Pettitte Returns

So it looks like Andy Pettitte will remain with the Yankees next year. As I have said before (and countless others who actually know what they're talking about) keeping Pettitte makes a lot of sense for the Yankees. Yes the Yankees have some young options to put at the 5th starter (Aceves, Kennedy, Hughes), but why spend all that money on the rotation to cheap out on Pettitte, and risk giving 25-30 starts on a below average pitcher, a la Ponson, Rasner and co. like last year. Pettitte gives you innings, no ifs ands or buts about it, and that is mostly what the Yankees need, especially with Burnett as an injury risk, and Joba at an innings limit. But what some people don't realize is Pettitte is still a darn good pitcher...

According to Fangraphs, Pettitte was worth $19.9m last year, and that's not a fluke given that he was worth $18.6m in 07, $12.9m in 06, and $19.8m in 05. Most of that value lies in Pettitte's consistent 200 innings pitched as well as his FIP, which has been great the last few years, while his ERAs have been high. Pettitte had a 3.71 FIP last year with a 4.54 ERA and a 3.87 FIP in 2007 with a 4.05 ERA. The Yankees defense is obviously not great and that will hurt, and has hurt Pettitte's ERA recently, but a lot of it is also bad luck.

You can't blame people for reading into ERA a lot, but it's clearly not a good indicator of future success. We all remember Pettitte's struggles at the end of the last season in the 2nd half. But the guy pitched when he probably should have missed a couple starts, and all the other indicators point to Andy having a successful 2009. Pettitte's new contract at most will cost the Yankees $12m, and that's if he earns all the incentives which would obviously mean good things for the Yankees, and if he pitched as well as he did last year with luck on his side, the Yankees can come out of this way on top. Before this signing the Yankees left the door open slightly, but now it's firmly shut and the Yankees have the best rotation and best team on paper. What are your thoughts?