Quick Thoughts: Weekend Wrap Up

If there is one thing we have learned during this offseason it's that baseball teams have a lot of money to spend. That idea certainly did not change this weekend. A quick recap:

• The best way to improve your team is to upgrade your biggest weakness. The 2013 Yankees had many weaknesses, the fact they were over .500 is somewhat impressive. But, by and large the catcher position was the glaring hole. As a team the Yankees catchers (Chris Stewart, Francisco Cervelli, Austin Romine and a tad of J.R. Murphy) hit for a combined 61 wRC+, which ranked 26th in the league. Now, the Yankees have Brian McCann, signed to a five-year $85 million deal. It's a lot of money but with the current times, $17 million for McCann actually doesn't seem too too bad. The Yankees received 0.9 WAR from their catchers last year and McCann, who ranks as one of the best offensive and defensive catchers in the league projects by Steamer to be worth 4.8 WAR. Granted that's a rough estimation and McCann has missed a few games over the last few years, but even on the low end, McCann projects to be worth at least three more wins than their current crop of catchers. McCann might not be a good catcher or a catcher at all towards the end of this deal but if he does his thing for the first 2-3 years, it should be a solid signing for the Yankees.
• Like the Yankees, the Cardinals realized best way to improve is to fix your weakness. The Cardinals have fewer weaknesses than the Yankees and most teams but they certainly have a hole at shortstop that Pete Kozma just isn't filling. Lat year, the Cardinals' shortstops were worth -0.3 WAR. The Cardinals essentially did not have a major league caliber player at SS all year, now they have Jhonny Peralta, signed to a four-year $52 million deal. Earlier in his career Peralta graded out as a below average SS but somehow over the last few years he's been above average. I'm not entirely sure what to make of that but the Cardinals certainly value defense and I don't think they would completely punt it just for Peralta's offense. Speaking of his offense, although he's been inconsistent, Peralta still an above average hitter (career 102 wRC+) playing a premium defensive position. The Cards are paying some decent coin for Peralta's services but they were also able to upgrade their biggest weakness without having to trade one of their young aces. Peralta may not be worth $52 million over the course of his contract, but because of him the Cardinals are still able to throw Shelby Miller and Carlos Martinez out there, and that is a lot of value.
• The Yankees and Robinson Cano aren't looking any closer to agreeing on a contract but there isn't much buzz about him being linked with any other team. The Dodgers spent a bunch of cash on middle infielders from Cuba and unless the Rangers decide to dive all-in following their Prince Fielder acquisition, I don't see any other players for Cano. His $300 million demand is a joke and the Yankees will likely end up signing him for a more reasonable, eight-year $200 million deal. The fact that $200 million might be considered reasonable, tells us a lot about the current free agent landscape.
• Josh Johnson to San Diego was the early front runner for best free agent signing of the offseason, pitching or otherwise but Dan Haren to LA might take the cake now.  A one-year $10 million deal for Dan Haren carries little risk and a lot of reward. Haren isn't a pillar of stability but he still threw 176.2 innings in 2012 and 169.2 innings last year. His 4.67 ERA last year is a little unsightly but a 3.67 xFIP might tell a different story. In 64.2 innings pitched from August on, Haren had a 3.34 ERA and a 58/12 K/BB. Haren can struggle with the long ball but he still has fantastic control (1.64 BB/9) and ant least an average ability to miss bats (8.01 K/9; 9.1% SwStr%). That combination for $10 million in this market, is a steal for the Dodgers. 

Peter Bourjos for David Freese

A trade went down today and although it's not as sexy as the Prince Fielder variety, (if one can think of Prince Fielder and sexy in the same sentence) it's not a meaningless trade either.

The Cardinals essentially swapped third basemen without a job, David Freese for Peter Bourjos from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. The Angels have a hole at third base so this certainly fills a need but any way you want to slice it, Peter Bourjos is the better player here. David Freese isn't as bad as his 2013 campaign (106 wRC+/1.3 WAR) but he's also likely not as good as "peak" in 2012. Freese doesn't carry a great glove and his productive years have been a result of fortunate balls in play as he doesn't have too much power with a career .427 SLG and .141 ISO. 

Meanwhile, the Cardinals are now able to slide Matt Carpenter to third base, use prospect Kolten Wong at second base, move Jon Jay to right field to replace Carlos Beltran and finally have themselves an actual center fielder playing the position. With one swap, the Cardinals solidified four positions and gave themselves some nice insurance in case super prospect Oscar Taveras isn't ready. Nice work.There will be worse fielders playing in center in 2014 than Jon Jay but anyone who watches the games could see he's not particularly great with the glove. Bourjos happens to be one of the best fielders in the game. I could illustrate that fact with a slew of advanced stats but just know that the Angels had Mike Trout playing left field because Peter Bourjos was on the team. 'Nuff said.

Considering David Freese was a surplus for the Cardinals coming off of a down year, he was a solid buy-low option for whichever team wanted to acquire him. However, buying low provides that you do just that, and the Angels did not do that here. Bourjos has yet to play an entire season (some coaching/some injury issues) but if and when he does, on the heels of his glove, he would certainly be a more valuable. But, he's no slouch with the bat as he's also a totally acceptable hitter as well. In 1,136 plate appearances Bourjos has a 96 wRC+. That's a league average hitter who happens to be one of, if not the best center fielders in the game. I said I didn't need any stats, but what the hell, since he entered the league in 2010, only four out fielders have been more valuable with the glove. The kid can play.

Fernando Salas is also going to Los Angeles with Randal Grichuk coming over to St. Louis. I don't know much about Grichuk, but he's a top-10 prospect in the Angels farm system. He won't turn 23 until August and just hit a decent .256/.306/.474 in AA this season. Who knows how Grichuk will end up but Fernando Salas has little to no value, Grichuk certainly has some. 

Early next season, David Freese will be 31 years old with two years of team control. Peter Bourjos will be 27 years old with three more years of team control. Bourjos is cheaper, better and the Cardinals will have control of him for a longer time. It's basically impossible to say this isn't a great trade for St. Louis.  The Cardinals don't have the budget that some teams do but the rich certainly got richer here. 

Quick Thoughts

There is a lot of movement going on this offseason and not every bit of rumor, trade or signing is worthy of its own post (necessarily), so consider this a greatest hits. Or at least a few sweet samples:

• Chris Young signed a one-year $7.25 million deal with the Mets today. With Marlon Byrd the Mets outfield was looking bleak and without him they were relying on Juan Lagares, Eric Young Jr. and whatever Lucas Duda could pretend to be out there. Safe to say, they needed some OF help and Chris Young provides that. Young's stock has plummeted in recent years but he can play CF and at least still hit lefties well. The problem is against righties. Young had a 67 wRC+ against right handed pitchers in 2013 but a more respectable 88 wRC+ in 2012.$7.25 million is a lot for a part-time player but if Young can play adequate CF defense and up his production against righties, it's a low-risk move for the Mets that fills a need.
• Of course, even with Young the Mets need some more OF help and they've also been linked to Nelson Cruz. Signing another out fielder is the right idea but Nelson Cruz might be a land mine. Cruz used to be a more athletic, five-ish tool player who could run a bit and field his position. Nowadays, while he can still hit home runs he brings no value on the bases for in right field. Cruz will demand a multi-year deal and it wouldn't surprise me if he had one solid year on his next contract but my guess is it gets drowned out by the other years. If I'm a Mets fan, I hope this stays a rumor.
• The Royals signed Jason Vargas to a four-year $32 million deal, essentially replacing free agent Ervin Santana. The dollars being thrown around this offseason is a little ridiculous but it's basically the new normal. Teams have more money to spend than ever before and they're clearly spending it. However, four years at $8 million a year for essentially a league-average pitcher is a little wonky. It's true that it's essentially the same deal that Jeremy Guthrie signed (plus a year) but that implying that Guthrie's deal was a solid one isn't necessarily correct. The Royals want to get over the hump, it's important to have several guys throw at least league average innings to compete, but giving Vargas four-years isn't an optimal use of their resources.

The Trade

The rumors yesterday afternoon rang true by the evening time as the Rangers and Tigers essentially swapped all-stars with Ian Kinsler going to Detroit and Prince Fielder moving to Texas. 

The trade isn't exactly a simple swap as Detroit is also throwing $30 million to Texas (paid out in the final five years of the contract)  but as far as the players are concerned, Prince and Kinsler are the only pieces moving. We still have a lot of offseason left to see how everything else shakes out, but this is certainly too big of a trade to not analyze immediately after.

Of course, several people have already written several great words on the trade, including Dave Cameron here and here and Jonah Keri here, but the more the merrier right?

The Tigers entered the offseason with essentially three designated hitters, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Victor Martinez. Prince Fielder and the $168 million owed to him until 2020 was largely and appropriately considered an immovable contract but moved he was for Ian Kinsler. With this trade, Miguel Cabrera and his achy groin can now move to a position more suitable to his size, Nick Castellanos can move back to the hot corner or the Tigers can resign Jhonny Peralta and Victor Martinez can comfortably play out his final year in Detroit at DH. 

Although the Tigers are sending $30 million to Texas in the deal, that doesn't start until 2016 and for the next two years, have $48 million to spend that was previously allocated to Prince. The Tigers were originally committed to $168 million to Prince, now with Ian Kinsler ($62 million) and the $30 million going to Texas they've secured $76 million to play around with. That's some significant coin. When you add in the fact that Kinsler's contract is somewhat front-loaded, that Victor Martinez is off the books next year, and that Tigers are paying the Rangers in 2016-2020, the Rangers have plenty of cash to spend. Whether that means they will resign Max Scherzer, brin gin a top tier free agent like Shin-Soo Choo or what, I don't really know. 

However, what I do know is that before this trade the Tigers didn't have many options and were resorting to possibly having to move Scherzer. Now, the Tigers filled their need at second base with Omar Infante's departure, they aren't looking to move their recent Cy Young Award winner and have some serious elbow room both in this offseason and in the future. Elbow room is important. 

Regardless what the Tigers do after this move, this has to be considered a big, big win for them. They had a hole at second base and money tied up in three players playing the same position handcuffing the team. With one trade the Tigers fixed all of those problems. Even if Prince was a more valuable player than Kinsler this would be a nice swap but that isn't even true. While Fielder certainly hits better than Kinsler he does it at first base, Kinsler makes his money at second base. Prince is an unquestionable iron horse essentially playing in every game since he's entered the league while Kinsler is prone to miss several games each year, but including those missed games Kinsler has accrued 12.8 WAR since 2011 while Prince has 11.9. There might be a selection bias there, including Kinsler's career year in 2011, but Steamer projects Kinsler to be worth 3.6 WAR in 2014 and Prince 3.7. Any way you want to slice it, these players have equal value, the only thing not equal is the salaries they're being paid.

Meanwhile, while I certainly think it's a fantastic trade for the Tigers, that doesn't mean it's a horrible one for the Rangers. The Rangers entered the offseason with a crowded infield, one of Elvis Andrus, Jurickson Profar or Ian Kinsler had to go, or switch positions. The Rangers also lacked punch in the lineup losing Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli last year to free agency and while I doubt the Rangers wish they were paying Josh Hamilton $25 million for the next few years, Mitch Moreland isn't really making the Rangers forget their absence.

So with this trade the Rangers were able to fix their middle infield log jam, allowing their prized prospect to play and they received a big bopper at a position of need. That's not bad but they're also paying a pretty penny for it to happen. I have a lot of issues with Prince Fielder's body type and just paying first basemen a lot of money into their thirties in general, but a seven year/$138 million deal for Prince isn't necessarily breaking the bank. It's not considering what else they could have acquired for Kinsler, but the trade market for a second basemen in his 30s, even a great one, might not be as fruitful as I would have normally assumed.

Overall, as I said, I count this as a huge win for the Tigers and a wait-and-see for the Rangers. Jonah Keri has a good point bringing up the TV money the Rangers will have flowing in but with this trade the Rangers are closer to making their bed and getting ready to sleep in it. The Tigers now have the flexibility to buy a nicer bed for themselves or dress it with Egyptian cotton, even though I might prefer your cheaper, standard T-Shirt sheets.

I was shocked a few years ago when the Tigers signed Prince, now I'm a little shocked they were able to trade him and his contract. Either way, this is a fantastic start to the hot stove season and I can't wait to see what follows and how Prince Fielder's body is going to look in 2018. 

2013 MVP Awards

I won't speak too much about the MVP Awards, which will be announced tonight as my thinking has largely remained the same since I talked about them in early September.

American League MVP

National League MVP

Alas, it's impossible for me to say nothing about it either.The top of my ballots from September remain the same in November. I still think that Andrew McCutchen was the best player in the National League, which in my mind makes him the MVP. Even if the Pirates finished in last place, McCutchen, for better or worse, would remain my personal choice. Of course the Pirates didn't finish in last place as they made the postseason, so hopefully the BBWAA gives him credit for that. Whether or not it's misguided (and it would be in my opinion), McCutchen deserves the award.

Unfortunately, while McCutchen was a great hitter, he didn't lead the league in RBI like Mr. Paul Goldschmidt. However, although Goldy led the NL in RBI (129) and HR (36), his 156 wRC+ was only slightly better than McCutchen (155), as playing in Pittsburgh isn't the same as Arizona. Context matters. Moreover, considering they are essentially equal hitters with the bat, the fact that McCutchen plays a more demanding position, plays it well and can run the bases makes it a no brainer for me.

National League

1) Andrew McCutchen

2) Yadier Molina

3) Clayton Kershaw

In the American League, my thinking has changed much either since September. It actually hasn't changed much since last season when it was Trout vs. Cabrera Part I. In 2012, Trout was actually on par with Miggy with the stick but this year Miggy wasn't certainly better with a 192 wRC+ compared to Trout's 176. But of course, all the caveats that applied last year are still relevant today. Trout plays CF (mostly) and plays it very well, he steals bases (33/40) and is generally one of the best baserunners in the game, netting the third most runs in the AL on the base paths.

Meanwhile, although Miggy is unworldly with the bat he can't really field. He plays a premier position but he also lost the most runs of any fielder in the league this year. Chris Davis should net a lot of votes, maybe more than Trout, because he hit for power on a good team but unsurprising to anyone who reads the Bias, Trout is my pick. Wins Above Replacement (WAR) isn't an end-all-be-all statistic but it's telling that Trout's 10.4 number is significantly higher than Miggy's (7.6). And if you happen to prefer Baseball-Reference's WAR calculation, Trout (9.2) still bests Caberera (7.2) by a wide margin.

One last thing to note is some Josh Donaldson love. In September I mentioned him as a sort of footnote in the "best of the rest" but now, I'd probably rank him 4th. A jack of all trades and master of none, Donaldson provides + value everywhere on the diamond and is a large reason why Oakland was so successful.

American League

1) Mike Trout
2) Miguel Cabrera
3) Chris Davis
3a) Josh Donaldson

Murray Ch-ass

This isn't the first time I'm annoyed with Murray Chass and I guarantee it won't be the last, but his most recent blogpost article rubbed me the wrong way.

In the grand scheme of things, Murray Chass and I probably agree on more things than not but when it comes to talking baseball, specifically advanced stats and/or the Hall of Fame, there is much we disagree on. 

One of those things we disagree mightily on is Jack Morris and his Hall of Fame candidacy. I don't need to go into the details of why I don't think Morris should be in the Hall of Fame but I don't think his case is strong and the reasons for his inclusion aren't necessarily structurally sound. In a recent conversation with Murray Chass, Morris blames his 3.90 career ERA on the fact that nobody told him that it's better to have a lower ERA. Seriously:

And what might Morris have done if the general manager or his manager have said they wanted him to have a lower earned run average? 

"I probably would have led the league," he said.

The jokes are endless here so I won't bog you down with sarcastic remarks but it goes to show you what has come of the Jack Morris HOF debate. How can you explain his poor ERA? He would have led the league if someone told him to! 'Nuff said.

Anywho, I'm getting a bit off track here because beyond Morris' hilarious explanation regarding his ERA, what bothered me about Chass' piece was this:

Whether or not they are members of SABR, the anti-Morris mob needs help. Expending as much mental passion and physical effort as they have in trying to block Morris' road to the Hall of Fame indicates the need for them to get a life.

There is certainly a distinction between arguing to include someone and arguing to exclude someone, one is positive and one is negative. Sure. But, I find it a little hypocritical or at the very least, a little dick-ish, to tell everyone who is arguing against Morris for the HOF that they need to get a life, in an article in which you are arguing for Morris to be in the HOF.

I don't know how many emails Murray receives in general, let alone specific to Jack Morris but maybe if he wasn't such a Chass all the time and maybe if he allowed for a comment section, he wouldn't be bombarded.

If you feel Jack Morris is deserving of the Hall of Fame, that's your opinion and you're entitled to it, but please refrain from telling others that they need a life because their opinion differs from your own.

Grant Balfour, David Robertson and Replacing Mo

The Yankees' goals for this offseason aren't too complicated - resign Cano, resign Hiroki Kuroda, improve the rotation, find an adequate bat for right field and replace Mariano Rivera. The Yankees aren't necessarily tied to getting under $189 million in salary this season but it's certainly the desired goal. With the exception of trading for Vernon Wells, everything they have done over the past year or so has been with that in mind and even with the Wells trade, they structured the payment so that they would be paying a lower number in 2014.

All in all, while the Yankees are looking to spend money (how much is dependent on if they have to pay Alex Rodriguez in 2014) they are also trying to save a few bucks. If you ask me, one way to waste a few bucks is to pay a premium for a Proven Closer™ on the free agent market.  The Yankees undoubtedly have to replace Mariano Rivera, and I don't envy the soul who has to do that, but one way to accomplish that task is to replace him in house. Inside the Yankees' house one will find a David Robertson, who has easily been one of the best relievers in the game over the last few years, and really since Robertson starting throwing pitches in the majors. Yes, he has mostly done his work in the eighth inning but with rare exception, everyone who pitches the ninth, started by pitching the eighth. 

For his career, Robertson has a 2.76/2.76/2.95 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line in 329 innings. In 2013 Robertson had a 2.04 ERA with 77 strikeouts in 66.1 innings pitched. Among relievers since 2011, Robertson has the fifth best ERA, the seventh best FIP and the third most WAR. When I say he's been one of the best and most valuable relievers, you can see I'm telling the truth. 

The Yankees certainly need to acquire some relievers this offseason as both Rivera and Joba are gone but replacing Mo's role on the team can easily be filled by David Robertson. However, the Yankees might not be leaning towards that decision with Susan Slusser reporting that the Yankees are interested in Grant Balfour. It should be noted that "interest" is an extremely large umbrella and how much, if any, the Yankees have in Balfour is questionable but it certainly seems like they are eyeing a closer to replace their closer.

In 2012 Rivera famously missed most of the 2012 season with a torn ACL. In his place the Yankees initially tried Roberston. On May 8th, Robertson recorded the save but let three runners reach base. On May 9th, Robertson blew the save and lost the game, allowing four runs without finishing the inning. On May 11th, Roberston recorded two outs in a non-save situation in the ninth inning and then found himself on the DL with a strained left oblique. When he returned to the Yankees in June, Rafael Soriano (Proven Closer™) was closing games and would hold that job for the remainder of the year.

I don't know if a few appearances in 2012 have any effect on Robertson having the job in 2014 but the Yankees are still looking for a closer to replace Rivera this offseason, even with Robertson in their back pocket. From the Daily News:

While David Robertson is clearly the top incumbent candidate to replace the retired Mariano Rivera, Yankees GM Brian Cashman isn’t just handing him the job this winter.

“We haven’t anointed anybody the closer, so I don’t know,” Cashman said. “I know Robertson wants it. But we’ll see how the winter shakes out and how the competition in spring training takes place.

“We’re going to look at everybody and anything and see where the winter takes us. The bottom line is, we have to get a collection of talent to bring to spring training. The cream rises to the top, and we have to find as much cream as possible.”

Anthony McCarron continues to state how Robertson is an option in house but he also goes on to mention Joe Nathan and Grant Balfour as potential replacements as well. I understand Cashman playing it safe here but Robertson is better than any reliever on the market. Joe Nathan had a startling 1.39 ERA but his .224 BABIP, 3.0% HR/FB ratio and declining velocity aren't that exciting in a 39 year old pitcher. For what it's worth, the Rangers didn't even give him a qualifying offer and they have worse in house options than David Robertson. Grant Balfour had a very solid 2013 season, earning his first All-Star Game appearance but his 3.42 xFIP screams more middle reliever than closer to me.

We know the Yankees need to find some relievers but if budget is a concern (and it sure seems that way) throwing a few million at Jesse Crain types seems like a more appropriate course of action than paying top dollar for someone who has saved games previously. Before Joe Nathan closed games for the Twins he was a set up man on the Giants. Before Grant Balfour closed games for the A's he set up games for the A's and Rays. Before Mariano Rivera closed games for the Yankees he set up John Wetteland. The Yankees (should) know this process more than anyone and they have one of the best pitchers in baseball to replace Mo, throwing the highest leverage innings.

I don't necessarily think that a couple of questionable performances in the ninth inning in May of  2012 is preventing Robertson from being named closer, but I'm also not entirely sure what the rub is. It's possible the Yankees want to entice a potential free agent the idea that they could be closing games in NY but that would also theoretically drive up their price and have a lesser pitcher at closer.

If the Yankees want to resign Cano and improve the rotation, giving Balfour money for the number under the 'S' column in his baseball card isn't optimal use of their resources. They should name Robertson the closer and bargain shop for relievers to fill out the rest of the bullpen. Koji Uehara didn't save games before signing with Boston and he had one of the best seasons a reliever or closer has ever had. I believe the Yankees know this, I sure hope they know this but let's see what happens. 

Scherzer to Washington?

One eye on Detroit, one eye
on Washington

Max Scherzer won 21 games with a 2.90 ERA this year and by all accounts is expected to win the AL Cy Young this season.  He's also about to get very expensive as he will be a free agent at the end of next season. It's tough to gauge exactly how much money Scherzer will demand, but Cole Hamels at a similar age and performance level resigned with the Phillies for a six-year $144 million deal. If the Tigers are to retain Scherzer's services, chances are he's going to cost ~ $150 million.

It's tough to trade an ace on a team that's trying to win a championship but it's also a lot of money to spend with Justin Verlander (owed $160 million), Anibal Sanchez ($72 million) and Prince Fielder ($168 million) already on the books. Miguel Cabrera is owed $44 million as well but the more pressing concern is resigning him. Mike Ilitch is willing to spend money and would like to see a World Series on his watch but I don't need to remind you that the Tigers aren't exactly the Dodgers of the Midwest.

With all of that said, Ken Rosenthal brings us the first juicy rumor of the season -- Max Scherzer to Washington:

Think about it:

• Scherzer and Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo have a history — Scherzer was Rizzo’s last first-round pick as Diamondbacks scouting director, going No. 11 in 2006.

• The Nationals are deep in young power arms and veteran late-inning relievers, both of which surely are on Tigers GM David Dombrowski's wish list.

• The price in prospects for Scherzer, a free agent at the end of next season, would be lower than it is for Price, who is under club control for two more years.

• And, finally, the Nats maintain a strong relationship with Scherzer's agent, Scott Boras, and might stand a better chance of signing the pitcher long term than most clubs.

It doesn't take an advanced scout to realize that Scherzer is one of the best pitchers in baseball so if Washington wants to acquire an ace, I'm not sure that Rizzo's relationship with Scherzer is going to matter. Either way, Rosenthal brings up some good points but the big if is will the Tigers trade Scherzer?

With or without Scherzer the Tigers have a formidable pitching staff and there is certainly sound logic in unloading Scherzer to free up some money to spend elsewhere. However, another option is simply letting Scherzer walk after the season, take the draft pick as compensation and let it ride with the three-headed Verlander/Scherzer/Sanchez monster. The stars and scrubs approach can rear it's ugly head but it's unsettling to think of trading Scherzer's ~$13 million contract in order to spend on a few middling relievers and Omar Infante. If the Tigers were able to open their wallets a bit, they should be able to retain Omar Infante, keep Scherzer for 2014 and fill in the rest of the roster with one-year contracts that shouldn't be hurt them next offseason.

A Proposal:

1. Keep Omar Infante (3 years/ ~$30 million)
2. Trade Victor Martinez (eating some cash) for relief help.
3. Move Prince Fielder to DH and Miguel Cabrera to first.
4. Play Nick Castellanos at third.
5. Sign David Murphy for LF.

The flip side is that Scherzer should demand a solid bounty but with only one year remaining on his contract, he may not be as appealing to GMs as he is to speculative fans. We don't know for sure what kind of offers the Tigers could receive, and given that  he's one of the best starters in the league, they would be smart to at least dangle Scherzer out there. My guess is that they would be better off holding on, but Rosenthal admits no trade is close to imminent.

I'm no genius to suggest that the Tigers just spend more money to solve their problems but color me skeptical that the Tigers receive an offer on Scherzer that's worthwhile.

Good Link: Top 50 Free Agents

Every year, Tim Dierkes at the invaluable MLB Trade Rumors website, puts out his list of the Top 50 Free Agents. Lucky for us non-Red Sox fans out there, his list is out to alleviate the post World Series hangover, to move on with the offseason. 

Below are Tim's top 10 free agents and where he expects them to sign:

1. Robinson Cano - Yankees
2. Jacoby Ellsbury - Mariners
3. Shin-Soo Choo - Tigers
4. Brian McCann - Rangers
5. Masahiro Tanaka - Dodgers
6. Ervin Santana - Yankees
7. Matt Garza - Nationals
8. Hiroki Kuroda - Yankees
9. A.J. Burnett - Pirates
10. Mike Napoli - Red Sox

Guessing where free agents will go is a tough job, and guessing where they will go this early in the offseason is even harder. So, while it's a little fickle to disagree with Tim's predictions there are a few that I might question.

The Tigers are committed to winning now as their owner is both wealthy and old and would like to win a championship in his lifetime. However, they also have a lot of money already committed for 2014, and spending this offseason could be tight. With that said, Shin-Soo Choo hitting ahead of Miguel Cabrera is certainly compelling and maybe Tim is on to something there. 

C.C. Sabathia and Ivan Nova are the only guaranteed starting pitchers for the Yankees on the roster right now, so there is no doubt that they'll acquire some this offseason. I agree that the Yankees will bring back Kuroda, but I wonder if the Yankees will shell out the money for Ervin Santana considering they still might be trying to get under the $189 million threshold to avoid a harsh luxury tax penalty. Now, there is certainly no guarantee that the Yankees do that because well, they're still the Yankees but for what it's worth, they recently resigned Jeter to a contract that would count less against the tax even though it will pay him more money. The point of all this is to say that Masahiro Tanaka would also cost more overall dollars, but less against the luxury tax, as his posting fee doesn't count towards that number. I will never bet against the Dodgers acquiring their guy but if anyone could out bid them it's the Yankees. 

Boston Red Sox, World Series Champions

Congratulations to the Boston Red Sox. I can't say I'm personally a fan of the victory but the best team definitely won.

A few thoughts:

• Mike Matheny gave Ron Washington a run for his money on how to not manage a World Series in a few spots. Grading managers is tough business but I can't help but feel he will still be a good one and I'm jaded in ever thinking Ron Washington as a competent MLB manager.
• We have and we will continue to hear it a lot but Ben Cherington did an excellent job with this team during the offseason. The Sox weren't your classic "worst to first" team as they had a very talented roster even last year, but kudos to Cherington and his staff.
• John Lackey, wow. What a turnaround his career has had. I'm not sure I've seen any athlete go from "Fuck You" to "I Love You" quite like Lackey. The fruits of Tommy John surgery I suppose.
• I don't get the impression this is the last we will see of these teams in October. Both teams have decisions to make this offseason (Ellsbury, Beltran, etc.) but the cores for each squad is set and dependent on what happens this offseason elsewhere, it's likely Boston and St. Louis will be favored in 2014.
• David Ortiz has three rings and a budding Hall of Fame case. I'm not sure I want a Hall of Fame with Papi in there without Edgar Martinez but so be it. If Oritz retired tomorrow I wouldn't put him in. But, Ortiz isn't retiring and he's been one of the best old hitters of all time. His 154 OPS+ is the 11th best of all time from age 34-37. He's hitting better now than he ever has before and if he keeps up a close facsimile to this, his case begins to make a lot of noise. There is that whole PED thing, which I don't necessarily consider but it would be a darn shame if Ortiz gets a pass cause people like him and Jeff Bagwell is denied because his arms were big.
• Speaking of impending free agents, I think both Ellsbury and Beltran are gone. I'll guess Ellsbury to Seattle and Beltran to the Yankees. Jackie Bradley Jr. and Oscar Taveras should slight right in and that helps illustrates how well run both of these teams are. The next man up is a top-50 prospect. #jealous
• I would hate to be in the NL Central and have to face Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, Michael Wacha, Trevor Rosenthal and Carlos Martinez for the foreseeable future. I'd love to see what Rosie and Martinez could do as starters, it will be interesting to see what the Cardinals do there. My guess is Rosie stays in the pen while Martinez moves to the rotation. Speaking of Shelby Miller, where are you? An extra middling OF bat or middle reliever wouldn't have been a difference maker in the series, but every little thing counts and Miller didn't enter a game in the World Series. Not an optimal use of resources. 
• It's dangerous to overrate postseason performance but Jon Lester looked like the good version we've seen inconsistently in recent years. I would confidently bump him up a bit in my preseason fantasy baseball rankings, especially if his improvement was from a mechanical adjustment. 

It's sad that baseball in 2013 is over but luckily the MLB offseason is full of action, welcome to the Hot Stove Season!

Jose Abreu to the White Sox

The White Sox currently have Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn on the roster but one or both will have to be moved and/or retire because Cuban defector Jose Dariel Abreu will be manning first base in 2014. The White Sox signed the slugger to a six-year $68 million deal, topping the deals of his fellow country men, Yasiel Puig, Aroldis Chapman and Yoenis Cespedes. 

Granted, the Series Nacionales isn't exactly premier competition but Abreu's statistics are as if he's played All-Star Baseball on the rookie level. Still, even though he has batted .453/.597/.986 with 33 home runs in 66 games in previous seasons, there are questions about his ability to hit at the MLB level. 

From Keith Law:

The bigger concern scouts have about Abreu is that he might have more of a “slider-speed” bat that will struggle with velocity, especially on the inner half. He's extremely balanced at the plate and very strong, with a setup like a right-handed David Ortiz, and very good follow-through for power to all fields. He hasn't faced many pitchers with plus fastballs, and between his size and the questionable bat speed, several scouts indicated to me that they're concerned that major league pitchers will eat him up with velocity on the inner half.  

Abreu's price tag is surely inflated because of the success that Puig and Cespedes have shown in the majors, but regardless of their performance he's still the most highly regarded talent to come out of Cuba. However, while Puig and Cespedes play the outfield and showcase skills other than just swinging the bat, Cespedes is a bad body without any speed that is relegated to only first base duty. If the questions about his bat are legitimate, $11+ million is a lot to pay for someone at a non-premier position that doesn't carry a hefty stick.

So, it's obviously a risk by the White Sox but it's not necessarily a silly one. As salaries rise and teams retain more of their stars, the cost for acquiring top talent his grown significantly. Jose Abreu is a $68 million gamble, but he will still just be 27 years old when the season begins. There just aren't any free agents available to the market nowadays that are in their prime years, teams are locking up their young talent and the majority of players reaching free agency are in their 30's. Josh Hamilton certainly had a history of success at the major league level that is non-existent with Abreu but the Angels had to pay $125 million over five years for his services. There is certainly a selection bias with my choice of Hamilton as an example but it just goes to show that there is no guarantee in any free agent signing especially as players approach their mid 30's.

Through that lens it's likely more appropriate for the White Sox to take a chance on Abreu being able to turn on inside fastballs than to overspend on a free agent past his prime. Now, doing neither is certainly an option but without a fruitful farm system nor a want to look like the current version of the Astros, a move like this is the best, or at least a solid, course of action for the White Sox.

As we said before, Abreu's stats are simply off the charts. His MLE's (Major League Equivalencies) are almost as impressive. Nobody is expecting Abreu to translate into a .330/.450/.650 hitter in the majors but it's certainly not a bad thing when assesssing your value to see numbers like that. A more appropriate comparison could be another Cuban, Kendrys Morales. Morales didn't come with the same fanfare as Abreu as he left at an earlier age and spent a lot time in the Angels farm system but his profile might be a good place to start. In 2009, in his first year as a full time player in Anaheim at age 26, Morales hit .306/.355/.569 with 34 home runs and 108 RBI with a 136 wRC+. The following year Morales injured his ankle on a walk-off home run celebration and hasn't quite been the same since, but he still has a 117 wRC+ in over 2,400 plate appearances. 

In 2013, Morales hit .277/.336/.449 with a 116 wRC+and the Mariners have stated that they will offer Morales the qualifying offer worth $14.1 million in 2014. $14 million for a wRC+ ~120 may or may not be money well spent by the Mariners, but if that's the market, Abreu for $11 million starts to look a little rosier. 
I don't really have a clue how Abreu will perform in the majors and while advanced scouts and analysts can give their best guesstimates, the truth is that nobody really knows. What we do know if that salaries are rising as is the cost of acquiring elite talent. Abreu may end up not being elite but if he can hit around 20% greater than the league average he should be worth the $68 million the White Sox will pay him, even if that ends up feeling like a disappointment.

Quick Thoughts: World Series

Some quick and some belated thoughts from the last few days:

• The obstruction call might be based on a questionable rule but it was the correct call.
• I'm not sure why the Red Sox were holding Kolten Wong on first with a two-run lead and two outs in the ninth, but obviously they made the right call. I don't know if their advanced scouts saw something with Wong or what but normally you wouldn't hold on the runner on first there, especially with a lefty at bat. With that said, you can't take the bat out of Beltran's hands there. Silly move by Wong, it will be interesting to see how he and Matheny react to it. Will Wong pinch run again in a similar spot? Will the Cardinals, already with a few extra MLB-level players, look to trade Wong? 
• Mike Matheny is probably a good manager who will win a lot of games leading the Cardinals but his bullpen usage during the World Series has been extremely suspect. If Randy Choate is on your postseason roster, is warm and ready to go with David Ortiz at bat in a high leverage spot, why doesn't he come in? Ortiz had a 186 wRC+ against righties this year, and only a 94 wRC+ against lefites. There's also the little bit about how Matheny let Lynn bat in a big spot and how he decided to relieve Lance Lynn with another righty, Seth Maness. 
• Clay Buchholz is deserving of the gutsy praise he will get today. Getting through five innings with his diminished stuff is quite impressive and speaks to the improvements he made this year with location and changing speeds. I also wouldn't be surprised if he has surgery after the World Series.

The Giants are Loyal

Tim Lincecum and the Giants agreed to a two-year $35 million deal today. This is the same Lincecum who is 20-29 with a 4.76 ERA over the last two years and 383.3 innings pitched. The same Lincecum that was relegated to relief in last years postseason. That same Lincecum, the Giants decided was worth $17.5 million a year. 

Would I give Timmy that kind of contract? No, I probably wouldn't. But Dave Cameron hit the nail on the head today in his piece "Tim Lincecum and the Slow Death of ERA":

The days of simply sorting a leaderboard by the difference in xFIP and ERA and finding bargains might be over. The entrenched hold that ERA has had on pitcher valuations appears to be dwindling. It’s time we stop expecting pitchers like this to sign for peanuts simply because of their ERA. That’s not how major league teams are evaluating pitching anymore.

If this were just a few years ago, the chances are a smart front office would look past Lincecum's ERA (4.37) and take a flier on his 3.56 xFIP on a cheap, one-year deal. It's likely that someone coming off of Lincecum's recent history wouldn't get much more. Now, as Cameron points out, that's not so easy. Lincecum's not even really reaching free agency, getting locked up by his own team, looking past the inefficiencies of strictly looking at a pitcher's ERA.

Since the media hasn't quite caught up with the front offices in baseball, we will still hear a lot about ERA but one can no longer deny the decreasing role ERA holds in this sport. However, while I'm an unapologetic fan of advanced stats and xFIP over ERA, I'm not really on Sabean's page when it comes to rewarding loyalty, and  it seems as though this played a large part in Lincecum's deal.

In 2010, a 33 year old Aubrey Huff batted .290/.385/.506 helping the Giants win the World Series. The next offseason, Giants GM Brian Sabean was loyal and rewarded Huff with a two-year $22 million deal. Huff, unsurprisingly did not live up to his 2010 and  proceeded to bat a paltry .239/.309/.359 in his next 674 PAs over the next two years, taking time away from top prospect Brandon Belt's development.  This is the cost of "keeping the gang" together.

Tim Lincecum helped the Giants win two titles and under Sabean's watch, he was the best pitcher in the sport. Loyalty is often a good thing and there is a logic behind looking past his recent ERA shortcomings and I suspect Lincy will still be a solid pitcher over the next two years, but $35 million for Lincecum is still likely a little unwarranted.

Hunter Pence is also a free agent this year who helped the Giants win a World Series and unlike Lincecum, he actually played quite well this year with a 133 wRC+ and 5.4 WAR. Brian Sabean said that he wanted to resign Pence, and if recent history is any indicator my guess is that he does, at a high price.

The Giants are smart to look beyond an antiquated way of evaluating pitchers, it might also be smart for them to be a little less loyal.

World Series: Game One

When the playoffs started I said some iteration of the following several times:

"I don't really care who wins so long as the Red Sox don't play the Cardinals."

Well, that stinks for me but honestly, it's not too bad as this should be a fantastic series, starting with game one.

Wainwright vs. Lester

Adam Wainwright has been dominant all year. He led the league in innings pitched (241.2) and while he "only" finished seventh in the league in ERA (2.94) his FIP (2.55) and xFIP (2.80) were both third in the NL. During the postseason Wainwright's actually been better, only giving up four runs in 23 innings pitched. When people talk about the best pitchers in baseball, it's a short conversation before Waino's name is mentioned and that's totally how it should be. As his teammate Carlos Beltran knows, Wainwright features one of the game's best curveballs, second only to AJ Burnett in value. Combined with a cutter that he's used more often this year and pinpoint control (1.30 BB/9), Wainwright will be tough on Red Sox hitters all evening as he has been on hitters all season. 

Meanwhile, Red Sox "ace" Jon Lester has been solid but unspectacular with a 3.75/3.59/3.90 ERA/FIP/xFIP line in 213.1 innings pitched this season. Lester's ERA (2.33) has been better in 19.1 postseason innings thus far but it's somewhat superficial with an unsustainable .255 BABIP and 90.1 LOB% in October. The Cardinals can throw out several solid right-handed bats against Lester and on the season their righties had a .793 OPS against south paws. The Sox can't (reasonably) expect Lester to outpitch Wainwright for nine innings but if he can get out the Cardinals right handers (especially if Craig is to hit) it will go a long way to improving their chances of winning.

Rosenthal vs. Uehara

Whichever team is able to throw their closer in the ninth inning is probably going to win the game as both are among the best in the game. Uehara's 2013 season is nothing short of outstanding as it doesn't get much better than Uehara's 1.09/1.61/2.08 ERA/FIP/xFIP line. Everyone knows Uehara will throw the ball in the zone but his splitter is so good it doesn't even matter. Uehara started the season being treated with kid gloves as we were told he won't pitch too many back-to-back games or multiple innings. Fast forward and Uehara is pitching in the eighth and ninth inning in the playoffs, earning ALCS MVP honors.

Rosenthal isn't much less effective than Uehara, but he goes about it in a vastly different way. Whether Rosenthal has good control or just the stuff to compensate for it, I'm not sure but his 2.39 BB/9 is fantastic considering he's also supporting a 12.90 K/9. Edward Mujica was closing for the Cardinals for 90% of the season but the job is Rosie's now and in seven postseason innings, he's yet to give up a run while striking out nine batters against two walks. 

Rosenthal has thrown 95+ mph all season but he's actually throwing harder now than he has all year as you can see with the chart below. A potential late-inning matchup of his high heat vs. the Sox offense will be a blast to watch.

Brooks Baseball

Other Notable Tidbits

• Kevin Siegrist and Randy Choate are two left-handers that Papi and co. can expect to see in high leverage innings tonight. Siegrist can actually get opposite handed hitters out while Choate will be relegated to simply LOOGY (Lefty One Out Guy) duty against Ortiz but this is one fun matchup we can bank on seeing. 
• Junichi Tazawa did a great job against the Tigers bats in the ALCS and he will have to repeat that performance against the Cardinals righties tonight. 
• Allen Craig is on the roster and will DH tonight. He hasn't played in a while so rust is certainly an issue but he's one of the best bats on the team and if he's close to a facsimile of his former self, he might be a difference maker tonight and for the rest of the series.
• Yadier Molina. The Red Sox, led by Jacoby Ellsbury, like to run. Yadier likes to prevent that from happening and does it better than anyone. With two evenly matched teams, an extra steal or a slight hesitation on a lead could have an impact. 
• Xander Bogaerts is here to stay. Stephen Drew and Will Middlebrooks did not play well enough in this postseason to take the reigns from Bogaerts. Watching Bogaerts patience at the plate and ability to hit 400 ft homers isn't something you see too often in 21 year old shortstops, if ever. 
• Clutch. Whether you believe it's a repeatable skill or not, every good thing Beltran or Ortiz does will be viewed through the lense of their clutch ability, not the simple fact that an awesome player sometimes does awesome things.

Prediction

While I think that the Red Sox might be the overall better team, due to their lineup depth, Wainwright's advantage on the hill makes me say the Cardinals will win. But maybe it's just wishful thinking.

Quick(ish) LCS Predictions and Chatter

I'm saddened that the Oakland A's and Billy Beane's shit didn't work in the playoffs.* I'm also saddened that the Pirates were knocked off by Cardinals. This is all on top of the sadness that occurred when the Yankees missed the playoffs and the thought that the postseason means the season is essentially over. But, enough with the sad talk, at the very least the best four teams - the Red Sox, Tigers, Dodgers and Cardinals - made it to the league championship series. This is going to be fun to watch.

*This is sarcasm. The best way to do well in the playoffs is to get there and the A's have had several playoff appearances with Billy Beane. The fact that they haven't done better than an ALCS sweep speaks more to the randomness of the postseason than a knock on Billy Beane and the A's.

Depending on who you ask, starting pitching is either most important or the most overrated part of a team in the postseason. We have seen Adam Wainwright (2-0, 2 ER in 16 IP, 15/1 K/BB) and Justin Verlander (1-0, 1 ER in 15 IP, 21/2 K/BB) dominate in the division series and we have also seen 9 different Rays relievers hold the best offense in baseball to three runs. Having a dominant starter is a damn good thing* but with more rest between games and no need to navigate through a 162-game season, relievers hold a lot more value. Well, they should hold more value as an OK reliever with the platoon advantage is likely a better option than all but a few starters facing a lineup for a third or fourth time. Either way, it's funny that teams will often overspend to help their relief in the offseason yet underutilized it when it matters most and is most effective, in the postseason.  

*But then Freddy Garcia goes toe-to-toe with Clayton Kershaw. You can't predict ball. 

In terms of starting pitching, it's tough to beat the Tigers. Anibal Sanchez, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Doug Fister will face the Boston Red Sox. Jon Lester, John Lackey, Clay Buchholz and Jake Peavy doesn't carry the same cachet but their lineup is insane (115 wRC+ leads the league), their rotation had a 3.84 ERA (4th in the AL) and although their bullpen era was just 3.70 (10th in the AL) they have Koji Uehara, owner of a 1.09 ERA 0.57 WHIP.

The Red Sox won't beat you with studs the way Miggy, Prince Verlander and Scherzer will but top to bottom this is the best team in baseball and my prediction is the Sox in seven. 

The Cardinals have been good for a long time and the future only looks brighter. Carlos Beltran will likely leave via free agency but he'll be replaced by a full-time Matt Adams and/or one of the best position prospects in baseball in Oscar Taveras. The Cardinals have Adam Wainwright pitching at his peak and behind him is Shelby Miller (3.73 xFIP @ 22 years old), a rookie who has allowed 2 hits in his last 16 IP (Michael Wacha), a two-time top 50 pitching prospect who can throw triple-digits (Carlos Martinez) and Trevor Rosenthal.

This team is not only great now but they are flush with cheap, young talent. If they don't win this year they will have plenty of other opportunities. Of course, with the Dodgers payroll it's not like this is their only bullet for the decade. They still have to resign Clayton Kershaw but once that is done they could probably find a suitor for Andre Eithier and think about signing Robinson Cano and/or David Price a few years later. Neither are likely but with the way the Dodgers have done business thus far, nothing can be off the table. George Steinbrenner is probably giving them a nod of approval in heaven or hell, depending on the team you root for.

Adam Wainwright is a beast, nobody will doubt that, but the Dodgers can counter Waino's output with the best pitcher on the planet in Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw will also pitch twice (if need be) while Waino will likely only step on the mound once this series. The starters behind Zack Greinke aren't that impressive as Ricky Nolasco and Hyun-Jin Ryu have both struggled of late but Joe Kelly is starting game one of this series and may have to pitch twice. That's not a good thing.

Another non-good thing is the Dodgers health. The Cardinals are without Allen Craig but as anyone who has followed the Cardinals or scoured the waiver wire in fantasy baseball knows, Matt Adams can hit and there has been no downgrade from Craig to The Big Mayo besides the possible late-inning pinch hit at-bat. The Dodgers meanwhile are without Matt Kemp. Even though they have played admirably without him all season, that's still a blow. Another blow is Andre Eithier who may or may not be able to play more than pinch hitting duties. Eithier has his flaws, particularly against left-handed pitching but the downgrade to Skip Schumaker is a pretty sizeable one.

Any list of the top relievers/closers in baseball would certainly have to have Kenley Jansen and Trevor Rosenthal on it. Jansen struck out 111 batters and walked 18. Rosenthal struck out 108 and walked 20. These guys are among the best in the biz, hands down. Behind Jansen the Dodgers have the rejuvenated Brian Wilson with Paco Rodriguez to set up from the left side . Meanwhile the Cardinals have the flame-throwing Carlos Martinez and lefty Kevin Siegrest (0.45 ERA) to set up from the left side. These bullpens might be a draw and the kicker could be Shelby Miller. Miller slowed down as he reached his career innings total in September and he didn't see a game in the division series, starting or relieving. If Matheny were to use him in the rotation one would think he would get the nod over Kelly. So, if he's on the roster I would assume he'll enter a game at some point and Miller as a reliever for multiple innings might play a big role. Something to look out for.

I didn't think it would come to this but even after spending time talking about how starting pitching is overrated in the postseason, starting pitching is my rationale in choosing this series. Joe Kelly, assuming Shelby Miller doesn't start, will have to pitch against Zach Greinke twice and that's just too big of an advantage for me to call this one for the Cardinals. Dodgers in six.  

Quick(ish) Playoff Predictions: National League Division Series

The playoffs are here, the playoffs are here! Well, technically they have already started with Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay winning the one-game Wild Card playoff but the playoffs as we know them (since 1995) are here today. 

It's certainly an exciting time, the reason we play 162 (and sometimes 163) games is for this very moment. However, it also signifies that this is the beginning of the end of the 2013 season, which is sad. But, it will be sad later so let's forget about that enjoy the fun of the post season now. 

Dodgers vs. Braves

The Braves as a team actually have a better ERA (3.18) and FIP (3.44) than the Dodgers (3.25/3.45) but it's more or less a tossup when looking at those numbers. Plus, the Dodgers will be able to pitch Clayton Kershaw twice in this series, if it comes to that. As you may or may not know, Kershaw is pretty good. For the third year in a row Kershaw has led his league in ERA and this year it was 1.83. The Braves have a solid rotation and a solid team but with Kershaw pitching in 40% of the his team's games, the edge has to go to LA.

Atlanta, as they always do, have built a great team mostly by developing their own players. Kris Medlen, Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Craig Kimbrel, Brian McCann, Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward shows how damn well the Braves churn out homemade products. The Dodgers on the other hand are the exact opposite. Besides Clayton Kershaw, Kenley Jansen and AJ Ellis no particularly important Dodger was raised through their farm system, unless you want to count Yasiel Puig's transition from Cuba --> LA as a farm product. 

The Dodgers aren't without any faults playing without Matt Kemp (again) and either without or with a hobbled Andre Ethier but I expect their stars (Ramirez, Gonzalez, Puig, Kershaw, Greinke) and scrubs professional hitters approach to best the Braves. 

Prediction: Dodgers in 5. 

Cardinals vs. Pirates

Let's just get this out of the way: The Cardinals are the better team but I want the Pirates to win. I would love to find any angle to give the Pirates a better chance of winning but the Cardinals can best them by any angle you would like to check. This is partially because Francisco Liriano had to be used in the one-game playoff. This is also why it's important to win the division. Major League Baseball wanted to put meaning into winning the division with the new playoff structure, and that's what they got. Adam Wainwright can pitch twice and Liriano can only pitch once. That's pretty huge.

With that said, the Cardinals real advantage is in their lineup. The Cardinals were the best hitting team in the National League (106 wRC+) and the Pirates (98 wRC+) were good but not great. The Pirates certainly have the star power in likely MVP Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez's home runs, Starling Marte's brilliance in the field and on the base paths and Russell Martins understated brilliance, but the Cardinals are like the Red Sox MidWest, a lineup sans (many) holes. Even when a main player like Allen Craig is off the playoff roster, the Cardinals can just throw out a Matt Adams as a replacement, who has only hit a mere .284/.335/.503 this year. Sheesh. 

It's going to be fun to see the crowd in Pittsburgh and I will definitely be rooting along with them but this series comes down to two simple facts:

1) Waino gets two starts. 

2) The Cardinals back up first basemen would be the second best hitter on the Pirates.

Prediction: Cardinals in 4. 

Recent Retirements: Andy Pettitte

In the past week or so, Vladimir Guerrero, Todd Helton and now Andy Pettitte have or will announce their retirement. All three are/were fabulous players and all three played throughout the peak of my childhood fandom. But today I will talk about Mr. Pettitte.

This glare will be missed.

I'm a Yankee fan so naturally I was/am a huge fan of Andy Pettitte. In 1995 I saw a Yankees game in which Andy Pettitte started during his rookie season. He won the game. I felt I was onto something that nobody else saw and said "Andy Pettitte is going to be really good." Of course, Andy Pettitte was a top 50 prospect before the 1995 season and I was nine years old, so clearly I wasn't a big time scout but I suppose I was onto something.

The next year, Andy Pettitte and the Yankees were even better as Andy won 21 games and the Yankees won the World Series. At that moment in time (and for a few lingering years later), wins were a crucial part to how young Ben evaluated pitchers and I was livid that Pettitte finished second in the Cy Young behind Pat Hentgen. Who's Pat Hentgen? That's the question I asked. I didn't know much. Looking back on it however, I can't complain about how the voting shook out. Pettitte threw 221 innings with a 3.87/4.08 ERA/FIP and those 21 wins. That doesn't look as impressive today but this was 1996 (aka Steroids) and Pettittes ERA- and FIP- were 79 and 85 respectively. Meanwhile Pat Hentgen threw 265.2 innings with a 3.22/3.94 ERA/FIP. Again, these aren't fantastic numbers but Hentgen was certainly the better pitcher.

I've already talked too much about Pat Hentgen but he followed up his Cy Young year with a solid 1997and was more or less done after that. Andy Pettitte was just starting. Andy has already retired once so there was, there is and there will continue to be lots of words written about his career and his Hall of Fame chances. This is mostly because Pettitte is/was good enough to merit consideration but also because he's not quite good enough to be completely convinced one way or the other. That's why there are so many words talking about his chances, it's not obvious and we have to talk it out, and get page views. 2013 isn't over yet but so far Pettitte has 255 wins in 3,300 IP with a 3.86 ERA and a 84 FIP-, meaning Pettitte's been about 16% better than an average pitcher. That's solid. His 68.1 WAR (also very solid) puts him above an arbitrary threshold (60 WAR) to merit HOF consideration and depending on how one evaluates the Hall, his 276.2 postseason innings pitched should be worth at least something.

There is also that steroid/HGH thing. The Hall has come down hard on anyone who has been caught, admitted to or is even suspected of cheating (why isn't Jeff Bagwell in yet?). But, Pettitte is often lauded for how he handled that situation and maybe that whole breaking the rules snafu will mean less for him. That's stupid and arbitrary but it could be the truth. Also, it's not as fun to quickly end a Pettitte debate because he used HGH and that's that because cheaters never win and winners never cheat.

Compared to his peers, Andy may not be considered to be that great of a pitcher. That's because his peers are some of the greatest pitchers of all time - Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, Pedro Martinez, and yes, Kevin Brown. Andy Pettitte had a great career but so did Kevin Brown. They essentially threw the same amount of innings except Brown has a lower career ERA, more WAR and both a better and longer peak. Neither are "clean." The writers hate Brown and they seem to love Andy. Yankee fans remember Kevin Brown breaking his hand punching a wall. Yankee fans also remember Pettitte winning the clinching game of each playoff series in the Yankees 2009 World Series run, among many other notable things. However, take a peak at Kevin Brown from 1996-1998, I think you will be impressed. Either way, recency bias is at play here but perception can reality. This sucks for Kevin Brown, it's good for Andy.

I'm not sure if it's quite good enough to get Andy into the Hall of Fame but regardless, Pettitte's career will be looked at fondly, at least by those in NY (a few in Houston) and boys who saw him pitch a game in 1995. It's easy to get bogged down by the numbers when talking about a player's career and Hall of Fame chances and sometimes that can take the fun away from the equation. While I'm not a fan of evaluating players solely on feel, with news of Andy's impending retirement I choose to remember his glare waiting for the catcher's sign, his game 5 in the 1996 World Series, the 2009 playoff run and his surprise comeback in 2012. It's been fun watching Andy Pettitte pitch all of these years, I'll certainly be sad to see him go but I'm glad we'll have a chance to say goodbye and in five years let's bring up those numbers again. 

A Few Sneaky Good Seasons

Not all good seasons are created equal, in terms of getting noticed. If a player isn't on a playoff team or doesn't do particularly well in a fantasy baseball category, they can often get lost in the shuffle. Even non-fantasy players may fail to notice someone's awesome production if they're simply taking their walks and hitting a lot of doubles as we are mostly primed to take note of Chris Davis' homers and not necessarily the strikeout-to-walk ratio of a starter in Seattle.

If Elvis Costello played fantasy baseball and wanted to let his audience know about a few under-the-radar performances, and also wanted to illustrate his vulnerability in not necessarily achieving that goal, my guess is that he would re-word the lyrics to Sneaky Feelings:

Sneaky feelings seasons, sneaky feelings seasons,
you can't let those kind of feelings seasons show.
I'd like to get right through the way I feel for you,
but I've still got a long way to go.

Anywho, the three players below have probably been better than you have expected. Of course, if you either already expected the below or were previously aware of their production, I apologize and if you would like, I can uncover a few even sneakier seasons for a later post. 

Jayson Werth: The Nationals have been very disappointing, Jayson Werth has not. After missing half of the season last year and pretty much pooping the bed entirely in 2011, Werth's name wasn't flickering too heavily on anyone's radar. Considering he's generally been a jack-of-all-trades-master-of-none type of performer, it's not entirely surprising that his season isn't mentioned much, but a great season he has had thus far. Werth's hitting .323/.398/.528 with a 158 wRC+. He "only" has 21 home runs but he's 8th in the league in slugging. Among all OFs, only Mike Trout (180 wRC+) has had a better season at the plate. Werth's age has affected his fielding and baserunning which used to be elite but his overall game is still solid as his WAR ranks 13th among all OFs. It's unlikely that Werth will ever be worth the contract the Nationals handed him (7 years, $126 million) but if his bat can perform like this over the next few seasons, the Nationals will be happy(er).  

Shane Victorino: Many people have applauded the Red Sox offseason strategy of acquiring depth rather than stars when they signed Ryan Dempster, Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino. The applause certainly isn't/wasn't misguided but of the three,Victorino's contract was questioned the most even though he's been by far the most valuable. Victorino's 120 wRC+ would be the second highest mark of his career and his defensive and baserunning numbers have been off the charts this season. Small sample size warnings apply certainly apply in those categories but he's on pace to eclipse his career high in WAR and any way you want to slice it, Victorino has been playing some of the best ball of his career. He's hitting .295/.353/.456 and with 14 HRs and 20 SBs, Shane's certainly helped his fantasy owners along the way. As usual, Shane's been nicked up a tad here and there but he's also played 110 games and should finish with around a respectable 130 games played. The Red Sox would likely still have playoff aspirations without the Flyin' Hawaiin but even though he doesn't have Papi's pop or Pedroia's reputation, Shane's been as valuable as anyone to Boston's turnaround.

Homer Bailey: Bailey has thrown (another) no hitter and pitches for a team contending for the playoffs but he's still gone a tad unnoticed. I suppose it's our continued attachment to the win as Bailey has a pedestrian 10-10 record. However, if we dig just a tad deeper we can see Bailey's shine. 3.39/3.07/3.12 ERA/FIP/xFIP is a great line and if you prefer to use SIERA to evaluate pitchers, Bailey's got you covered as well (3.16). Bailey has upped his strikeouts to nearly one per inning (8.94 K/9), has the lowest walk-rate of his career (1.98 BB/9) and is doing it all with an average fastball velocity of 94 mph, a mark that is only topped by 6 other starting pitchers. A former top prospect, Bailey was long considered a bust until his solid 2012 season but he's taken it to another level this year and defining what an "ace" is can be pretty elusive but I'm pretty sure we can throw Homer's name into that bucket. 

Unpublished Post: 2013 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

I was looking through my drafts and found this, a post on fantasy baseball sleepers for the season that I never published/finished:

The Rookies

Adam Eaton: The Diamondbacks traded Chris Young largely in part because they expect Adam Eaton to take over duties in CF. In a 22 game sample last year Eaton showed great plate discipline, walking 14 times with only strikeouts and posting a .382 OBP. In 112 games in AAA last year Eaton batted an astounding .381/.456/.539 with 7 home runs and 38 stolen bases. 22 Games and 103 plate appearances is as small of a sample size as they come, but Eaton's consistently showed an ability to take a walk and not strike out much throughout his entire minor league career. As a full time player for the Diamondbacks with on-base ability, Eaton should be a great source of cheap steals with a chance to hit for some pop if he can improve in that area.  

Jean Segura: I briefly mentioned Segura in my 2013 predictions post as a breakout in 2013 but I will go in more depth here. Segura was traded to the Brewers in the Zack Greinke trade this year that brought him to the Angels. Segura has some good pedigree having been ranked as the 57th best prosepct by Baseball America before the 2011 season and as the 55th best prospect entering the 2012 season. Segura is expected to be the every day shortstop for the Brewers at the ripe age of 22 years old. Like Eaton, Segura limits his strikeouts, which is beneficial to his great speed. Segura stole 50 bases in 2010, 23 in 2011 and 44 in 2012. Segura doesn't have power but he likely won't put up a zero spot in the home run category either, with an ability to hit 5 or so homers. Segura's contact ability and speed should allow him to hit for an at least average average and steal 30 or so bases. In 2012 Segura could be Alcides Escobar bad version or Alcides Escobar good version which is essentially a slightly poor man's Elvis Andrus. Second base and short stop isn't quite as bad as it's been in previous years but it's still a weak position, so finding one that could hit .280 and steal 30 bases at a low cost could surely yield a lot of value on draft day. 

Adam Eaton's injury surely limited his abilities this season but he's also hit .273/.343/.410 with three homers and three steals in 45 games thus far.

Jean Segura has struggled of late but his 2013 breakout clearly happened -- .304 BA, 12 HR and 39 SBs.

I'm not sure I can take credit for an article I never actually wrote, but I think I'll make sure to write more fantasy baseball articles this offseason. You can count on that this offseason. That and A-Rod outrage all over the internet, but also fantasy baseball articles from the Ben's Baseball Bias.