A Response

I love the idea of having guest posts, and one quirk is that if I want to I can respond. I should say I wouldn't post something on here that I wholeheartedly disagree with, that just would ruin the flow of Ben's Baseball Bias, but I wouldn't want guest posts to be just like me that would defeit the purpose. Also, I'm going to be away this weekend and I may not have a chance to talk much about the Yankees on Sunday so consider this part of that. A lot of what Jeff said I agree with too, some main points:

• Hideki Matsui had more hype than he could live up to
• What used to be a strength, his durability, is now a major flaw
  
• His future on the Yankees should be nonexistent
• On the field Matsui has been a disappointment
  

Over his history with the Yankees, they have largely overpaid for Matsui's production. Luckily for our purposes Fangraphs WAR goes back to 2003, Matsui's first year with the Yankees. Looking at their dollar conversion, not counting this year Matsui has been worth $36.8m but he's been paid $60m. That's a large difference, and it's not even factoring another $13m he'll make this year with less than $13m in production. Overall Matsui stands to make $73m with the Yankees in his career while only giving us around $44m in production. So, it's hard to disagree with Jeff, Matsui has been a pretty large disappointment...on the field.

However, he makes an interesting point in the end about his popularity overseas. If Matsui's production has cost the Yankees about $30m what have they made up of that with having a Japanese all-star? Hard to say, I wouldn't know where to begin in calculating that, but imagine the Yankees at least would break even there.

Matsui is a case in point about paying for players in their 30s. Matsui's contract was up in 2005 and he signed a 4 year extension for $52m. There was just no way Matsui would live up to that contract, but the Yankees needed him for at least 2006 so they overpaid. It's something the Yankees can afford to do. They did it with Bernie Williams (who was paid about $50m over his last 4 years for replacement level production), and they're doing it with Jeter and Posada. It wasn't the first time and it won't be the last time the Yankees overpay a 35 year old at the end of a long contract.

I definitely agree with Jeff when he says Matsui shouldn't be starting next year for the Yankees. The problem isn't paying Matsui next year it's playing Matsui. If the Yankees give him $5m to sit on the bench, they'll likely make more than that just by having Japan watch him, compared to burning a bridge there in a messy breakup turning away Japanese fans, Kei Igawa already started that fire. As Jeff mentioned the Yankees have 3 young OFs that will need playing time next year and Damon would serve as a fine and better DH/LF than Matsui. So while actually playing Matsui would hurt the team, just having him may not.

It's frustrating watching a broken man DH for the Yankees this year, but so long as we're in first I can't say I mind too much. However, Jeff does and that's what he's here for. Oh and yea, congrats AJ on your prestigious award, hopefully it's just one of many in the future.

Papi Too? I Can't Believe It!

Who me (Manny)? Yes you! Couldn't be! Then Who? Papi stole the steroids from the steroid jar!

Manny Ramirez, we all knew you used steroids to get your numbers, but David Ortiz?

Of course I'm kidding, but in case you haven't heard, the NY Times is reporting that Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz tested positive in 2003.

I haven't really been counting but maybe we should start, that's now Manny, Papi, Arod, and Sosa who have had their names leak from an "anonymous" test. That's just not right. If someone or some group is in charge of leaking this out, would a slow drip create more publicity and gain them more money than a flash flood? I think it would.

As a Yankees fan I just want to laugh at the Red Sox and say haha your championships are tainted. And I kind of have already, but in reality it's not like the Yankees or any team for that matter isn't guilty. Also, getting into an argument over which team was doing it worse doesn't get anywhere either. "But if Manny and Papi weren't juicing, they don't come back from the 3 game deficit against the Yankees!" Well, how do you explain Jason Giambi, Kevin Brown, Alex Rodriguez (do we really think he only used on the Rangers?), and Gary Sheffield? There isn't some formula to decide who did the best without steroid users. We can't take Wins - 1.5(OPS of abusers)/ Losses + [(Days avoided on DL cause of HGH use)/tRA]= ExpWin%-Steroids, to determine that the Reds are now the best team of the steroid era. Bottom line is that every team cheated and every team benefited. Maybe those championships are tainted, but so long as everything is tainted it's kind of like nothing is right? So go ahead and enjoy the memories.

State Of the Yankees, Issue 1

This guest post is written by fellow blogger Jeff Winston. He blogs over at Two More Cents on Sports which is well worth your time provided you have any after you are done here. He offers a unique perspective on sports, is a huge baseball and Yankees fan and I look forward to hearing his take hopefully every week. So without further ado...

First, I would like to thank Ben for this opportunity to contribute to his blog. Any fan of baseball would benefit from viewing and keeping up with Ben’s Baseball Bias. I was not sure what I would write about for his blog, but I really like the idea of his suggestion to write some sort of post regarding the “State of the Yankees.” So that’s exactly what I’ll do when I get a chance to post on his blog. But enough of the small talk, onto the main course…

For as long as I can remember (1993), I have been a fan of the greatest franchise in all of sports; the New York Yankees. Despite my devotion and commitment to this team, however, this does not prevent me from recognizing the flaws of the Yankees. So for today’s edition of “State of the Yankees,” I’d like to share one of them with you:

Hideki Matsui – A player that in my opinion that has never lived up to the hype since coming over from Japan, “Hit-Deki” finds himself in the final year of his contract. Now I acknowledge that Matsui has had his share of clutch RBI over the years. But my biggest problem with our now everyday DH is that I think he has done nothing but decline since coming over, and it has reached a point this season of aggravation and frustration for this Yankees fan. Let’s take a look at some key stats in his yearly breakdowns:

2003 (163): .287 avg, 16 HR, 82 runs, 106 RBI

2004 (162): .298 avg, 31 HR, 109 runs, 108 RBI

2005 (162): .305 avg, 23 HR, 108 runs, 116 RBI

2006 (51): .302 avg, 8 HR, 32 runs, 29 RBI

2007 (143): .285 avg, 25 HR, 100 runs, 103 RBI

2008 (93): .294 avg, 9 HR, 43 runs, 45 RBI,

2009 (89 games as of July 27, 2009): .256 avg, 15 HR, 33 runs, 44 RBI

2009 (on pace according to ESPN): .256 avg, 25 HR, 56 runs, 78 RBI

There are two glaring things that I notice from looking at his stats: First, his durability is certainly not what it used to be (although he is on pace for 151 games, barring any injury). Second, he is not the RBI man that he used to be. Matsui hit 50 HR during his last season in Japan before coming over to the states. Thought of as a 40+ HR man a year, Matsui’s top mark was 31 in 2004. Despite the low HR total, he was still a very dependable RBI machine during his first couple of years, and always seemed to be one of the guys coming up with the big hit.

This year, not so much. And when looking into the future of this franchise, we see players such as Gardner, Cabrera and soon Austin Jackson possibly taking up all 3 outfield spots. This pushes Damon (who is certainly, in my opinion, playing his way to another contract) into the DH spot. Where does this leave Matsui? The question remains, will the Yankees bring him back? There are two sides to this coin. Side A dictates that he doesn’t fit into the future plans. Side B recognizes the immense popularity and publicity overseas in Japan that Matsui creates, and all of the revenue that he brings in; which could ultimately lead to his re-signing. Me personally, I want Side A. Let him go clog up a roster spot on another team. The Yankees will be better off without him next year.

On another note, I shall also end off each addition to the player of the week on the team. This week’s award winner is AJ Burnett, who in the past week has won two starts against fellow AL Easters Tampa and Baltimore. Congrats AJ, you have won the first ever “State of the Yankees” Player of the Week award. Have a nice pat on the back :-)

Thirsty Thursday!

I realize that having just one voice on this blog may get tiresome for my increasingly and exponentially growing audience. So, in the Thursday feature of my new schedule is the inappropriately titled Thirsty Thursday lineup which are simply just guest posts. Along with the guest posts you will possibly get my reaction to them and whatever other baseball news I'd like to touch up on throughout the day. But, the majority of major posts on Thursdays will be guest spots. Since the feature just started I only have one for this week, but I'm trying to get some others for the future and I can promise more than one for next week.

Say Whaaaaaaat?

The Giants just traded pitcher Tim Alderson for Freddy Sanchez.

That may seem similar to the Giants traded pitcher Scott Barnes for Ryan Garko headline, but it isn't. Tim Alderson is one heck of a pitcher. Not that the Giants didn't overpay for Garko, but they really and I mean really overpaid for Freddy freakin' Sanchez. Freddy Sanchez is a nice player, he hits .300 and plays some nice defense at a weak position. But Sanchez is over 30 and is owed $8m next year and in reality isn't a huge upgrade over Juan Uribe. Tim Alderson is a top 50 prospect and one of the best pitching propsects in the game. In 145.1 innings last year in A+ Alderson had a 2.64 FIP. In 72.2 innings so far this year in AA he has a 3.53 FIP. Not that Giants GM Brian Sabean is looking at FIPs but his ERAs are just as good, 2.79 last year and 3.47 this year. There is no underlying hard to see goodness here, Alderson is a sweet top prospect. He's arguably better than Kyle Drabek who the Phillies wouldn't trade for Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee! But apparently he's good enough for Freddy Sanchez.

Not too long ago a friend asked me if the Giants GM was any good. He saw that the Giants had the young Kung-Foo Panda tearing it up in the majors, knew Buster Posey was a top prospect, and was aware that that pitching prospects Bumgarner and Alderson would compliment Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain very nicely in the Giants future rotation. I told him he used to get some flack for being a bad GM just caddying Bonds to division titles and leaving the team in a mess once he left. But, that you kind of have to give him credit for the young players he's developed recently. It was essentially a complicated answer but this trade just made it very easy one, Brian Sabean is a horrible General Manager.

Neil Huntington on the other hand? He may not of gotten the best deal for Nate McClouth or Jason Bay, but he's given the Pirates a whole lot of good prospects and shed a whole lot of salary. And for a team that is "rebuilding" there isn't much more you could ask for.

Cliff Lee Trade Which Leads To More Halladay Talk

Wednesday is supposed to be a wild card day, but with the trading deadline looming, trades will take up most of the space here.

With that said the Indians and Phillies reached an agreement on Cliff Lee. The Phillies obviously get Cliff Lee and also Ben Francisco. In return the Indians get four minor leaguers- pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Jason Knapp, catcher Lou Marson, and shortstop Jason Donald. The Phillies get to keep top prospects Kyle Drabek and Dominic Brown and still get Lee, have to say that's a great move for them. That doesn't mean the players the Indians got aren't good, it's just that they aren't top flight prospects and Cliff Lee is basically a top flight pitcher. They are a rebuilding team and they got 4 quality players, but the difference from Halladay to Lee, while factoring how Lee is more affordable, shouldn't be the difference between top prospects and quantity of prospects. I said before that "the deal the Phillies want to give is more quantity than quality, and that's not something you want for Roy Halladay", I should have also said that about Cliff Lee or something similar.

What's interesting is Lou Marson, or at least the position he plays, catcher. Could Victor Martinez be traded before the deadline? Hard to say, there isn't much time left and the Red Sox are closer to a deal with Halladay than with V-Mart. Kelly Shoppach has been a major disappointment and V-Mart's future in the long term is likely at 1b, so the Indians needed a solution for catcher in the future anyways. Of course they could turn around tomorrow and trade V-Mart to the Sox or Rays and I wouldn't be surprised, but I don't think that will happen.

Now what about that Halladay trade? The only team bidding for Halladay besides the Red Sox were the Phillies, and now they just got Cliff Lee. The Jays have said they are waiting to be wowed but I don't see the Red Sox wowing the Jays when they are bidding against themselves. If the Jays wait until the offseason or during the season next year they won't get the value for Halladay that they'll get now, even the proposed Sox deal. Part of the appeal for Halladay was that you get him for a playoff run, another full season, and likely a good chance to resign him. A lot of that luster is gone next year.

The Yankees have steered clear of the Halladay rumors recently but if the Red Sox try playing their card to get him for cheaper, maybe the Yankees can sneak in and get him for a deal they feel is more reasonable. The Jays wanted Hughes and Joba and the Yankees passed will they re-enter if they can get Halladay for just one of them? I doubt it, but it's something I think the Yankees should try to do. Pre-season the Yankees relied on Wang to be in the rotation and now he's out for the year. Would it be so wrong of the Yankees to replace Wang with Halladay? People aren't going to like the Yankees no matter what they do, if they aren't entering or re-entering the Halladay talks because they don't want to look bad then that's just bad business.

At this point it would also be bad business for the Jays not to trade Halladay. In a bubble the rumored Red Sox Deal of Buchholz, Bowden, and x isn't bad. Given the circumstances it's actually a really good deal. I'll hold to my prediction last night that the Sox will get Halladay because it doesn't make sense for the Jays to hold on to him, and as a Yankee fan I'll hope that I'm wrong.

In case you don't want to read that rambling, here is the post-post recap:

• Indians got a dece deal for Lee, great deal for the Phillies
  
• V-Mart is probably staying in Cleveland
  
• Jays lose leverage for Halladay trade
  
• Yankees should enter the discussion
• Have a feeling the Red Sox get the Jays to pull the trigger
• I hope I'm wrong

UPDATE: Sorry, I'm an idiot. I forgot that the Indians have a top catching prospect already in Carlos Santana. So, Marson isn't a future catcher on the Indians which makes this deal more puzzling for the Indians. Unless of course it means a V-Mart trade is near, in which case Marson is major league ready to contribute. If that's not the case, why did the Indians take Marson? They couldn't have asked for OF Michael Taylor? It's one thing to acquire a nice group of young players, it's another to get ones that you can't use. Right now the Indians have 4 catchers (V-Mart, Shoppach, Marson, and Santana), if V-Mart isn't traded now or in the offseason the Indians acquired a player they could hardly use this year or in the future. Very questionable.

One Last For Tuesday, Even Though It's Wednesday Now

Nothing major just some updates and some blabbering by me:

There are more rumors that the Red Sox offer of Westmoreland, Buchholz, and Bowden is somewhat legit. It looks like there is a deal centered around Buchholz and Bowden, and the two teams are trying to figure out what 3rd or 3rd and 4th pieces will fit.

I've heard less about the Phillies offers tonight, but I wouldn't read too much into that. I also wouldn't read too much into Riccardi's self imposed deadline to deal Halladay, as that has passed and rumors are still buzzing.

In other trade news the Mariners have officially become sellers. Which for a Mariners fan isn't necessarily bad news compared to the years during the Bavasi era. Jarrod Washburn pitched well again tonight and he stands to be the obvious sell for the Mariners. The Yankees were interested in him last year, and there are obviously strong ties between the Brewers and Mariners given that the current Mariners GM worked under Melvin in Milwaukee. To add fuel to the fire, there is word that catcher Jeff Clement was pulled from his minor league game tonight and it wasn't because of injury. I don't think the Yankees have a use for a catcher however, so if Clement is really in a trade you have to figure it's with Washburn to Milwaukee for a SS, like everyone has been saying all week.

Finally Cliff Lee. Lost in the Roy Halladay shuffle is Cliff Lee who is being dangled out there as well. In general the Lee rumors have been runoff from Halladay ones. Basically, teams that thought the Halladay price was to steep have apparently moved their attention to Lee. One team of note is the Rays. They are in a rumored blockbuster with the Angels and Red Sox where the Angels get Kazmir, Rays get Lee, and Sox get V-Mart. I highly doubt something like that actually happens, but that is some large trade. Other Lee rumored teams have been the Dodgers who don't want to give up Kershaw/Billingsly for Halladay and of course the Phillies who can't iron out an agreement with the Jays for Halladay.

Since you didn't come here just to read rumors you can find elsewhere on the internet, I figure now would be a good time to give some predictions.

Halladay: I used to think Halladay would go to the Phillies, but now I think he'll go to the Red Sox. The Sox have great pitching depth, but Wakefield is on the DL, Dice-K is on the DL, Buchholz hasn't proven he can be more than a back-end starter for this year yet, Brad Penny is Brad Penny, and Smoltz who although has pitched better than your normal pitching stats would indicate, hasn't really done all that well. Basically the Sox have a lot of 4th and 5th starters who won't do them much good in a playoff race or playoff series, they have the goods to get Halladay and I think they pull the trigger.

Cliff Lee: To be honest I have no clue where this one is going. If Halladay gets traded first and the Phillies can get Lee without giving up Drabek or Brown then they seem like the likely choice. But that also keeps the door open for the Angels, Dodgers, and Rays. Alas, I'll choose the Rays. Lee is affordable next year and Kazmir should have enough trade value for the Rays to rid themselves of his contract. Another kind of wild rumor is the Rays trading Pena and/or Crawford to free up cap space. While I don't think the Rays would do that in the middle of a playoff race, I think Crawford has reached his peak and if they can get top value for him in the offseason it would be a good move. Desmond Jennings can slide in for Crawford next year for $10m less, giving the Rays a lot more financial flexibility.

Victor Martinez: Stays on the Indians. The Red Sox are the only team in on V-Mart and since I think they'll get Halladay I don't think they'll get V-Mart.

Jarrod Washburn: Pretty easy one, I say the Brewers. Makes too much sense not to do.

UPDATE (12:57 PM): It looks like Seattle has traded Jeff Clement and some other young pieces to Pittsburgh for SS Jack Wilson and P Ian Snell. I don't think this means the Mariners are now buyers after they were sellers, they needed a SS for next year and that's Jack Wilson. Wilson has long been thought of overpaid with his $8m price tag, but he's actually been worth about that every year. The Mariners didn't give up anyone that was really an impact player and they fill their SS need for this year and next, and get a Pitcher with some upside in Snell that will replace one of the spots in the rotation when Washburn and Bedard leave in free agency/trade. The Pirates meanwhile continue to shed salary in their efforts to rebuild. So, I was wrong about Washburn, he won't be going to the Brewers for a SS, but I guess I was right that Seattle would get a SS.

Trading Tuesday Fantasy Edition

In the future I may have more for fantasy info on Trading Tuesdays, but for this week that will mostly be left for Friday.

I do have some advice though. With the trade deadline looming you may be thinking it's now or never. And technically it is, but don't rush into a deal. You also don't want to overplay your hand. It's tough to find that balance but you can do it. Don't turn down a legit offer because you want to triple check you can't make more. But don't accept your first offer when there are 3 teams you see in the standings can use your spare saves/steals/power or what have you.

In one year leagues you should be looking to trade all young players for proven studs. Sure, Nolan Reimold may "break out" in the second half (wishful thinking- I own him), but if you have a title on the line do you really want to risk waiting to find out? I'd zone in on guys like Chipper Jones, the old Vets who will give you good numbers and aren't exciting to that 6th place team, you can get em cheap(er).

In Keeper Leagues you have to decide where you stand. If your team sucks then let yourself get ripped of slightly for draft picks or keepers, what do you have to lose? If your team is average and has a small chance of getting to the money then you at least owe it to your team to wait until the actual deadline to decide your fate. If you're 6 points behind the money, you don't want to trade Branyan and co. for a decent keeper only to find yourself regretting the decision a week or so later. Give your team a little more time just to be sure. If you have a chance to win then go for it goddammit. I'd trade potential keepers for massive amounts in quality. What's the difference between Johan Santana and Cliff Lee the rest of the way? Probably not much, and if Cliff Lee also nets you a closer, a better catcher and a good steals guy then why aren't you doing that deal?

I hope you follow my advice, and if you have any questions/comments don't be afraid to ask on this thread or email me, I promise a ridiculously quick response.

Rumor Has It...

That I'm getting sick of these Roy Halladay trade rumors.

Every second there is another headline from Buster Olney, John Heyman, Ken Rosenthal, Yahoo Sports, or what have you. It's hard to differentiate between what's substantial and what is just mumbo jumbo. One second Halladay is unlikely to be traded, the next a deal is immanent. Nonetheless here are the most likely suitors (if there are any):

Phillies: This shouldn't surprise anyone considering everyone said Halladay would go to the Phils on my poll. The Blue Jays want OF prospect Dominic Brown, Pitcher J.A. Happ, and pitching prospect Kyle Drabek. The Phillies don't want to give up Drabek, don't mind giving up Happ and would also part with SP Carlos Carrasco, OF Michael Taylor, and IF Jason Donald. Last year you'd take the deal with Carrosco, this year you'd want to look elsewhere.

Red Sox: Apparantely the Red Sox have already offered the Jays SP Clay Buchholz, SP Michael Bowden and OF prospect Ryan Westmoreland. I'm not sure who exactly the Jays want from the Red Sox but the Sox have made SP/SS Casey Kelly and RP Daniel Bard "untouchable". That still leaves Jed Lowrie, Junichi Tazawa available to the Jays.

Angels: The only two teams really in it right now are the Phillies and Sox, but the Angels were rumored to give up Jered Weaver and Brandon Wood in a deal.

Those are each team's final offer, I think you (the Jays) have to go with the Red Sox deal. Clay Buchholz is already major league ready, and Bowden ain't far behind. Carlos Carrasco's stock has really bottomed out, and nobody should be fooled to think J.A Happ is as good as his numbers suggest. He's already 26 years old and his FIP in the NL is over 4. In the AL he's a back end starter, a left arm is valuable, but not enough to trade Halladay for. Without knowing what the Jays want out of the Red Sox, if they can get Brown and Drabek from the Phillies then that might be the better deal. However, if the proposed deal is legit and the Sox add on someone else to it it would be hard for the Jays to decline.

Before these rumors starting heating up I heard that the Jays would definitely want a position player especially an infielder in a deal along with young pitching. Jason Donald is a fine SS prospect, but the deal the Phillies want to give is more quantity than quality, and that's not something you want for Roy Halladay. The Jays need impact players and the Red Sox offer is the only one that contains those with Buchholz and Westmoreland if he pans out, and there is always the option to add in Lowrie if the Jays want that IF. With all that said, Drabek and Brown could swing this deal in favor of the Phillies, but so far they haven't included them, and even with them it's not a significantly better deal for the Jays.

During this offseason I felt the Sox shoulda signed Teixeira to stick it to the Yankees. The Sox always try to make the perfect moves, but sometimes you got to flex your muscles and make a move. I think they are starting to realize this and that's why they are heating up with the Halladay rumors. If the Sox do a trade similar to those rumored, they may lose their pitching depth but they'd have a rotation of Beckett, Halladay, and Lester in the playoffs, next year and likely years after, why would Halladay leave Boston? Not that you were asking, but that's 3 pitchers in the top 12 in FIP, xFIP, tRA, and any other advanced metric you want to look at. Sick.

Trading Tuesday

To kick off the first Trading Tuesday segment, I had this great idea to compare the two Matt Holliday trades. Well unfortunately Fangraphs beat me to the punch. I need not talk about it because I agree with everything they say:

In the end, it’s hard to say if Oakland came out on the winning end of the two Holliday deals or not. In the long run, though, my gut says that they did.

That essentially sums it up. Brett Wallace will likely be a better player than Carlos Gonzalez, but we can't just forget how good Street has been. A dominant closer on a team fighting for the playoffs is a very valuable thing.

In Colorado in ‘09, batters are hitting just .195 against the 25-year-old right-hander, which is the lowest batting-average-against that Street has posted since his rookie year in ‘05 (.194 average). His strikeout rate is up to 10.20 K/9, while his walk rate is back down to 2.13 BB/9. Street’s line-drive rate is also down about three percent. His fastball is almost 2 mph harder than it was in 2007-08.

I'd also like to point out how for the Cardinals, Brett Wallace might not have been able to stick at 3rd. If that's the case you know he can't move to 1st, and being a short and stocky guy I don't think he'd make a great outfielder. So, in a vacuum maybe they gave up too much for Holliday but fortunately we don't live in vacuums. Wallace's career value will likely be more than 2 months of Matt Holliday, but if Holliday is the difference between making the playoffs or not, is Wallace > Playoff Revenue + Supplemental Draft Picks? Tough question but I don't think the Cardinals are going to regret their answer.

Hall of Fame: Rickey Yay, Rice Nay

Rickey Henderson and Jim Rice were inducted into the Hall of Fame yesterday. At least one of them was deserving. It's been said by Bill James that if you cut Rickey's career in half you would have 2 worthy Hall of Famers. Judging by the graph over at Beyond the Box Score, they seem to confirm that:


According to Sean Smith's historical Wins Above Replacement database, Rickey Henderson has 113.1 WAR. If we cut that in half to 56.5 Rickey still has a higher WAR than current Hall of Famers like Joe Medwick, Lou Boudreau, Bill Dickey, Joe Gordon, Enos Slaughter, Tony Perez, Luis Aparicio, and well you get the point.

What about the totals of his other stats? Rickey got on base 5,343 times, 4th most of all time. If we halve that we get about 2,672. Well, that's about the same as Bill Dickey, and more than other Hall of Famers like Lou Boudreau, Hank Greenberg, and Mickey Cochcrane. Rickey also stole a lot of bases, and we mean a lot, 1,406 to be exact. That's 468 more than 2nd highest Lou Brock and 468 steals would place Rickey 42nd all time! That's more than leadoff/sb threats Craig Biggio, Juan Pierre, Marquis Grissom, and Chuck Knoblauch. Just the difference between Rickey and the 2nd best in terms of steals, makes him one of the best stolen base threats of all time. Rickey also walked 2190 times, if we half that it's laughable how many more that is than current Hall of Famers that it's not even worth mentioning.

Except maybe one, Jim Rice. One half of Rickey's career would give him 1,095 walks, Jim Rice walked 670 times and over 10% of those were because he was "the most feared hitter (in an arbitrary period of time)" via the intentional walk. You don't have to get walks to be a great player or even a Hall of Famer, and Rice was a great player just great players shouldn't get into the Hall of Fame. Rice's tOPS+ (which is the "OPS+ of this split relative to the player or team's overall OPS") at home in his career is 115, away it's 85. Certainly you can expect players performances to be better at home than away, but that is a startling difference, Fenway Park really inflates your stats.

Jime Rice's career was cut short and he only played until he was 36. I have heard people say that it makes his career even more impressive, but the Hall of Fame doesn't or shouldn't make exceptions for players who had their careers end when they are 36 rather than 42. It's not like Jim Rice missed 3 years of his prime fighting in WWII. Also, when you say his career was cut short it magnifies the double plays that Rice grounded into. Jim Rice is 6th all time in GIDP and the 5 players above him have over 4000 more Plate Appearances than Rice. It's safe to say Rice would have one of the worst PA/GIDP ratio's of all times if not the worst. Simply put, Rice made a shitton of outs considering how his career was cut short and how he's considered a HOF'er.

Rice did a lot of things, he has over 2,400 hits almost 1,500 RBI, he's won an MVP, and for a while he was one of the better hitters in the league. That is all fine and dandy, but it's not Hall of Fame worthy when you look at the big picture (the park he played in, and the outs he created, and his lack of defense). Ricky on the other hand is one of the best players to ever play this game. Well, so many players have played that you could put Jim Rice in that category too, but Rickey is one of the best players to play the game that's in the Hall of Fame, he's that good. Jim Rice was done at 36 and it's arguable if he's worthy of induction, if Rickey Henderson retired at 33 he'd have a better career than Rice and still be worthy of the Hall of Fame. Some player.

Brian Bannister Knows More Than His GM

Brian Bannister is a smart guy. He's long been aware of the role that statistics play in baseball. After his rookie year in 2007 where Banny had a 3.87 ERA, he realized his BABIP was an unsustainable .266, he was vocal about that and how he'd have to change some things to keep up his performance. The next year (last year) Bannister tried improving his peripherals (k/9, bb/9, etc.) knowing those have the greatest affect on his performance. It didn't work out to well as his ERA ballooned to 5.76. By trying to increase his stirkeouts by using his fastball more, Bannister fell on his face giving up tons of homers.

This year he's kept up his saber-friendly work and so far the results have paid off- he has a 3.76 ERA relatively in line with his 4.03 FIP. Listen to this great interview if you want hear what he changed this year, but if not I'll give you the crux of it. Brian Bannister has looked at his PitchFX and now uses that to help his performance. Rather than try to help his peripherals and strike more guys out, he ditched his 4-seam that was an extreme fly ball pitch (leading to the homers), and has replaced it with a cutter and a power change to get more ground balls. According to the PitchFX data, his power change has the same vertical movement as Brandon Webb, and is the reason behind his 48.4 GB%. Banny knows that BABIP isn't sustainable, but that GB% is, which will go a long way in keeping him at the big leagues.

The humor in all of this is that Brian Bannister is more knowledgeable about statistics than his own GM. Dayton Moore has gone on record as saying he doesn't care about defensive stats. Brian Bannistery uses xFIP, BABIP, and PitchFX data to mold himself into a usable major league pitcher. I'm not sure if Dayton Moore has ever looked at PitchFX data, any fielding independent pitching statistic, or even knows what BABIP stands for. Brian Bannister may be the only player who has a real grasp on this stuff, and he plays for maybe the only GM who doesn't, who woulda thunk it?

Moneyball Report

Here's the first (of hopefully many) Moneyball Reports, on Moneyball Mondays. Here I'll be taking a weekly look at team leaders/losers in OBP, UZR, and FIP and seeing what changes take place week to week. Since this is the first one and it's rebooting my blog, I'll make it somewhat of a primer.

If nothing else, Moneyball told us the importance of OBP, at least compared to the previous standards in baseball like batting average and runs batted in. So, what teams are getting on base a lot and what teams aren't.

Team Leaders in OBP: Yankees (.359), Dodgers (.353), Angels (.350), Rays (.349), Red Sox/Indians (.345)

Bottom Feeders in OBP: Giants (.306), Padres (.307), Royals (.311), Mariners (.314), Rangers/Reds (.316)...just for show the A's have the 6th worst at (.319)

However, the true point of Moneyball wasn't that the A's valued OBP, it was that Billy Beane through statistics and analysis took advantage of underutilized assets in baseball, just one of those being OBP. When the book was made (and before that since Beane had been doing this for some time, and several others have too just Beane got most of the credit) not everyone realized the importance of OBP, and Beane was able to snag players like Scott Hatteberg for cheap. Nowadays, everyone (for the most part) realizes that OBP is a vital statistic, so it's not like the A's can have a low payroll and pay top dollar for OBP. They have to find other ways to evaluate players that teams haven't taken advantage of, and right now there is no better way to do that than defense. So let's take a look at which teams have the best/worst defense so far this year according to Ultimate Zone Rating.

Team Leaders in UZR: Giants (38.7), Padres (38.2), Rays (37.0), Mariners (35.9), Tigers (24.1)...just for show A's are 12th (7.4)

Bottom Feeders in UZR: Nationals (-30.9), Mets (-30.7), Royals (-27.8), Twins (-23.3), Red Sox (-21.0)

If you stopped right now and took a look at the standings you would see there are several teams with bad OBP that have winning records, and a chance at the playoffs. This isn't because OBP is a bad stat, it's that OBP isn't the only stat. There are many ways to win games, and defense is definitely one of them. The Giants for instance have the worst OBP in the majors, but are contending for the wild card largely because they also have the best defense. The Mariners also have among the worst OBP in the majors and have a winning record because of their stellar defense (and some luck but we'll get to that later).

When Voros McCracken discovered that "major-league pitchers don't appear to have the ability to prevent hits on balls in play" all hell seemingly broke loose in the world of sabermetrics, and defense independent pitching statistics were born. Sometimes that line drive by the batter goes for a double down the line, sometimes it's hit right at the 3b. Sometimes that popup is caught by the 2b, sometimes it falls right between in and the right fielder. This doesn't mean that the hits pitchers give up is irrelevant or anything like that, it just means that once the batter touches the ball (so long as it's not a hr) the pitcher has no control over where it goes. You can argue against this all you want, but even the best pitchers in the game have their BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) vary from year to year. Pedro Martinez is largely considered one of the best pitchers, if anyone could control their BABIP it would be him right? Than explain why in 1999 his BABIP was .343, and the next year it was .253? Or why in 2004 his BABIP was .303 leading to an ERA of 3.90, when the next year it was .257 leading to an ERA of 2.82? You can't other than saying not even Pedro can control his BABIP.

However, there are things that Pedro and every other pitcher do control, and those are their home runs allowed, walks, strikeouts, hit batters, and their fly ball/ground ball percentages. So using the things a pitcher can control, we can take out the fielding aspect of baseball and really hone in on what a pitcher is doing. There are many defense independent pitching statistics, DIPS, FIP, xFIP, LIPS, DICE, QERA, tRA, but for our sakes I'll use the simplest one FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) developed by Tom Tango.

Team FIP Leaders: Braves (3.63), Red Sox(3.77), Giants (3.80), Dodgers (3.86), Rockies (3.88)

The Mariners, Rangers, and Giants (among other teams) all have lower team ERAs than team FIPs, they also all have excellent defenses. The Nationals and Royals have lower FIPs than they do ERAs, they also have crappy defenses. Luck can play a part in this too, but when we are talking about teams with over 850 innings pitched, it's less of a factor than it is with one pitcher with 150 innings pitched. Teams have long known excellent defense helps the pitcher, but now with UZR and other tools, they are able to quantify defense. You would be surprised, but not every GM (most notably Royals GM Dayton Moore) buys into these defensive stats, and defensive independent pitching stats, so if there is ever a Moneyball stat that is being overlooked, you are looking at it right now.

Now we will talk about expected records. Bill James has long done his Pythagorean Expectation on what a teams record should be based off of their runs scored and runs allowed. Although a great bullpen will help, a large part of 1 run games can be associated with luck. Essentially, the larger difference between my runs scored minus runs allowed, the better record I can expect. If I win 20-1, 18-4, 7-0, and then lose 2-1, 3-2, 4-2 my record will be 3-3 even though I would have outscored my opponents by 36 runs. I'd have a winning % of .500, when I should have one of .927. So sometimes teams win a lot of 1 run and close games and have deceiving records because in some cases they have scored less runs than their opponent. Let's take a look at the Expected Records we should have in baeball right now.

Team Leaders in ExpWin%: Dodgers (.633), Rays/Red Sox (.585), Yankees (.571), Phillies (.570), Rockies (.560).

Most of those seem in line and they should, but it's not exact. Take a look at the Yankees, they are in first place in the AL East, above the Red Sox and Rays except according to this they should be in third. So, if nothing else changes don't be too shocked to find the Yankees slip a few games while the Red Sox and especially the Rays rise a few. The Houston Astros have made some noise recently rising to only 2 games behind the division lead, which makes us ask are they legit? If you look at their ExpWin% you'll see it is .479, making that an easy answer, no they are not legit. The Astros have given up more runs than they have scored, yet they are 50-48 and 2 games behind the Cubs for the division lead.

Moneyball Moves: The Mariners are now having their rumors heat up about trading Jarrod Washburn. That would be a good move for Saber-Friendly GM Jack Z. The Mariners have a winning record yet have been outscored this year, can you say lucky? They really shouldn't be contending in the first place, so to expect them to get better to reach the playoffs would be insane, trading their soon to be free agents like Washburn would be a good move, one would even say a Moneyball Move. I will get to more trade talk tomorrow during Trading Tuesday.

There you have it, our first Moneyball report. If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or recommendations please comment on this post and I'll get to it. The next reports won't have the lengthy explanations, just the information with some other individual performances that are of note to highlight. Hope you all enjoyed this, because you will be seeing more of it in the future.

Changes Coming, and They're Almost Here!

Ok, so I warned you all that this shit might just get real, or more real if you will. What I meant by that was I decided to add some scheduling to this blog. Instead of having random posts at random times I'll have a designated topic to write about depending on the day, the times will still probably be random though. I'll still post stuff that comes to mind, breaking news, or just something I want to say about the world of baseball, but in addition to all that there will be some long needed structure. Really it's a win win for the reader(s) of my blog.

So without further ado here is the B³en's B³aseball B³ias Schedule (this will probably be the last time you see this blog mentioned with the those 3 little 3's, unless of course you like it)...

Money Ball Monday: On Monday I will talk about Money Ball and Money Ball influenced ideas. Maybe mention some guys getting on base more than you thought, some nice steals by GMs, you get the idea. Really anything that is credited to that book that Billy Beane wrote, whether he deserves it or not.

Trading Tuesday: Here I will discuss trades that have to deal with not only real life but fantasy (sounds sexy right?). So, lots of stuff potential here with the trading deadline approaching in both arenas. You can also expect some Retro-Trading Tuesdays if I'm really feeling groovy where I analyze old trades.

Wild Card Wednesday: If this scheduling crap annoys you than Wednesday is your day. One day with absolutely no strings attached just like this blog was before it sold out, gotta keep the peeps happy.

Thirsty Thursday: I can't do this alone (well I can and have but...) so once a week I'll hopefully have some guest posts. This stupid cheesy nickname has nothing to do with the topic, so to force it to make sense I'll buy a round for the guest poster if we happen to go out on the Thursday they post.

Fantasy Friday: Pretty self-explanatory. In case that's not self-explanatory though there will be posts about fantasy baseball regarding strategy, trades, waiver-wire, sleepers, busts, etc. If you needed that explanation you are an idiot, so much so that you'll really need the fantasy advice.

Stat Saturday: Probably won't do too much on the weekends because if I'm not drunk then I'll definitely be hung over. Nonetheless it's safe to expect some Saturday stuff dealing with some leaderboards on some cool stats and other things like that. This won't be a retarded Did You Know? segment.

Lazy Sunday: Everyone likes to be lazy on Sundays, and since it's easiest for me to write about the Yankees, I'll do that on Sundays. It will simply be a mixed bag of anything that can involve the Yankees because anything specific wouldn't be lazy enough.

Once again, this blog won't be reduced to just one post on these topics a day, you'll still get my random posts just in addition to that you'll get some of this good stuff. I am also finishing talks with some people (very important people) that may help out with a post here and there so it won't only be my boring non-proofread voice on this blog. This won't start all until Monday, July 27th and I reserve the right to miss an occasional day being as (1) Not enough people follow this (yet?) and (2) I don't get paid (although I laugh anytime I see the Google Ad-Sense, as if any of you would really click that).

With that said, I am officially taking my first announced blogging vacation until the big Grand Re-Opening on Monday, July 27th. I hope the same fan(s) will be there and maybe some new ones, cya then.

Shit Just Got Real

This blog may be getting more serious over the next couple of days/weeks, or at least more structured. Just thought I'd let you know.

Minaya, Are You There?

This proposed deal probably isn't legit but has anyone seen the rumored deal that Jon Heyman mentioned for Halladay that Minaya rejected?

In return for Halladay, the Mets trade Fernando Martinez, Jon Niese, Bobby Parnell, and Ruben Tejada to Toronto.

It may not make sense for the Mets to try to win this year but the Mets aren't a rebuilding team. Certainly the Mets are going to try to win the division next year and a trade for Roy Halladay would clearly increase their chances of accomplishing that goal (for the first time in 3 years mind you). That's one hell of a deal for Roy Halladay. If this trade rumor is legitimate the Mets could have fleeced the top 2 pitchers in baseball not named Tim Lincecum.

Let's quickly take a look at the rumored players involved:

Bobby Parnell: Classic case of the failed starter turned into reliever. He has a great arm and he's showed some ability this year but his whip is still 1.83, and as a reliever that just ain't too good.

Ruben Tejada: He's a young SS prospect for the Mets, but they have Jose Reyes there for the next few years unless they have plans on breaking up the core that we haven't heard about. Maybe he can/will play 2b though, but is a future 2b batting .278 with no power and not much speed in AA really a guy you can't trade for Roy Halladay?

Jon Niese: He's a pretty nice pitching prospect but he doesn't project to be anything more than a 3-4 starter. He was bad last year at the major league level, struggled mightily in AAA to start the year but has been very good of late. But still, Tim Redding, Fernando Nieve, and Livan Hernandez all got extended looks at the majors this year over Niese, so I'm struggling to believe the Mets hold this kid that highly.

Fernando Martinez: Here is the prized prospect, but in a trade for Roy Halladay you have to give that up. He could be a great player, but he's not enough to hold up a trade for Roy Halladay.

The Phillies rumors involve them givin up starting pitcher prospect Kyle Drabek who arguably rates higher than even Fernando Martinez, plus another 2 top 50 prospects. This rumored Mets offer involves Fernando Martinez and really just some glorified roster filler, which really should be an auto accept for the Mets. I don't think Minaya is a good GM, but if he actually rejected this deal he would be considered one of the worst GMs in my mind. For the sake of Mets fans I hope this rumor is true, so Minaya is fired and the Mets can move on because what he's been doing with the Mets just hasn't worked. Minaya/Pedro get credit for changing the "culture" around the Mets, but what culture did they change? Minaya has made the playoffs once, wasted millions of dollars on Pedro, and couldn't build a team around the best core in all of baseball (Johan Santana, David Wright, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran). This isn't Steve Phillips, but it isn't much better.

Some Under the Radar Guys

I'm not sure if any of these players are on the block or not, but regardless here are some players that can help out a contending team, or just the team they are on if given a real chance:

Seth Smith: He has a .402 wOBA, better than several all-stars like Morneau, Hunter, Teixeira, Braun, and well you get the point. He's finally starting to get playing time and the Rockies are a contending team, but even they might not realize what they have. He's more or less a platoon OF cause historically he can't hit lefties, but he mashes everything else. Matt Holliday may have ruined some of the adjusted batting stats for guys in Colorado this year, but Smiths OPS+ this year is 138. He's also been above average in LF. This guy has hit very well in AAA in 2007 and 2008, and it's carried over in the majors last year and this year. If he ever learns how to hit lefties Smith will be an all-star caliber player, not unlike his former teammate Matt Holliday, but even without that he's a great player.

Marco Scutaro: Scutaro jumped on the scene early this year with some power we have never seen before, and since then while his performance has dropped, his name has completely fallen eventhough he's still been a useful player. Since his 5 homer April Scutaro still has a .370 OBP and has played awesome defense as usual at short stop. His season totals are a solid .285/.383/.415, and only Hanley Ramirez and Derek Jeter have put up better WAR. All-star level SS
at around $1.5m = underrated I'd say.

Nyjer Morgan: The Pirates traded Morgan so they could get Milledge, and while Milledge still has a lot of untapped potential we are getting close to the point where that's a moot point. Nyjer Morgan meanwhile has been one of the better CFs in the league this year. He defense is more or less unparalleled, 25.4 UZR/150 in LF and 20.9 in CF. His bat has been about league average his entire career which makes him seem well average, but his top of the line defense in CF makes him one of the better OFs out there and definitely underrated. The Nationals may have gotten him just to take Milledge off their hands, but regardless getting Morgan has been a great pickup.

Joel Pineiro: I think it's safe to say that Duncan and LaRussa have done it again, Pineiro looks pretty, pretty legit. Forget the fact he only strikes out 3.75 every 9 innings, his k/bb is an excellent 4.25 and his 3.09 isn't a product of luck when you realize his FIP is even lower (2.92). Also, nobody in baseball kills more worms than Pineiro (60.8 GB%). For all the talk you heard about all-star snubs, Pineiro was probably the biggest.

These guys have already played better than some all-stars this year and if given the chance to play, would have as well. Not every good deadline deal needs to involve Roy Halladay, and not every successful is full of big name players, these are the kind of guys that help teams win championships.

Who Has The Most Trade Value?

Fangraphs just finished their solid Trade Value rankings modeled slightly after Bill Simmon's NBA version, and the winner is...

#1: Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay: 3.9 WAR

I might just have to retire his jersey if I keep doing this list going forward, because unless he gets hurt or takes a big step back, it’s hard to see anyone passing him for the next five years. His on field value puts him in the discussion with the best players in the game, but his contract is just so unbelievably team friendly that no one else comes close to his overall value to their club. Ramirez, for instance, will make $64 million from 2010 to 2014 - Longoria will make $21 million, and then the Rays will have two more options that would keep him in TB at $11 million per year for 2015 and 2016. Crazy. He’s going to be paid like a league average back-end starting pitcher through a potential Hall-Of-Fame prime. Agents, this is the template of what not to do with your best client going forward.

I thought it was going to be between Longoria, Hanley, and Upton but I wasn't sure who they would place first. Hard to argue with the Longoria choice. I was aware that the Rays signed him long term last year, but I didn't realize how team-friendly that contract actually was. I figured in my mind it would be similar to Hanley's not realizing Hanley signed after a few years of solid performance where Longoria signed it after a couple months.

As Dave Cameron mentioned, from 2010-2014 Longoria will make $21m, last year alone in a shortened rookie season Longoria was worth $24.1m and this year he's already been worth $17.6m. Essentially if Longoria got a career ending injury today the Rays would have already gotten more than their money's worth on Longoria. So, if any team in the league offered any swap for Longoria that the Rays would hang up the phone. Even if the Cards offered Albert, the Marlins with Hanley, or the Dbacks with Upton, the Rays would take Longoria. That was the point of this series, to find that guy, and it seems like that guy is Longoria. With just Longoria one could say the Rays should be good for a long time, the fact the Rays also have Ben Zobrist (just missed the cut), James Shields (#27), David Price (#25), and BJ Upton (#21) on the list means they will be very good for a very long time.

The Votes Are In!

And according to all (3) of you, Halladay is going to the Phillies!

I agree with the fan base, Halladay to the Phillies makes the most sense. I guess I'm not 100% sold that him going to the Phillies is more likely than him not being traded, but I do seriously think he'll end up with the Phillies. Kyle Drabek is a good prospect, but it's likely that he'll be lucky to have a career as valuable as Halladay will have for 1.5 years on the Phillies. He's not David Price or Tommy Hanson, meaning he's not untouchable, the Phillies will cave soon.

With all of that said, the Yankees are just one injury away from getting him. The Yankees can say all they want how passing on Johan was the right move because now they have Sabathia and Hughes and Melky but if Joba/Burnett/Sabathia/Pettitte gets hurt the Yankees will need another starter. They're already relying on Sergio Mitre for a little, it would be hard to rely on Mitre plus another guy likely worse than Sergio Mitre. So I don't think that other starter will be a stretched out Aceves, it would be Halladay. However, beyond an injury in the next couple weeks I don't see the Yankees obtaining Halladay, or any team other than the Phillies.

Fantasy Time - Hitting

We did the Pitchers, let's do some hitters.

Hitters I like:

Alexei Ramirez: I don't like to take 2nd half performances of the past as gospel but last year Alexei hit .269 with 14 homers and 48 RBI after the break, quite good for a rookie 2b. This year Alexei started out hitting .214 with 1 homer in April and since then he's hit an even .300 with 10 homers and 33 RBI. ZiPs projects him to hit .290 with 9 homers and 30 RBI in the 2nd half, but I think he can easily top those power numbers. He won't keep up his 25 steal pace, but he should be able to get 15 homers and 45 RBI. As an Alexei owner I was shaking in my boots that he and Chris Davis would destroy my team this year and possibly next. Chris Davis single handily destroyed my team for this year, but at least now I'm confident Alexei will not only be very productive in the 2nd half but will be a viable keeper for next year.

Dexter Fowler: This guy has been up and down all year but for now it looks like he'll play every day. The SBs should be there (although don't expect 25 but ~20) and he could run into a few homers. Nothing special but you'll take it.

BJ Upton: This one is pretty obvious. He was brutal until late May (when he was recovering from shoulder surgery) and since then he's been great. He steals more than anyone not named Jacoby or Carl (I wish he had a cooler 1st name) and he can hit 10 2nd half homers. His RBI won't be great considering he leads off but his runs should continue to be with that great lineup behind him. Since he was more or less injured to start the year it's safe to throw out those early season numbers, don't look at his season totals and come away unimpressed this is the same guy you (or me actually) spent your 2nd round pick on and rightfully so.

Some guys I like that you can get for cheap or maybe pickup:

Dan Uggla: Any time you take Dan Uggla you have to make sure his average won't derail your team, but if you are in a place where he won't kill you there he's worth obtaining. His LD%, FB%, and HR/FB% are all around his career norms but his BABIP is 40 points below where it should be. Uggla is a streaky hitter and a 2b batting .227 may be easy to acquire. If that's the case I'd say go for him and enjoy your .260 15 homers from your 2b slot.

JJ Hardy: Another middle infielder that has been unlucky, is streaky, and has a lot of power potential. Enough time has passed where the team owning him should be frustrated. Skip Schumaker may seem like a fine replacement but I'd axe him or throw him in a deal with another dece hitter or starter and get Hardy.

Lastings Millege: The Pirates didn't acquire him so he could play in AAA all year. Once he's healthy he'll be called up and he's likely the only 10 hr/10 sb threat left on your waiver wire, why not take a chance?

Jerry Hairston Jr.: The injury to Bruce should secure more PT for Jerry, and just his position eligibility alone has value. He should be eligible at 3b, SS, and OF, you can probably find a better 3b or OF on the wire, but it would be hard finding a better SS. Stop debating on picking up Willie Bloomquist right now and just pickup Hairston Jr. already.

Hitters I really like but c'mon:

Ben Zobrist: Zorilla has been utterly insane this year. He's eligible at 2b, SS, and OF, so even if he put up average numbers he'd still have a lot of value. However, he's put up dazzling numbers- .297, 17 homers, 52 RBI, 50 runs, and 11 sbs. Zorilla is on pace for 30+ homers 20+ steals, about a .300 average and almost 100 runs and RBI, to go with a very patient approach at the plate so I obviously like him as a hitter. However, this just seems a little bit too good to be true. I saw Ben Zobrist start at SS for the Rays in 2007 on opening day and the friend I was with and I just made fun of this no name SS so maybe that is scarred into my brain, but seriously how could Ben Zobrist actually keep this up? Like I said, his patient approach should make him a solid hitter but I have my doubts he'll sustain a HR/FB % on par with the Carlos Pena's and Adam Dunn's of the world. I'd love to have Zobrist on my team for the rest of the season and as a keeper, but don't make him untouchable in trade talks, if someone thinks of him as a top 3 rounder next year you might want to think about making the move.

Joe Mauer: Once again I love Joe Mauer, he was on my favorite players list, but he isn't this good in fantasy that is. He hits Ground Balls 50% of the time and yet still has 15 homers, that just isn't sustainable. In May (Mauer didn't play in April) in 99 ABs he had 11 homers, since then in 142 ABs he's hit 4. Last year he hit a HR in every 59 ABs, this year it's been every 16 but since June it's been every 35. So Mauer may have become a better power hitter, but not near the rate he's been all year, more like the rate he's posted since June. All of this doesn't mean that Mauer isn't a great player because he's still arguably a top 50 player without the homers and .370 average, but to continue the theme here if someone treats Mauer like a top 20 player and is willing, you have to look into that trade.

Hitters I'd trade to get peak/near peak value:

Adrian Gonzalez: This one may be a little to late since he has slumped hard recently, but Petco prevents him from becoming a top bat and trading him would really kill the Padres fan base. A trade out of Petco would obviously make him a huge buy immediately but I don't think it'll happen this year. He's truly a great hitter but as long as he's in Petco he won't be a top tier bat and you'd be better off trading him while people may think he is premier. ZiPs calls for him to have 16 2nd half homers batting .270, and with the crappy team around he won't knock many guys in or score many runs. If anything his walk rate will continue to rise, helping him as an overall player but killing him in fantasy.

Grady Sizemore: I love Grady and his Ladies and almost put him in my favorite players list, but the fact is this is not his year. He has a bum elbow and at any point the Indians may decide it's best to just shut him down and play for next year. If that's the case owning Grady in 1 year leagues can really fuck you. For what it's worth his speed has been a little concerning too. Last year he stole 38 times only getting caught 5 times with a speed score of 6.5, this year he has 9 steals and has been caught 7 times with a speed score of 5.4. That may be a fluke but listen to his speed scores since 2005: 7.2, 7.6, 6.4, 6.5, 5.4. That's not a good trend. Of course Grady could become a fine 3 hitter that doesn't need top of the line speed and SBs, but the window for a 4040 may have passed and I'd say I'm a little bearish on him even in keeper leagues. So, with Grady's little hot streak before the break, if you could find someone willing to treat him as a first rounder I'd make the deal.

Hitters a lot of people talk about for the 2nd half that I'm not really willing to necessarily obtain:

Aubrey Huff: If you can get Aubrey Huff for a middle reliever or a middling starter than sure make the deal, but I can't get myself to rely on a good 2nd half for Huff. I'll probably end up being wrong here but whatever.

Jimmy Rollins: He's still a fine buy low provided you actually buy low on him. A lot of his failures this year could be attributed to bad luck, like his .242 BABIP. However that doesn't tell the entire story. This year Rollins has also had his LD% drop and his IFF% increase, both of which are not good signs. The balls that Rollins puts into play are being caught at an unsustainable rate but he's also hitting the ball hard fewer times and popping it up more times. He's also never been a high BABIP hitter to begin with, his career BABIP is just .297, so it's not like he should be hitting close to .300 or anything near that. Sure, there is no way that Rollins ends the year at .230, but in general don't expect him to come close to evening out his stats this year. Expect him to bat around .260 with some pop for a SS (which could only mean 5-7 homers) and steal about 20 bases, and pay accordingly. Don't expect a 1st round pick performance prorated over the 2nd half.

Hitters I just don't like:

Torrii Hunter: He's injured now and when he comes back don't expect MVP performance.

Brandon Inge: He's had such terrible seasons I can't expect this to continue. Career HR/FB% of 10.9%, this year it's over 20%. I don't care that he hits better at 3b, he's not this good.

Hunter Pence: This my friends is what you call a tease. He's hitting around .300 and looks to finish at about 20/20, sounds like a top pick right? Well thanks to the Fantasy Ball Junkie, you realize he's only on pace for 69 RBI and 84 runs. There is probably a pickup OF that can give you what he will in the 2nd half. Don't chase those 10 steals, you can pick those up elsewhere. He's an above average OF disguised as a top one, don't always believe what you see.