The obstruction call might be based on a questionable rule but it was the correct call.
• I'm not sure why the Red Sox were holding Kolten Wong on first with a two-run lead and two outs in the ninth, but obviously they made the right call. I don't know if their advanced scouts saw something with Wong or what but normally you wouldn't hold on the runner on first there, especially with a lefty at bat. With that said, you can't take the bat out of Beltran's hands there. Silly move by Wong, it will be interesting to see how he and Matheny react to it. Will Wong pinch run again in a similar spot? Will the Cardinals, already with a few extra MLB-level players, look to trade Wong? 
• Mike Matheny is probably a good manager who will win a lot of games leading the Cardinals but his bullpen usage during the World Series has been extremely suspect. If Randy Choate is on your postseason roster, is warm and ready to go with David Ortiz at bat in a high leverage spot, why doesn't he come in? Ortiz had a 186 wRC+ against righties this year, and only a 94 wRC+ against lefites. There's also the little bit about how Matheny let Lynn bat in a big spot and how he decided to relieve Lance Lynn with another righty, Seth Maness. 
• Clay Buchholz is deserving of the gutsy praise he will get today. Getting through five innings with his diminished stuff is quite impressive and speaks to the improvements he made this year with location and changing speeds. I also wouldn't be surprised if he has surgery after the World Series.

The Giants are Loyal

Tim Lincecum and the Giants agreed to a two-year $35 million deal today. This is the same Lincecum who is 20-29 with a 4.76 ERA over the last two years and 383.3 innings pitched. The same Lincecum that was relegated to relief in last years postseason. That same Lincecum, the Giants decided was worth $17.5 million a year. 

Would I give Timmy that kind of contract? No, I probably wouldn't. But Dave Cameron hit the nail on the head today in his piece "Tim Lincecum and the Slow Death of ERA":

The days of simply sorting a leaderboard by the difference in xFIP and ERA and finding bargains might be over. The entrenched hold that ERA has had on pitcher valuations appears to be dwindling. It’s time we stop expecting pitchers like this to sign for peanuts simply because of their ERA. That’s not how major league teams are evaluating pitching anymore.

If this were just a few years ago, the chances are a smart front office would look past Lincecum's ERA (4.37) and take a flier on his 3.56 xFIP on a cheap, one-year deal. It's likely that someone coming off of Lincecum's recent history wouldn't get much more. Now, as Cameron points out, that's not so easy. Lincecum's not even really reaching free agency, getting locked up by his own team, looking past the inefficiencies of strictly looking at a pitcher's ERA.

Since the media hasn't quite caught up with the front offices in baseball, we will still hear a lot about ERA but one can no longer deny the decreasing role ERA holds in this sport. However, while I'm an unapologetic fan of advanced stats and xFIP over ERA, I'm not really on Sabean's page when it comes to rewarding loyalty, and  it seems as though this played a large part in Lincecum's deal.

In 2010, a 33 year old Aubrey Huff batted .290/.385/.506 helping the Giants win the World Series. The next offseason, Giants GM Brian Sabean was loyal and rewarded Huff with a two-year $22 million deal. Huff, unsurprisingly did not live up to his 2010 and  proceeded to bat a paltry .239/.309/.359 in his next 674 PAs over the next two years, taking time away from top prospect Brandon Belt's development.  This is the cost of "keeping the gang" together.

Tim Lincecum helped the Giants win two titles and under Sabean's watch, he was the best pitcher in the sport. Loyalty is often a good thing and there is a logic behind looking past his recent ERA shortcomings and I suspect Lincy will still be a solid pitcher over the next two years, but $35 million for Lincecum is still likely a little unwarranted.

Hunter Pence is also a free agent this year who helped the Giants win a World Series and unlike Lincecum, he actually played quite well this year with a 133 wRC+ and 5.4 WAR. Brian Sabean said that he wanted to resign Pence, and if recent history is any indicator my guess is that he does, at a high price.

The Giants are smart to look beyond an antiquated way of evaluating pitchers, it might also be smart for them to be a little less loyal.

World Series: Game One

When the playoffs started I said some iteration of the following several times:

"I don't really care who wins so long as the Red Sox don't play the Cardinals."

Well, that stinks for me but honestly, it's not too bad as this should be a fantastic series, starting with game one.

Wainwright vs. Lester

Adam Wainwright has been dominant all year. He led the league in innings pitched (241.2) and while he "only" finished seventh in the league in ERA (2.94) his FIP (2.55) and xFIP (2.80) were both third in the NL. During the postseason Wainwright's actually been better, only giving up four runs in 23 innings pitched. When people talk about the best pitchers in baseball, it's a short conversation before Waino's name is mentioned and that's totally how it should be. As his teammate Carlos Beltran knows, Wainwright features one of the game's best curveballs, second only to AJ Burnett in value. Combined with a cutter that he's used more often this year and pinpoint control (1.30 BB/9), Wainwright will be tough on Red Sox hitters all evening as he has been on hitters all season. 

Meanwhile, Red Sox "ace" Jon Lester has been solid but unspectacular with a 3.75/3.59/3.90 ERA/FIP/xFIP line in 213.1 innings pitched this season. Lester's ERA (2.33) has been better in 19.1 postseason innings thus far but it's somewhat superficial with an unsustainable .255 BABIP and 90.1 LOB% in October. The Cardinals can throw out several solid right-handed bats against Lester and on the season their righties had a .793 OPS against south paws. The Sox can't (reasonably) expect Lester to outpitch Wainwright for nine innings but if he can get out the Cardinals right handers (especially if Craig is to hit) it will go a long way to improving their chances of winning.

Rosenthal vs. Uehara

Whichever team is able to throw their closer in the ninth inning is probably going to win the game as both are among the best in the game. Uehara's 2013 season is nothing short of outstanding as it doesn't get much better than Uehara's 1.09/1.61/2.08 ERA/FIP/xFIP line. Everyone knows Uehara will throw the ball in the zone but his splitter is so good it doesn't even matter. Uehara started the season being treated with kid gloves as we were told he won't pitch too many back-to-back games or multiple innings. Fast forward and Uehara is pitching in the eighth and ninth inning in the playoffs, earning ALCS MVP honors.

Rosenthal isn't much less effective than Uehara, but he goes about it in a vastly different way. Whether Rosenthal has good control or just the stuff to compensate for it, I'm not sure but his 2.39 BB/9 is fantastic considering he's also supporting a 12.90 K/9. Edward Mujica was closing for the Cardinals for 90% of the season but the job is Rosie's now and in seven postseason innings, he's yet to give up a run while striking out nine batters against two walks. 

Rosenthal has thrown 95+ mph all season but he's actually throwing harder now than he has all year as you can see with the chart below. A potential late-inning matchup of his high heat vs. the Sox offense will be a blast to watch.

Brooks Baseball

Other Notable Tidbits

• Kevin Siegrist and Randy Choate are two left-handers that Papi and co. can expect to see in high leverage innings tonight. Siegrist can actually get opposite handed hitters out while Choate will be relegated to simply LOOGY (Lefty One Out Guy) duty against Ortiz but this is one fun matchup we can bank on seeing. 
• Junichi Tazawa did a great job against the Tigers bats in the ALCS and he will have to repeat that performance against the Cardinals righties tonight. 
• Allen Craig is on the roster and will DH tonight. He hasn't played in a while so rust is certainly an issue but he's one of the best bats on the team and if he's close to a facsimile of his former self, he might be a difference maker tonight and for the rest of the series.
• Yadier Molina. The Red Sox, led by Jacoby Ellsbury, like to run. Yadier likes to prevent that from happening and does it better than anyone. With two evenly matched teams, an extra steal or a slight hesitation on a lead could have an impact. 
• Xander Bogaerts is here to stay. Stephen Drew and Will Middlebrooks did not play well enough in this postseason to take the reigns from Bogaerts. Watching Bogaerts patience at the plate and ability to hit 400 ft homers isn't something you see too often in 21 year old shortstops, if ever. 
• Clutch. Whether you believe it's a repeatable skill or not, every good thing Beltran or Ortiz does will be viewed through the lense of their clutch ability, not the simple fact that an awesome player sometimes does awesome things.

Prediction

While I think that the Red Sox might be the overall better team, due to their lineup depth, Wainwright's advantage on the hill makes me say the Cardinals will win. But maybe it's just wishful thinking.

Quick(ish) LCS Predictions and Chatter

I'm saddened that the Oakland A's and Billy Beane's shit didn't work in the playoffs.* I'm also saddened that the Pirates were knocked off by Cardinals. This is all on top of the sadness that occurred when the Yankees missed the playoffs and the thought that the postseason means the season is essentially over. But, enough with the sad talk, at the very least the best four teams - the Red Sox, Tigers, Dodgers and Cardinals - made it to the league championship series. This is going to be fun to watch.

*This is sarcasm. The best way to do well in the playoffs is to get there and the A's have had several playoff appearances with Billy Beane. The fact that they haven't done better than an ALCS sweep speaks more to the randomness of the postseason than a knock on Billy Beane and the A's.

Depending on who you ask, starting pitching is either most important or the most overrated part of a team in the postseason. We have seen Adam Wainwright (2-0, 2 ER in 16 IP, 15/1 K/BB) and Justin Verlander (1-0, 1 ER in 15 IP, 21/2 K/BB) dominate in the division series and we have also seen 9 different Rays relievers hold the best offense in baseball to three runs. Having a dominant starter is a damn good thing* but with more rest between games and no need to navigate through a 162-game season, relievers hold a lot more value. Well, they should hold more value as an OK reliever with the platoon advantage is likely a better option than all but a few starters facing a lineup for a third or fourth time. Either way, it's funny that teams will often overspend to help their relief in the offseason yet underutilized it when it matters most and is most effective, in the postseason.  

*But then Freddy Garcia goes toe-to-toe with Clayton Kershaw. You can't predict ball. 

In terms of starting pitching, it's tough to beat the Tigers. Anibal Sanchez, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Doug Fister will face the Boston Red Sox. Jon Lester, John Lackey, Clay Buchholz and Jake Peavy doesn't carry the same cachet but their lineup is insane (115 wRC+ leads the league), their rotation had a 3.84 ERA (4th in the AL) and although their bullpen era was just 3.70 (10th in the AL) they have Koji Uehara, owner of a 1.09 ERA 0.57 WHIP.

The Red Sox won't beat you with studs the way Miggy, Prince Verlander and Scherzer will but top to bottom this is the best team in baseball and my prediction is the Sox in seven. 

The Cardinals have been good for a long time and the future only looks brighter. Carlos Beltran will likely leave via free agency but he'll be replaced by a full-time Matt Adams and/or one of the best position prospects in baseball in Oscar Taveras. The Cardinals have Adam Wainwright pitching at his peak and behind him is Shelby Miller (3.73 xFIP @ 22 years old), a rookie who has allowed 2 hits in his last 16 IP (Michael Wacha), a two-time top 50 pitching prospect who can throw triple-digits (Carlos Martinez) and Trevor Rosenthal.

This team is not only great now but they are flush with cheap, young talent. If they don't win this year they will have plenty of other opportunities. Of course, with the Dodgers payroll it's not like this is their only bullet for the decade. They still have to resign Clayton Kershaw but once that is done they could probably find a suitor for Andre Eithier and think about signing Robinson Cano and/or David Price a few years later. Neither are likely but with the way the Dodgers have done business thus far, nothing can be off the table. George Steinbrenner is probably giving them a nod of approval in heaven or hell, depending on the team you root for.

Adam Wainwright is a beast, nobody will doubt that, but the Dodgers can counter Waino's output with the best pitcher on the planet in Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw will also pitch twice (if need be) while Waino will likely only step on the mound once this series. The starters behind Zack Greinke aren't that impressive as Ricky Nolasco and Hyun-Jin Ryu have both struggled of late but Joe Kelly is starting game one of this series and may have to pitch twice. That's not a good thing.

Another non-good thing is the Dodgers health. The Cardinals are without Allen Craig but as anyone who has followed the Cardinals or scoured the waiver wire in fantasy baseball knows, Matt Adams can hit and there has been no downgrade from Craig to The Big Mayo besides the possible late-inning pinch hit at-bat. The Dodgers meanwhile are without Matt Kemp. Even though they have played admirably without him all season, that's still a blow. Another blow is Andre Eithier who may or may not be able to play more than pinch hitting duties. Eithier has his flaws, particularly against left-handed pitching but the downgrade to Skip Schumaker is a pretty sizeable one.

Any list of the top relievers/closers in baseball would certainly have to have Kenley Jansen and Trevor Rosenthal on it. Jansen struck out 111 batters and walked 18. Rosenthal struck out 108 and walked 20. These guys are among the best in the biz, hands down. Behind Jansen the Dodgers have the rejuvenated Brian Wilson with Paco Rodriguez to set up from the left side . Meanwhile the Cardinals have the flame-throwing Carlos Martinez and lefty Kevin Siegrest (0.45 ERA) to set up from the left side. These bullpens might be a draw and the kicker could be Shelby Miller. Miller slowed down as he reached his career innings total in September and he didn't see a game in the division series, starting or relieving. If Matheny were to use him in the rotation one would think he would get the nod over Kelly. So, if he's on the roster I would assume he'll enter a game at some point and Miller as a reliever for multiple innings might play a big role. Something to look out for.

I didn't think it would come to this but even after spending time talking about how starting pitching is overrated in the postseason, starting pitching is my rationale in choosing this series. Joe Kelly, assuming Shelby Miller doesn't start, will have to pitch against Zach Greinke twice and that's just too big of an advantage for me to call this one for the Cardinals. Dodgers in six.  

Quick(ish) Playoff Predictions: National League Division Series

The playoffs are here, the playoffs are here! Well, technically they have already started with Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay winning the one-game Wild Card playoff but the playoffs as we know them (since 1995) are here today. 

It's certainly an exciting time, the reason we play 162 (and sometimes 163) games is for this very moment. However, it also signifies that this is the beginning of the end of the 2013 season, which is sad. But, it will be sad later so let's forget about that enjoy the fun of the post season now. 

Dodgers vs. Braves

The Braves as a team actually have a better ERA (3.18) and FIP (3.44) than the Dodgers (3.25/3.45) but it's more or less a tossup when looking at those numbers. Plus, the Dodgers will be able to pitch Clayton Kershaw twice in this series, if it comes to that. As you may or may not know, Kershaw is pretty good. For the third year in a row Kershaw has led his league in ERA and this year it was 1.83. The Braves have a solid rotation and a solid team but with Kershaw pitching in 40% of the his team's games, the edge has to go to LA.

Atlanta, as they always do, have built a great team mostly by developing their own players. Kris Medlen, Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Craig Kimbrel, Brian McCann, Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward shows how damn well the Braves churn out homemade products. The Dodgers on the other hand are the exact opposite. Besides Clayton Kershaw, Kenley Jansen and AJ Ellis no particularly important Dodger was raised through their farm system, unless you want to count Yasiel Puig's transition from Cuba --> LA as a farm product. 

The Dodgers aren't without any faults playing without Matt Kemp (again) and either without or with a hobbled Andre Ethier but I expect their stars (Ramirez, Gonzalez, Puig, Kershaw, Greinke) and scrubs professional hitters approach to best the Braves. 

Prediction: Dodgers in 5. 

Cardinals vs. Pirates

Let's just get this out of the way: The Cardinals are the better team but I want the Pirates to win. I would love to find any angle to give the Pirates a better chance of winning but the Cardinals can best them by any angle you would like to check. This is partially because Francisco Liriano had to be used in the one-game playoff. This is also why it's important to win the division. Major League Baseball wanted to put meaning into winning the division with the new playoff structure, and that's what they got. Adam Wainwright can pitch twice and Liriano can only pitch once. That's pretty huge.

With that said, the Cardinals real advantage is in their lineup. The Cardinals were the best hitting team in the National League (106 wRC+) and the Pirates (98 wRC+) were good but not great. The Pirates certainly have the star power in likely MVP Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez's home runs, Starling Marte's brilliance in the field and on the base paths and Russell Martins understated brilliance, but the Cardinals are like the Red Sox MidWest, a lineup sans (many) holes. Even when a main player like Allen Craig is off the playoff roster, the Cardinals can just throw out a Matt Adams as a replacement, who has only hit a mere .284/.335/.503 this year. Sheesh. 

It's going to be fun to see the crowd in Pittsburgh and I will definitely be rooting along with them but this series comes down to two simple facts:

1) Waino gets two starts. 

2) The Cardinals back up first basemen would be the second best hitter on the Pirates.

Prediction: Cardinals in 4.