September 1st, Aroldis Chapman Day?

According to J.J. Cooper and Cincinnati Reds fans everywhere, it just may be. 

In his last outing, Chapman supposedly hit 105(!) mph on the radar gun and Cooper notes how it "was seen on multiple radar guns, not just one amped up stadium gun." According to Cooper:

"That kind of velocity almost breaks the 20-80 scouting scale. If grading purely on velocity, a 97 mph fastball is considered an 80, or the upper end of the scale. Subtract eight miles per hour from that down to 89 and you are looking at a 40-45 on the scouting scale. There's nothing in the scouting scale to account for a pitch eight miles an hour faster than what's already considered an 80."

Wow.  Strasburg could throw 100 mph and people were getting giddy, Chapman can throw 5 mph faster.  Obviously it takes more than just velocity to succeed in the majors, and Strasburg was the more established pitcher, but daaaaaaamn Aroldis might be the best thrower of all time.  He will be called up and put in the Reds pen, but hopefully we can will see Aroldis and his consistent 100+ mph heat for 7 innings a game next year.  Everyone likes to distinguish between a pitcher and a thrower (like I kind of did just now), I wonder at what point does the distinction become somewhat irrelevent.  Aroldis clearly has to gain better control (as a starter, he's been pretty good in that regard as a reliever), but you'd think anyone will be somewhat successful at that speed.

It's hard to wrap your head around (at least I'm struggling) that speed.  At 105 mph Chapman can take 5 mph off his fastball and throw faster than all but a handful (maybe half of a handful) of major league players.  Chapman can throw a 95 mph changeup and still have a 10 mph differential between his fastball and changeup.  Chapman can lose 18-20% of his velocity and still throw harder than Jamie Moyer, Livan Hernandez, Ted Lilly, and Barry Zito, Mark Buehrle, and Trevor Hoffman.

Before we get too excited (and possibly disappointed) Tim Marchman noted the top strikeout pitchers 22 or younger with at least 50 IP.  The results:

1 Kerry Wood 12.58 1998 21

2 Stephen Strasburg 12.18 2010 21

3 Dwight Gooden 11.39 1984 19
4 Mark Prior 11.34 2002 21

5 Oliver Perez 10.97 2004 22

6 Sam McDowell 10.71 1965 22

7 Mark Prior 10.43 2003 22

8 Scott Kazmir 10.14 2006 22

9 Oliver Perez 10.02 2003 21

10 Rick Ankiel 9.98 2000 20

That's the K/9 ratio, the year, and the age.  As you can see, each of those pitchers either got hurt, got bad, did drugs, or did a combination of both.  With 105 mph heat, Aroldis Chapman will surely post a K/9 like those dudes, most likely towards the top of the list.  Does that mean he will get hurt? No.  Does it mean we shouldn't be surprised if he does get hurt? Yes. This news doesn't mean we shouldn't be excited for Aroldis Chapman to arrive, we should be very, very excited just as we were to watch those other guys.  However, we should temper our expectations of anointing him the best pitcher in baseball, or at least waiting until after his first Tommy John surgery.  Kidding of course, kinda. 

On a more positive note, the Reds are currently the best team in the National League (at least according to my power rankings) and you know what their biggest weakness is?  Relief pitching.  You know what Aroldis Chapman will help a lot with?  Relief pitching.  The Phillies are finally healthy and could become the team to beat in the NL (again), but with the best player in the league (no real need to add the formely necessary modifier 'AA' After Albert to that statement) in Joey Votto, a good young pitching staff, and now Aroldis Chapman, the team that started on a few sleeper lists in March could be an obvious choice for NL participant in the Fall Classic.