Friday, August 27, 2010

Where Will Reyes Be In 2011

Jose Reyes left the game last night after re-aggravating his oblique and there has been recent chatter about where he will play next year. Reyes has recently said that he wants to stay, and the Mets have said they will likely exercise his $11m option for next year, but there still have been rumors (largely dumb radio callers but still) that Reyes may be (and should be) traded next year. One of the ideas behind trading Reyes has been that the Mets have to blow up their core in order to get better. The Reyes/Wright/Santana/Beltran core, it has been said, hasn't done anything, and it's time to hit the theoretical reset button. If that's the philosophy behind trading Reyes, I wholeheartedly disagree. The Mets had 2 unlikely collapses, were ravaged by injuries last year, and weren't expected to do any better or worse than they are this year, I don't think that's grounds to decide "hey let's trade our 2nd best player!"

Reyes has had a somewhat down year (significant drop in BB%, worse defense), but it's important to keep in mind he didn't play at all last year and that recently he has been on a tear. He may never be the 5-6 win player he was from 2006-2008 but he still hits above average, plays SS, and can steal 50 bases which should still put him at roughly a 3.5-4.5 win player, if he's healthy. With the recent injury to his oblique (again) and his seemingly always questionable hamstring, being healthy has become a pretty, pretty, pretty, big if. If health is the reasoning behind trying to see what you can get for Reyes, well maybe there is something to be said about looking to trade Reyes. This by no means you force yourself to trade him, but it doesn't hurt anyone (except Reyes' feelings) if you see what's out there. Reyes at $11m next year is a no brainer, but re-signing him to a lengthy costly deal isn't as easy of a decision. If someone is willing to give the Mets some legit pieces that are major league ready as well as top prospects, that's something the Mets would have to consider.

So, with that said who are some teams who would be interested in acquiring Reyes and what would they have to offer?

Braves- They have Alex Gonzalez at short (after likely regrettably trading Yunel Escobar because of a bad 3 months) and he has a club option for 2011 at $2.5m. I'm not sure Braves are willing to or can even add payroll but Reyes would certainly be an upgrade at SS and the Braves are a competitive team that will be eying the playoffs and possible championship in the upcoming years. If Chipper retires that would cancel out Reyes' salary, but Chipper has said he wants to keep playing. Plus, it'd be hard to see the Mets trade Reyes to a division rival like the Braves. However, the Braves are one of a few teams that has excellent prospects and pitching. Maybe a package like Mike Minor, Julio Tehran, and Alex Gonzalez would entice the Mets? They would get 2 excellent pitching prospects and a SS to replace Reyes next year.

Angels- They are always trying to win, love to run, and should reload next year with Morales coming back. Erick Aybar is a totally capable (if not better) SS but Reyes would likely be an upgrade. The Angels could offer Aybar and their best remaining pitching prospect Trevor Reckling to head a package for Reyes.

Red Sox- Marco Scutaro has been an adequate SS, but imagine a middle infield of Reyes and Pedroia? I guess there would be a lot of question marks regarding health, but Reyes would be incredibly exciting in Boston. I don't think the Red Sox would actually even engage in a conversation with the Mets but they do have some nice prospects, and maybe the team has grown tired of Ellsbury. Additionally, maybe the Mets could convince the Sox to take on Beltran, relieving themselves of some salary. In return maybe they get Ellsbury and a Ryan Kalish? An Of of Ellsbury Kalish Pagan could be interesting.

Yankees- I don't know that the Mets would ever do a deal with the Yankees of this magnitude, but you figure the Yankees are involved in any major deal. I have the slightest suspicion that Jeter decides to retire this year leaving a huge hole for the Yankees at SS. I'm not sure where Jesus Montero would play for the Yankees let alone the Mets, but if he was offered in the Cliff Lee deal, he'd have to be somewhat expendable, and maybe it intrigues the Mets.

Reds- The Reds have gotten some decent production at SS this year, but clearly not as much as a player of Reyes' caliber. Jay Bruce could be a nice buy low for the Mets, even if it involves trading Reyes. The Reds have a lot of young mlb-readyish arms and coupled with Bruce could head a decent package for Reyes.

Giants- Juan Uribe is actually not that bad, but again Jose Reyes is a top SS. I'm not sure the Giants would be willing to give up Bumgarner, but if they would be, that's something (paired with Uribe) that the Mets would have to consider.

Ok, so it was fun to see what teams could offer the Mets for Reyes but realistically I don't think Reyes will be moving teams. As a team trying to always compete (not necessarily the best decision for them right now, but that's just how it is) it'd be hard for the Mets rationalizing them being better off next year without him. However, if they don't want to resign him (even though it's rumored they would like to) I think they HAVE to trade him, it's as simple as that. One year of Reyes isn't better than any of the ideas mentioned above. Even if teams are weary about Reyes and won't offer as much as I said it's still a must. For instance, what's better for the Mets, Reyes in 2011 or Bumgarner for the next 4-5 years? What's better, Reyes in 2011 or Jay Bruce for the next few years? See what I'm getting at? Unless the Mets are willing to resign Reyes they have to consider trading him, and maybe to one of the teams I mentioned.

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