Yankees Roundable

Last week I started what will soon be a longstanding tradition here, a Yankees roundtable with two knowledable buddies of mine, Jeff and Steve.  The first question last week was: What are your biggest worries about the Yankees? To follow up on those answers, this week the question is:

We were all in agreement last week that pitching was the biggest concern for the Yankees. With that said are you more or less worried than you were last week, and how do you think the Yankees rotation and bullpen will look like in the playoffs as well as spring of next year?

Jeff: With a week having passed, I would say that I am both more worried and less worried about the Yankees pitching situation. Ivan Nova has looked good in his first two starts, but is not a realistic playoff option. AJ Burnett got hit hard again this week in his start against the White Sox, and Javy has been delegated to the bullpen. I still think that Hughes is ultimately a bullpen option for the playoffs, due to his innings situation, so more than likely the Yankees #3 and #4 options for the playoff rotation are Burnett and Javy... is there a Yankees fan out there that has confidence in either of those arms right now?

At the same time, there is highly encouraging news regarding the health and status of Andy Pettitte, who time and time again has been the foundation of excellence when it comes to playoff baseball. With Pettitte coming back, and hopefully healthy, the Yankees should be very confident in the #1 and #2 holes for the playoff rotation. Additionally, the bullpen, particularly Kerry Wood, have been mostly effective heading into the home stretch of the regular season. Robertson got hit hard the other day, but I still have confidence in him. With a pen of Robertson, Chamberlain (who has been better of late), Wood, Logan and Rivera, I am mostly confident that any Yankees lead handed to these arms in the playoffs is safe.

Steve:If this question is asking me whether or not I'm comfortable going forward with Ivan Nova as the third starter, then my answer is no--not comfortable. The guy does not project to be anything more than a 4th or 5th starter in his career. He now has the advantage of having pitched well in his first few starts, which NY fans will certainly run with. We've seen guys like Aaron Small ride that type of thing out, but I can't imagine Nova will be making any postseason starts unless the Yanks are really in a bind.

I still see Javy Vazquez returning to the rotation. I even like him better than AJ for that third spot in the rotation. Burnett can dazzle, but he's been pretty shaky all year long in 2010. And I wouldn't be surprised if something is secretly bothering him. The guy hides injuries like he hides neck tats. Vazquez is a smart pitcher. I think he will figure this thing out before the end of Sept.

I actually do like the bullpen. Wood is a great compliment to Jobertson and any pen with Mo at the end is gonna look pretty sharp. Even loogy Boone looks to be holding his own in the AL (I like when Ben refers to it as the Varsity).

So am I still worried? Sure. There's a lot riding on Andy Pettitte's 40 year old hams this year. But the pen looks solid even going into next year, and I'm never worried about the Yankees future. They've rewarded us the right to be a little reckless with our confidence.
 
Ben: Personally I’m more concerned than I was last week. I agree with Jeff and Steve’s assessments that our bullpen looks quite good. AWood/Joba/Robertson combo is great for the 7th and 8th innings, and Boone Logan is a capable Loogy, but I was never really concerned about the bullpen in the first place. On the rotation side, since last week CC has maintained his excellence but Burnett threw another clunker, Vazquez can’t beat out a rookie for a rotation spot, and Phil Hughes couldn’t get out of the 4th inning, continuing his seemingly unnoticed slide into decency.* Plus, the guy everyone points to pull us out of this is Andy Pettitte, who at best will be healthy in 2 weeks, and that likely involves a couple starts on a strict pitch count.

*Phil Hughes first 9 starts: 6 wins, 56 IP, 57 SO, 2.70 ERA.


Phil Hughes last 15 starts: 9 wins, 87 IP, 65 SO, 5.03 ERA.

This doesn’t bother me too much for the rest of the season because the Yankees are essentially guaranteed a playoff spot. It’s once we get to the postseason that gets me worried. Realistically the only guy we can count on is CC. I disagree with Jeff and don’t think that the Yankees can be very confident in Pettitte for the postseason for 3 main reasons: First of all he’s 38. Secondly, there is no guarantee that he will be effective once he comes back. Lastly, any slight setback and he may not be even pitching for us, let alone effectively. Pettitte should be ready in about 2 weeks and at that point he still won’t be able to go 100+ pitches. So it will take another couple starts after that until he’s up to snuff for the playoffs. That literally leaves no wiggle room for Pettitte, if he has to take some extra time he may not be able to give us 7 innings in the playoffs.

As it stands, the Yankees might have the worst starting pitching of all the teams in the postseason if the season ended today. You only need 3 starters for the playoffs except the Yankees only really have one, and it’s the other starters on the Rays, Rangers, and Twins that are better than the current tired Hughes/sucky Burnett/sucky Vazquez/injured Pettitte/rookie Nova/Dustin Mosley(?) combination.

Now it must be said that I don’t think the Yankees will struggle down the stretch or even in the playoffs, they have a solid bullpen and the best lineup in the league, it’s just that their rotation is worrisome, or as worried as one can get in first place with the best record in the league.

As far as the offseason/future goes I’m pretty much with Steve and I’m not concerned, whatever holes need to be filled in the rotation will be filled. Locked in are CC, Hughes, and Burnett (unfortunately) for next year. In addition to those for some speculative guesses I think that the Yankees will sign Cliff Lee, convince Andy to give it another go, entertain putting Joba back into the rotation, and give a guy like Brandon Webb or Aaron Harang a chance to prove themselves. Along with Nova and Gaudin/Mitre the Yankees in 2011 will have a rotation of Sabathia/Lee/Hughes/Pettitte/ and one of Joba/Nova/Webb. It’s just a guess, but I think it’s plausible if not pretty likely.