How To: BABIP

I have Eric Young Jr. on my fantasy team. I stashed him on my DL because I thought he could be a nice source of steals at a weak position (2nd base). I use ESPN for fantasy, and it looks like they use RotoWire for their player notes. Today Eric Young's note read:

Young went 1-for-4 with a run and a stolen base in Sunday's win over the
Diamondbacks.

Spin: Young is starting to come into his own as a base thief; he is
4-for-4 in base stealing attempts this month, and had just four stolen bases
prior to August. However, his .666 OPS is troublesome, as is the .327
BABIP.

Pitchers on average have a BABIP of .290 -.300. In general when looking at a pitcher's BABIP to see if he has been lucky or not it's safe to use ~.300 as a baseline. For instance Tim Hudson has a BABIP of .235, clearly he has been lucky, he should regress. Hitters however are different, they have their own unique BABIP, you can't just compare their's to a league average. So, Eric Young's BABIP is .327, but it's not puzzling like the note says, assuming his already lowish batting average will fall because of a flukey high BABIP. Take a look at EY Jr.'s BABIPs in the minors:

2006- .340
2007- .347
2008- .353
2009- .347

When you see those numbers, is Young's .327 BABIP still puzzling? For hitters you have to compare their BABIP to their career mark, and that in itself takes several years to even out. RotoWire made a mistake when they saw Young's .327 BABIP assuming it was too high, if anything it's actually low. One could expect Young to have a BABIP around .345 like his career in the minors suggests, so if anything the note should read as follows:

Spin: Young is starting to come into his own as a base
thief; he is 4-4 in base stealing attempts this month compared to just four
prior to August while he was hurt. Although his .666 OPS is troublesome,
his .327 BABIP is below his career norm. Owners can therefore expect Young
to hit at an average that won't hurt their team while raking in stolen bases at
a weak position (2nd base) as Young continues to hit a top the Rockies
lineup.

I love how sabermetrics has become more and more popular, but it's important that people use them correctly. Statistics like BABIP can be very helpful, especially in fantasy baseball, as a way of acquiring guys who can be expected to perform better as well as selling high on guys who can be expected to play worse, however if used wrong they could be very dangerous. An owner with little knowledge on BABIP may try to sell high on Young based on his note, when in reality he should be keeping on to him.

To conclude, use a BABIP ~.300 as a comparison point for pitchers, but for hitters make sure you use their own unique career number, otherwise you will likely be hurting yourself more than helping.