Rumor Has It...

That I'm getting sick of these Roy Halladay trade rumors.

Every second there is another headline from Buster Olney, John Heyman, Ken Rosenthal, Yahoo Sports, or what have you. It's hard to differentiate between what's substantial and what is just mumbo jumbo. One second Halladay is unlikely to be traded, the next a deal is immanent. Nonetheless here are the most likely suitors (if there are any):

Phillies: This shouldn't surprise anyone considering everyone said Halladay would go to the Phils on my poll. The Blue Jays want OF prospect Dominic Brown, Pitcher J.A. Happ, and pitching prospect Kyle Drabek. The Phillies don't want to give up Drabek, don't mind giving up Happ and would also part with SP Carlos Carrasco, OF Michael Taylor, and IF Jason Donald. Last year you'd take the deal with Carrosco, this year you'd want to look elsewhere.

Red Sox: Apparantely the Red Sox have already offered the Jays SP Clay Buchholz, SP Michael Bowden and OF prospect Ryan Westmoreland. I'm not sure who exactly the Jays want from the Red Sox but the Sox have made SP/SS Casey Kelly and RP Daniel Bard "untouchable". That still leaves Jed Lowrie, Junichi Tazawa available to the Jays.

Angels: The only two teams really in it right now are the Phillies and Sox, but the Angels were rumored to give up Jered Weaver and Brandon Wood in a deal.

Those are each team's final offer, I think you (the Jays) have to go with the Red Sox deal. Clay Buchholz is already major league ready, and Bowden ain't far behind. Carlos Carrasco's stock has really bottomed out, and nobody should be fooled to think J.A Happ is as good as his numbers suggest. He's already 26 years old and his FIP in the NL is over 4. In the AL he's a back end starter, a left arm is valuable, but not enough to trade Halladay for. Without knowing what the Jays want out of the Red Sox, if they can get Brown and Drabek from the Phillies then that might be the better deal. However, if the proposed deal is legit and the Sox add on someone else to it it would be hard for the Jays to decline.

Before these rumors starting heating up I heard that the Jays would definitely want a position player especially an infielder in a deal along with young pitching. Jason Donald is a fine SS prospect, but the deal the Phillies want to give is more quantity than quality, and that's not something you want for Roy Halladay. The Jays need impact players and the Red Sox offer is the only one that contains those with Buchholz and Westmoreland if he pans out, and there is always the option to add in Lowrie if the Jays want that IF. With all that said, Drabek and Brown could swing this deal in favor of the Phillies, but so far they haven't included them, and even with them it's not a significantly better deal for the Jays.

During this offseason I felt the Sox shoulda signed Teixeira to stick it to the Yankees. The Sox always try to make the perfect moves, but sometimes you got to flex your muscles and make a move. I think they are starting to realize this and that's why they are heating up with the Halladay rumors. If the Sox do a trade similar to those rumored, they may lose their pitching depth but they'd have a rotation of Beckett, Halladay, and Lester in the playoffs, next year and likely years after, why would Halladay leave Boston? Not that you were asking, but that's 3 pitchers in the top 12 in FIP, xFIP, tRA, and any other advanced metric you want to look at. Sick.