Mets Keep Ollie

For 3 years and $36m the Mets keep their lefty pitcher. In the beginning of the offseason Oliver Perez wanted 4-5 years, so the fact the Mets got him for 3 years may seem appealing to some. Don't fool yourself, this isn't a good deal. Perez seems to fit the mold of if you've done it before you can do it again. The problem is he did 'it' in 2004, and hasn't come close to 'it' since. He's had some decent ERAs the last two years 4.22 last year and 3.56 the year before, but when you put those in context it's not that great, especially when his FIP for those years were both over 4.50. Essentially the Mets are paying Perez based on luck, his inflated ERA the last few years. Fangraphs is a great site for stats, and even better is probably their blogging analysis and this little bit on this signing basically sums it up:

"I don’t know what kind of deal Ben Sheets is angling after, or what the extent of his medical reports indicate, but given his projected FIPs, Ben Sheets only has to average 76 innings per year to match Oliver Perez in value."

I made a joke about Minaya referring to Steve Phillips admitted busts, but this is one speaks for itself. Fangraphs' winvalues correspond amazingly well with some signings and arbitration hearings, close enough to assume teams evaluating players using a similar system. Based on this I think it's safe to assume the Mets are not one of those teams. The Mets had a lot of holes to fill in the rotation and so far they've acquired Tim Redding and Oliver Perez. The fact that both of their projected FIPs are similar should basically sum it up. The biggest problem may be the fact they could still be a force in the NL, whatta league!