Monday, July 20, 2009

Who Has The Most Trade Value?

Fangraphs just finished their solid Trade Value rankings modeled slightly after Bill Simmon's NBA version, and the winner is...

#1: Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay: 3.9 WAR

I might just have to retire his jersey if I keep doing this list going forward, because unless he gets hurt or takes a big step back, it’s hard to see anyone passing him for the next five years. His on field value puts him in the discussion with the best players in the game, but his contract is just so unbelievably team friendly that no one else comes close to his overall value to their club. Ramirez, for instance, will make $64 million from 2010 to 2014 - Longoria will make $21 million, and then the Rays will have two more options that would keep him in TB at $11 million per year for 2015 and 2016. Crazy. He’s going to be paid like a league average back-end starting pitcher through a potential Hall-Of-Fame prime. Agents, this is the template of what not to do with your best client going forward.

I thought it was going to be between Longoria, Hanley, and Upton but I wasn't sure who they would place first. Hard to argue with the Longoria choice. I was aware that the Rays signed him long term last year, but I didn't realize how team-friendly that contract actually was. I figured in my mind it would be similar to Hanley's not realizing Hanley signed after a few years of solid performance where Longoria signed it after a couple months.

As Dave Cameron mentioned, from 2010-2014 Longoria will make $21m, last year alone in a shortened rookie season Longoria was worth $24.1m and this year he's already been worth $17.6m. Essentially if Longoria got a career ending injury today the Rays would have already gotten more than their money's worth on Longoria. So, if any team in the league offered any swap for Longoria that the Rays would hang up the phone. Even if the Cards offered Albert, the Marlins with Hanley, or the Dbacks with Upton, the Rays would take Longoria. That was the point of this series, to find that guy, and it seems like that guy is Longoria. With just Longoria one could say the Rays should be good for a long time, the fact the Rays also have Ben Zobrist (just missed the cut), James Shields (#27), David Price (#25), and BJ Upton (#21) on the list means they will be very good for a very long time.


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