Ryan Howard asked for $18m in arbitration today. It's the third highest requested amount after Clemens $22m in 2005, and Jeter's $18.5 in 2001. Jeter however signed a long term contract and Clemens only ended up receiving $12.5m since his was prorated as he didn't play a full season.
Fangraphs says that Howard was worth $14.1m last year, $17.1 in 2007, and $25.7 in his 2006 MVP year, if you want to still give him credit for that award. Howard is a 29 year old bad glove 1b who has seen virtually all of his important stats decrease the last 3 years, obviously not a good trend. His wOBA has fallen from a superb .436 in 2006 to a solid .366 this year. That's still a good number, and I would never call Howard a bad hitter, but he plays 1b not 2b, and his .366 wOBA placed him 12th among 1b in the majors. Howard should be paid based off that, not off his 146 RBI, which although are impressive, don't nearly tell the story about his hitting. Justin Morneau gets MVP votes because he hits behind Joe Mauer, Ryan Howard is trying to be paid as a top 1b because he hits behind Rollins, Victorino, and Utley.
The Phillies could probably afford to keep Howard year to year, probably overpaying by a couple million. However, Howard is a product of batting in the lineup, many other 1b are capable of his production. If a deal comes around, although the fans would hate it citing his gawdy RBI numbers, it could make a lot of sense.
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