Wednesday, February 18, 2009

The Big Hurt(ing)

The always great MLBTR points out an interview Ken Rosenthal had with Frank Thomas:

Frank Thomas cannot believe it.

He is healthy, an offensive force who likely is headed to the Hall of Fame.

And he cannot get a job.
...

I just don't get it. In my eyes, I know I can go out and hit 35 to 40 home runs, drive in 120 runs. That's the way I feel."

Thomas, who lives in Las Vegas, says he has been working out for five straight months; his 2008 season ended on Aug. 29 due to a right quadriceps injury.


It's ok for Thomas to feel he can still be productive, I can't imagine athletes have successful careers by being modest and doubtful, but he really shouldn't be too surprised here. Bobby Abreu got a 1 year $5m after asking for 3 years $45m. Thomas got a 2 year $18m deal from the Blue Jays after a truly great year on the A's in 2006. In 2007, according to Fangraphs, he was worth $9.9m and outplayed the first year of the deal, but last year he was only worth $1m.

If Abreu got about 10% of what he wanted, then maybe we could assume Thomas (compared to his last deal) could ask for 1 year deal for about $2m. If Thomas is asking for more than that, it should be the GMs who are surprised, but if he's only asking for a cheap 1 year deal, should he still be available?

Thomas obviously can only DH in the AL, so half the teams are automatically out of it. I have the time, maybe you do, might as well go through each team and see if there is a fit:

AL East
Orioles: Getting Pie puts Luke Scott at DH, and 1b is locked up by another DH Huff, no fit
Rays: They signed Burrell this year. You could argue Thomas would be a better more cost efficient signing, but they can't go back, no fit
Yankees: Damon, Nady, Swisher, Matsui, Posada can't play everyday, no fit
Blue Jays: I think Thomas burned that bridge last year, no fit
Red Sox: I believe Bib Papi is doing a decent enough job there, no fit

AL Central
Indians: Their money is tied to Hafner
Royals: If they were smart Billy Butler would be given the job outright, and they haven't really made any smart moves this offseason, except the Greinke extension. Jacobs, Butler, Gload, Shealy, they're just loaded with 1b/DH, no fit
Twins: I think we have a winner, oh wait they signed Jason Kubel to a 2 year $7m deal, no dice
Tigers: I don't think Sheffield is going anywhere, although his mouth is, no deal
White Sox: I haven't kept up with Thomas and GM Ken Williams relationship with one another, but I don't think it's gonna happen, no fit

AL West
Angels: Vlad, Abreu, Rivera, Matthews Jr. Hunter is already crowded, no fit
A's: They tried Thomas last year after he was released from Toronto, it could work if something falls apart mid season as they are familiar with him, but Giambi is cemented there for now, no fit
Mariners: Jeff Clement has to play somewhere, but it could work, they don't really have a 1b.
Rangers: Chris Davis and Blalock have to play with Young now at 3b, no fit

Out of all the teams in the AL only one, the Seattle Mariners, has a reasonable spot for Thomas and it's not even close to a no brainer either. That's not to say that Thomas isn't a better option than other club's Dh's but a team like the Twins can't afford to keep Kubel for $7m and Thomas. Rosenthal mentions how teams now are going for more cost effective young players, but after looking at this it seems more like teams don't have room as of now. The few teams that had a DH spot available have filled it.

I like Thomas, he's been a sensational hitter who's career is way better than he ever gets credit for. He's one of the few (maybe the only?) power hitter of the 90s that we really know for sure did not use steroids, and he still put up stats better than anyone else, in his good years. I have no doubt that he can still hit but his estimations of 40 HR 120 RBI are let's say a little high considering that would require 600 plate appearances, and he has not proven to be consistently healthy the last 5 years. I'm not sure how the Big Hurt has been contacting teams; if he expects to start somewhere then he's somewhat disillusioned, if he's just asking for a chance to play then he may a reason to be upset. However, at this point in the offseason we have already seen how the economic climate has effected the free agent market, it's hard for me to be surprised any more, I don't think Frank should be either.

UDATE: The Kid (Griffey) just signed with the Mariners, taking away the only team that had a spot for The Big Hurt. The deal is 1 year $2m guaranteed with incentives. It is a nice story and I'll root for Griffey to do well but let's not fool ourselves, he's no longer a great hitter. He's more or less average when healthy and can't be counted on to be healthy. He had only 18 dingers in 490 ABs last year playing in Cinci and Chicago, both hitters parks. He's also a pretty horrendous fielder now although fans used to Ibanez may not notice. I'll say he goes .250/.350/.430 with 12 homers in 250 abs, helping the Mariners win 74 games instead of 73.

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