Future Hall of Famers

People are going a little crazy with the Hall of Fame, so no reason I shouldn't. On the always satisfying Page 2 on ESPN.com I cam across this article about 40 future hall of famers. The author, David Schoenfield, reports that based on history at any given time in the majors there are 40 active players that will be in the hall. He last made a list 3.5 years ago, and this is his updated one.

The number 40 seems a bit high. When you look at the list you see why it's certainly possible, To simplify it a little, there are about 15 automatic entries, the Griffeys, Glavines, and the Jeters. Then there are the 10 or so guys that should get in at some point, but probably not right away, and may need some dust to settle before they get in, these are the Mussinas, Chippers, Kents. The last 15 represent a mix of guys that are in their decline phase and it's not known if their resumes will be enough, and the young guys that can end their careers tomorrow, these are the Heltons, Sheffields, and Hanleys.

Randy Johnson very well could be the last 300 game winner if he gets in on the Giants next year. With that said, I think that means voters have to change their minds on what makes a hall of fame pitcher. If the voters are going to give respect to closers as they have with Gossage, Eck, and Sutter (although he's definitely arguably not worthy) with Mo and Hoffman as shoeins more or less, they have to realize how the game has changed and pitchers just don't get as many decisions as they did before. Jack Morris and Bert Blyleven are not in the hall with 287 and 254 wins respectively, but they pitched in a time where it was kind of reasonable to use 300 as a threshold.

Guys like Muissina, Schilling, and Smoltz won't be held to those standards (or shouldn't) and should get in at some point in time. That sets up the young pitchers of today. Roy Halladay could end up with an amazing pitching resume but still be way short of 300 wins, yet still be a viable candidate compared to his peers. No pitcher besides RJ can be projected near 300 wins. CC Sabathia is only 28 and has 117 wins, but at this pace he'll need to play for 13 more years when he's 41 to get to 300.

Anyways, I really liked the idea of the list, and the list itself. I'm starting to come around to the idea of 40 players because even though anything can happen to Joe Mauer next year, any number of unlikely players can have their careers take off, and seriously who am I to doubt this guys historical work. Although I talk a little about the Hall of Fame and who I think should or shouldn't get in, I prefer predicting who can get in waaaay before they have the resume to do so, with players that I grew up watching, not Jim Rice.