Spring Training games haven't even started and in just the last couple of days there has been a flutter of Roy Halladay trade talk. Want proof?
CBS Sports has mentioned it.
ESPN talked about it here.
The New York Post wondered if he would be this years Sabathia.
John Heyman speculates he may be a trade candidate.
The Blue Jays play in a terrifying division and unless Travis Snider is Albert Pujols rookie good, everyone stays healthy, and they have some luck, they aren't going to get into the playoffs anytime soon. Add on the fact that the economy is shall we say dece, and the Blue Jays haven't been great at the gate since the Joe Carter years, it makes sense why they would entertain the idea of rebuilding, and that would seem to start with trading Halladay.
However, even a rebuilding team could afford to keep Halladay around as he's just filthy good, but Vernon Wells presents a problem. One of those links above mentioned that Wells was shopped this offseason. I wonder why. He only signed a 7 year $126m deal in 2008. Wells was pretty solid last year but hurt and was truly horrendous in 2007. If he were a free agent today he'd be looking at a 2 year deal. Something similar to what Andruw Jones signed last year following a disappointing season, but less than the contract he got (2/$36m), and instead the Blue Jays have to pay him over $100m over the next 6 years. I don't have a clue who would trade for that contract in general, let alone in this economic climate. Hmm Abreu for $5m or Wells for $100m?
Wells has all the talent in the world, but he's not even remotely close to a consistent player. His wOBA the since 2002: .327, .386, .350, .335, .382, .306, .357. He more or less goes from average to a little above average, occasionally throwing in a great season or a really bad one in. You don't know what you're going to get. If a team wants to unload and rebuild, they are going to want to trade the overpaid outfielder over the underpaid paid staff ace.
According to Riccardi he can never say never but it's not likely as of now that they trade Halladay. Wells on the other hand he clearly wants to trade, but I can't see any reasonable takers, unless they were packaged together as more of a salary dump than a prospect heist. Even then it's highly unlikely.
There is one intriguing scenario though: The Yankees obtained Alex Rodriguez from the Rangers who actually agreed to pay $80m of what remained on his contract. If the Blue Jays consider Wells a somewhat sunk cost and agree to partially pay some of the remaining contract, and pair him with Halladay, is it reasonable that the Yankees would bite? They could trade back Matsui who is off the books next year, Swisher who is reasonably priced, and a combination of prospects, maybe Hughes and Austin Jackson who they say is a year away from the majors. That's a lot to give, but it gives the Yankees a Center Fielder and a proven AL East pitcher. I am all for Joba starting, but if the rotation looked like Sabathia, Halladay, Burnett, Wang, Pettitte, I'd gladly let Joba pitch in the pen as Mariano's replacement. I know this is highly unlikely, but it's pretty exciting to speculate.
Realistically the Jays have to consider Wells as a terrible unmoveable contract they will be forced to live with Halladay as a guy that would net a slew of prospects in a second. These are the likely contenders for Halladay as I see fit, if he were to be placed on the market:
Mets: They didn't give up much for Johan, it would certainly serve them well to give up whatever is left for Halladay strenghening a top heavy rotation.
Braves: The Braves have 2 top 5 prospects and 2 other top guys that they traded for Teixeira. They have produced a ton of talent and will continue to do so. If they are sniffing the playoffs they have what would be necessary to get Halladay.
A's: Trading for Holliday who will be a free agent next year was an un-A's move, why not another? They have the farm to do it if necessary and it would definitely give them the division over the Angels
Red Sox: The Yankees didn't trade for Johan because they figured CC would be available. Did the Sox not sign CC because they figured Halladay could be available?
Cardinals: Albert Pujols carries this team on his back quite literally, he needs some help if they want a chance.
I don't think Halladay will be traded, but I also don't think the Jays will be that good, so you never know. Teams will surely think more highly of their prosepcts during the financial times we face this year, but Roy is Roy, he'll command a lot and teams will be biting for the chance to get him, that is if he's made available.
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