Fantasy Time - Hitting

We did the Pitchers, let's do some hitters.

Hitters I like:

Alexei Ramirez: I don't like to take 2nd half performances of the past as gospel but last year Alexei hit .269 with 14 homers and 48 RBI after the break, quite good for a rookie 2b. This year Alexei started out hitting .214 with 1 homer in April and since then he's hit an even .300 with 10 homers and 33 RBI. ZiPs projects him to hit .290 with 9 homers and 30 RBI in the 2nd half, but I think he can easily top those power numbers. He won't keep up his 25 steal pace, but he should be able to get 15 homers and 45 RBI. As an Alexei owner I was shaking in my boots that he and Chris Davis would destroy my team this year and possibly next. Chris Davis single handily destroyed my team for this year, but at least now I'm confident Alexei will not only be very productive in the 2nd half but will be a viable keeper for next year.

Dexter Fowler: This guy has been up and down all year but for now it looks like he'll play every day. The SBs should be there (although don't expect 25 but ~20) and he could run into a few homers. Nothing special but you'll take it.

BJ Upton: This one is pretty obvious. He was brutal until late May (when he was recovering from shoulder surgery) and since then he's been great. He steals more than anyone not named Jacoby or Carl (I wish he had a cooler 1st name) and he can hit 10 2nd half homers. His RBI won't be great considering he leads off but his runs should continue to be with that great lineup behind him. Since he was more or less injured to start the year it's safe to throw out those early season numbers, don't look at his season totals and come away unimpressed this is the same guy you (or me actually) spent your 2nd round pick on and rightfully so.

Some guys I like that you can get for cheap or maybe pickup:

Dan Uggla: Any time you take Dan Uggla you have to make sure his average won't derail your team, but if you are in a place where he won't kill you there he's worth obtaining. His LD%, FB%, and HR/FB% are all around his career norms but his BABIP is 40 points below where it should be. Uggla is a streaky hitter and a 2b batting .227 may be easy to acquire. If that's the case I'd say go for him and enjoy your .260 15 homers from your 2b slot.

JJ Hardy: Another middle infielder that has been unlucky, is streaky, and has a lot of power potential. Enough time has passed where the team owning him should be frustrated. Skip Schumaker may seem like a fine replacement but I'd axe him or throw him in a deal with another dece hitter or starter and get Hardy.

Lastings Millege: The Pirates didn't acquire him so he could play in AAA all year. Once he's healthy he'll be called up and he's likely the only 10 hr/10 sb threat left on your waiver wire, why not take a chance?

Jerry Hairston Jr.: The injury to Bruce should secure more PT for Jerry, and just his position eligibility alone has value. He should be eligible at 3b, SS, and OF, you can probably find a better 3b or OF on the wire, but it would be hard finding a better SS. Stop debating on picking up Willie Bloomquist right now and just pickup Hairston Jr. already.

Hitters I really like but c'mon:

Ben Zobrist: Zorilla has been utterly insane this year. He's eligible at 2b, SS, and OF, so even if he put up average numbers he'd still have a lot of value. However, he's put up dazzling numbers- .297, 17 homers, 52 RBI, 50 runs, and 11 sbs. Zorilla is on pace for 30+ homers 20+ steals, about a .300 average and almost 100 runs and RBI, to go with a very patient approach at the plate so I obviously like him as a hitter. However, this just seems a little bit too good to be true. I saw Ben Zobrist start at SS for the Rays in 2007 on opening day and the friend I was with and I just made fun of this no name SS so maybe that is scarred into my brain, but seriously how could Ben Zobrist actually keep this up? Like I said, his patient approach should make him a solid hitter but I have my doubts he'll sustain a HR/FB % on par with the Carlos Pena's and Adam Dunn's of the world. I'd love to have Zobrist on my team for the rest of the season and as a keeper, but don't make him untouchable in trade talks, if someone thinks of him as a top 3 rounder next year you might want to think about making the move.

Joe Mauer: Once again I love Joe Mauer, he was on my favorite players list, but he isn't this good in fantasy that is. He hits Ground Balls 50% of the time and yet still has 15 homers, that just isn't sustainable. In May (Mauer didn't play in April) in 99 ABs he had 11 homers, since then in 142 ABs he's hit 4. Last year he hit a HR in every 59 ABs, this year it's been every 16 but since June it's been every 35. So Mauer may have become a better power hitter, but not near the rate he's been all year, more like the rate he's posted since June. All of this doesn't mean that Mauer isn't a great player because he's still arguably a top 50 player without the homers and .370 average, but to continue the theme here if someone treats Mauer like a top 20 player and is willing, you have to look into that trade.

Hitters I'd trade to get peak/near peak value:

Adrian Gonzalez: This one may be a little to late since he has slumped hard recently, but Petco prevents him from becoming a top bat and trading him would really kill the Padres fan base. A trade out of Petco would obviously make him a huge buy immediately but I don't think it'll happen this year. He's truly a great hitter but as long as he's in Petco he won't be a top tier bat and you'd be better off trading him while people may think he is premier. ZiPs calls for him to have 16 2nd half homers batting .270, and with the crappy team around he won't knock many guys in or score many runs. If anything his walk rate will continue to rise, helping him as an overall player but killing him in fantasy.

Grady Sizemore: I love Grady and his Ladies and almost put him in my favorite players list, but the fact is this is not his year. He has a bum elbow and at any point the Indians may decide it's best to just shut him down and play for next year. If that's the case owning Grady in 1 year leagues can really fuck you. For what it's worth his speed has been a little concerning too. Last year he stole 38 times only getting caught 5 times with a speed score of 6.5, this year he has 9 steals and has been caught 7 times with a speed score of 5.4. That may be a fluke but listen to his speed scores since 2005: 7.2, 7.6, 6.4, 6.5, 5.4. That's not a good trend. Of course Grady could become a fine 3 hitter that doesn't need top of the line speed and SBs, but the window for a 4040 may have passed and I'd say I'm a little bearish on him even in keeper leagues. So, with Grady's little hot streak before the break, if you could find someone willing to treat him as a first rounder I'd make the deal.

Hitters a lot of people talk about for the 2nd half that I'm not really willing to necessarily obtain:

Aubrey Huff: If you can get Aubrey Huff for a middle reliever or a middling starter than sure make the deal, but I can't get myself to rely on a good 2nd half for Huff. I'll probably end up being wrong here but whatever.

Jimmy Rollins: He's still a fine buy low provided you actually buy low on him. A lot of his failures this year could be attributed to bad luck, like his .242 BABIP. However that doesn't tell the entire story. This year Rollins has also had his LD% drop and his IFF% increase, both of which are not good signs. The balls that Rollins puts into play are being caught at an unsustainable rate but he's also hitting the ball hard fewer times and popping it up more times. He's also never been a high BABIP hitter to begin with, his career BABIP is just .297, so it's not like he should be hitting close to .300 or anything near that. Sure, there is no way that Rollins ends the year at .230, but in general don't expect him to come close to evening out his stats this year. Expect him to bat around .260 with some pop for a SS (which could only mean 5-7 homers) and steal about 20 bases, and pay accordingly. Don't expect a 1st round pick performance prorated over the 2nd half.

Hitters I just don't like:

Torrii Hunter: He's injured now and when he comes back don't expect MVP performance.

Brandon Inge: He's had such terrible seasons I can't expect this to continue. Career HR/FB% of 10.9%, this year it's over 20%. I don't care that he hits better at 3b, he's not this good.

Hunter Pence: This my friends is what you call a tease. He's hitting around .300 and looks to finish at about 20/20, sounds like a top pick right? Well thanks to the Fantasy Ball Junkie, you realize he's only on pace for 69 RBI and 84 runs. There is probably a pickup OF that can give you what he will in the 2nd half. Don't chase those 10 steals, you can pick those up elsewhere. He's an above average OF disguised as a top one, don't always believe what you see.