I'm Saying This Now So I Can Brag About it Later

By now everyone realizes (I hope), especially with his recent trip to the DL, that Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter have had disappointing seasons. However, I don't think people have talked about it to the extent it will be mentioned after the season when everyone is previewing the 2011 season. I also don't think that people have fairly mentioned how bad (compared to what we normally expect) Arod has been this year. Obviously he is still a good, debatably great player (although not at his price) but really how good has he been this year and what can we expect for the future?

According to Fangraphs' WAR, Arod ranks 10th among 3rd basemen and it's not just cause of his fielding since he only ranks 8th among 3rd basemen just according to the batting component. Arod won't play in 150 games this year and hasn't since 2007. He'll turn 36 next year in July and is currently on the DL because of a strained calf and I have to think his hip is part of it to. Alex is walking 5% less than he did last year and has is lowest ISO since 1997. He also only has 4 SB with 3 CS which to no surprise has lead him to his lowest speed score to date. Although he has a higher contact % than he has ever had before, he's swinging at more pitches out of the zone which has lead to a higher GB% than usual.

If it weren't for his 97 RBI, I think people would be more concerned, and they really should be regardless of how Arod is doing in that flawed stat. What we have on our hands with Arod is a guy who is heading towards the wrong side of 30, is slower than ever before, more injured than ever before, hitting with less power than he has since he was 21, is taking less pitches and swinging at more bad pitches that's leading to more grounders. Ever since his 3 home run game a week or so ago and a little bit before, people expected Arod to have a monster month to get his numbers in line with last year, well I don't think that is going to happen this year, and I'm not sure it will ever happen again.

What Arod is now and in the near future is a 3b who will hit about 20% better than the average hitter but with it will come below average defense at 3b and a 10-20 games out of the lineup. That's fine, but it's not "Arod" and it's not worth the money he's getting paid. Most of the talk has been about Jeter's decline, but I think it's time we realize Arod is the bigger worry. Jeter at least plays the harder position and does it 150+ times a year. Even with his much documented decline from last year, Jeter is a top SS, the same can't be said about Arod at 3b.

So, as I stated in the headline for the post, I think come March people are going to realize Arod is the bigger concern, and when coupled with Jeter's down year, sportswriters and bloggers everywhere are going to pick the Yankees to finish 3rd in the division in 2011. They will point to the young Rays and how the Red Sox did with injuries as reasons both teams will out perform the Yankees. I'm not saying they will be right or wrong, I'm just saying everyone is going to love to be on the Yankees 3rd place 2011 bandwagon.