BABIP Bull Shit

Is BABIP really full of crap?

I don't know or pretend to know too much about all statistics but I'm pretty sure BABIP isn't totall BS. The writer is right that normal BABIPs are around .290-.300, but he suggests hitters can't sustain higher BABIPS and that is false. The type of hitter you are determines if you can sustain a higher than average BABIP. A player like Ichiro will get a ton of infield hits and make singles out of what other players would have as outs. The point is then that when a hitter outperforms his personal BABIP you can expect him to regress to his mean.

Along those same lines, many are pointing to BABIP as proof that Mike Aviles will fall off this season. His .359 was seventh among big leaguers with 400 or more plate appearances last year.

Who knows. Maybe they'll be right, and Aviles will turn into a pumpkin this year. But I'm not as willing to go cause-and-effect with this.

Mike Aviles has played one year and his BABIP was .359. We can't really say for sure that he can't sustain that BABIP but he's not likely too so it's then safe to say he will regress this year. For what it's worth in over 1000 at bats in AAA, Aviles' BABIP was around .300-.310 so it sure seems as though .359 is not likely to occur again.

Mellinger goes on to show a couple of what in his mind were good reasons, as to why BABIP isn't about luck:

You know who had the best BABIP in baseball last year? Milton Bradley. Had a pretty great year, too, and just happens to be a hell of a hitter.

Know who was dead last (min. 400 plate appearances)? Kenji Johjima, not exactly our generation's Johnny Bench.

Justin Duchscherer had the best BABIP among pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched, and he had an All-Star season where he walked 2.16 per nine innings and held opposing batters to a .211 average. Pretty good.

Kevin Millwood had the worst BABIP, and no coincidence that he was just a terrible all-around pitcher last year.

Is it just me or is this actually evidence for BABIP? Duchscherer had a great year because he was lucky, his BABIP was too low to sustain. Hitters can often sustain their BABIPs because the kind of hitters they are, pitchers face so many different hitters its less likely that they sustain it. Greg Maddux is one of the most consistent pitchers of all time, yet listen to these BABIPs: In 1998 his was .282, in 1999 .334, and then in 2000 it was .286. How can his BABIP change that much in 3 years if no luck was involved?

Milton Bradley is a great hitter, especially when healthy, but last year his BABIP was .396, and in 2007 it was .329. Could that be part of the reason why he was so good last year, and better than he's ever been before? I'd say so. In an effort to show how BABIP is skill, this guy has basically given evidence why it does involve luck. In doing so he named a slew of players who have career averages inline with their career BABIPs. This one example really shows the luck aspect:

9. Chipper Jones. Career batting average: .310. Career BABIP: .323. Comment: BABIPed .251 in that terrible 2004 season. Next-lowest was .289 as a rookie, and he peaked at .388 last year

I suppose he's trying to say in 2004 Chipper was a worse hitter for whatever reason, therefore his BABIP was poor. But what it really shows was 2004 was an unlucky season for Chipper due to the low BABIP, so when he hi .296 in 2005 on a .302 BABIP nobody was surprised. It seems as though he maybe thinks baseball players skills change from year to year. How is that possible? The idea of BABIP being luck, that pitchers can't control where the batter will hit it, may seem hard to grasp, but I imagine it's easier than thinking a players skill set could change so dramatically year to year.

Players have a baseline BABIP, over all the at bats or innings in their career they have come to expect a certain BABIP. It's when they deviate from that baseline where we talk about luck. Hitters can sustain higher than average BABIPs but not higher than there average BABIPs. Magglio Ordonez has a career average of .312, and a BABIP of .320, does that mean his BABIPs are all skill? No. In 2007 he batted an absurd .363, hit BABIP was an absurd .385. Magglio is a great hitter, but when he bats .363 you have to question why, and when you look at his BABIP you can find the answer.

Some eople make BABIP out to mean that baseball is all about luck, it's actually far from it. But you can't be naive to think that it's all about skill. There are 9 guys on the diamond trying to get the ball but sometimes it lands in a spot where nobody is. And sometimes that happens more often than it should, effecting either the hitter or pitcher both positively or negatively.