Over at BaseballThinkFactory, Dan Szymborski posted his ZiPS projections on how Derek Jeter and Ichiro Suzuki's (along with Dickie Thorn) careers will/would end up. For Ichiro he adjusts his Japan statistics to what he'd do in the majors if he was on Seattle the entire time, and the career results are quite fantastic. In theory, if Ichiro played his entire career in Seattle and finishes up how ZiPS says, he'd finish with 4,188 hits. That would place him one hit behind Ty Cobb, and 68 behind Pete Rose. Obviously Ichiro did a lot of his damage in Japan, but this just goes to show how great he is.
Derek Jeter projects to finish with 3574 hits, 280 homers, 1986 runs, .310 batting average, and 116 OPS+. It says Jeter will still be an above average hitter from 2010-2012, but after that his OPS+ were under 100 (2013-2015). Regardless, that would place Jeter 5th all time in hits and 9th all time in runs. Shortstop wise (75% of your games at SS) those numbers would place him 1st in hits, 1st in runs, 3rd in homers, 7th in OPS+. Basically Jeter is tops in career counting numbers or averages at the shortstop position. Plus, these career projections are likely on the conservative side. It's obviously no sure thing for JEter to be getting regular playing time until 2015 without injury, but Jeter could be a special case. He's 35 years old and he's showed no real aging pattern, he's had career years at ages 25, 32, and 35. You can't fight age, and as you get older you should start getting worse, but maybe Jeter plays at a similar level for the next couple of years, and doesn't decline as quickly as the ZiPS projections suggest. It's not out of the question, and either way Jeter is still one of the best (probably 2nd best) shortstops of all time.
In other news, the Yankees dominated the White Sox last night with 2 pitchers (Mitre and Gaudin) throwing a one hitter. They're 81-48 with a 6 game lead in the division. They have the best record in baseball, and the 2nd best run differential. Anyway you want to slice it, the Yankees are sick and going to make the playoffs. They can legitimately start looking ahead towards October and planning for it.
Joba Chamberlain pitches today against Freddy Garcia, possibly fighting for his rotation spot in the playoffs. If the postseason started today, is there any chance you would pitch Joba ahead of Andy? The Yankees are now having Joba throw every 5th day from here on out to try to see if that consistency can get him going. He's been on and off all year and has been off in his last 4 starts (20 innings 19 earned runs) while Andy's last 8 starts have him at 3-1 with a 2.79 ERA and probably most surprising are the 54 strikeouts in 51.2 innings. It's an easy call right now, but the Yankees would love to have a problem deciding between 3rd and 4th starters if both are pitching well.
After this game the Yankees travel to Baltimore for 3, and then to Toronto for a 4 game series. It should be an easy week for the Yankees and I say they win tonight, and win 5 games against the O's and Jays.
Sunday, August 30, 2009
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Say It Aint So, Derek
The always reliable New York Post reports that Derek Jeter and actress Minka Kelly are secretly engaged. If it's true does that mean Arod and Khud will get engaged so Arod can one up Jeter? He shouldn't try though because this:
Is much better than this:
Arod can have the records, Cap'n Jetes will take the rings and girls and so would you. If this news is to be true, let's recap the ladies that have been linked with Jeter:
Is much better than this:
Arod can have the records, Cap'n Jetes will take the rings and girls and so would you. If this news is to be true, let's recap the ladies that have been linked with Jeter:
- Mariah Carey: Jeter banged it before she went crazy!
- Lara Dutta: Legit hot, I looked her up, I advise you do the same.
- Jordana Brewster: Fast and/or Furious always equals hot chicks.
- Adriana Lima: Amazing, I just felt it move.
- Vanessa Minnillo: Nick Lachey and you all would love to have Jeter's leftovers.
- Jessica Alba: No comment necessary.
- Vida Guerra: Have to say I thought Jeter had more class than this, but you can't blame him.
- Scarlett Johannson: Sssssssick.
- Jessica Biel: Ssssssick x2.
- Minka Kelly: If Jeter could go through all the ladies above and decide to slow down with her, I'm not going to be the one to criticize him.
Yankee Fans, Quick Question
Jeff's post brings up a good question for the Yankees this offseason, with Matsui's recent hot streak should the Yankees bring him back?
I think it's assumed the Yankees will bring back Damon on a 2 year $16m type of deal, in addition to that should they also bring back Matsui on a one year deal, not bring him back and rely on an Austin Jackson, or not bring him back and try to sign Jason Bay or Matt Holliday?
If the Yankees call up Jackson and rely on him next year they are looking at an outfield of Jackson in left, Melky/Gardner in center, and Swisher in right, that's a pretty weak outfield. They could also rotate Damon in LF and Jackson in CF, but this year Damon's UZR/150 at LF is -9.0. If that's a trend, he may be a DH himself.
If the Yankees sign Bay or Holliday they lock up the LF slot with good production, but also spend millions of dollars for presumabely several years. A lot of money will be coming off the books with Damon and Matsui, but should they immediately put that money into a 30 year old LF?
If they don't want to sign an expensive free agent, and don't want to rely on a rookie, the Yankees can simply resign Matsui on a cheap one year deal. It's not like teams are going to be chomping at the bit to sign Matsui, he can't play in the NL and only a few teams will have room for an aging DH.
After not wanting to sign Matsui the entire year, my choice is to now keep him. The difference in production between Matsui and Bay/Holliday isn't enough compared to the difference in price. Bay is definitely not worth it considering he's been a horrible LF the last several years and that he isn't a significantly better hitter than Matsui (24.4 park adjusted runs above average compared to Matsui's 17.1). Holliday makes more sense than Bay as he's both a better hitter and a solid fielder, but something like 4 years $56m just isn't something that appeals to me.
Austin Jackson should be a good player, but instead of relying on that to happen next year, the Yankes can resign both Damon and Matsui and work Jackson in as they need. Then in 2011 Jackson can be a full time player with some experience under his belt and the Yankees will have saved millions that they could use elsewhere.
What say you about this? Please post your thoughts in the comments section, maybe we can have a little discussion.
I think it's assumed the Yankees will bring back Damon on a 2 year $16m type of deal, in addition to that should they also bring back Matsui on a one year deal, not bring him back and rely on an Austin Jackson, or not bring him back and try to sign Jason Bay or Matt Holliday?
If the Yankees call up Jackson and rely on him next year they are looking at an outfield of Jackson in left, Melky/Gardner in center, and Swisher in right, that's a pretty weak outfield. They could also rotate Damon in LF and Jackson in CF, but this year Damon's UZR/150 at LF is -9.0. If that's a trend, he may be a DH himself.
If the Yankees sign Bay or Holliday they lock up the LF slot with good production, but also spend millions of dollars for presumabely several years. A lot of money will be coming off the books with Damon and Matsui, but should they immediately put that money into a 30 year old LF?
If they don't want to sign an expensive free agent, and don't want to rely on a rookie, the Yankees can simply resign Matsui on a cheap one year deal. It's not like teams are going to be chomping at the bit to sign Matsui, he can't play in the NL and only a few teams will have room for an aging DH.
After not wanting to sign Matsui the entire year, my choice is to now keep him. The difference in production between Matsui and Bay/Holliday isn't enough compared to the difference in price. Bay is definitely not worth it considering he's been a horrible LF the last several years and that he isn't a significantly better hitter than Matsui (24.4 park adjusted runs above average compared to Matsui's 17.1). Holliday makes more sense than Bay as he's both a better hitter and a solid fielder, but something like 4 years $56m just isn't something that appeals to me.
Austin Jackson should be a good player, but instead of relying on that to happen next year, the Yankes can resign both Damon and Matsui and work Jackson in as they need. Then in 2011 Jackson can be a full time player with some experience under his belt and the Yankees will have saved millions that they could use elsewhere.
What say you about this? Please post your thoughts in the comments section, maybe we can have a little discussion.
State of the Yankees, Issue 5
This week’s edition of “State of the Yankees” is a follow up to the first edition, which spent its efforts explaining my hatred for Hideki Matsui. And while I still don’t want to see him in pinstripes this week, anyone deserves their praise when they’ve been playing as well as Matsui has recently. When I wrote that edition, about a month ago, Matsui’s stats looked like this:
2009 (89 games as of July 27, 2009): .256 avg, 15 HR, 33 runs, 44 RBI
2009 (on pace according to ESPN): .256 avg, 25 HR, 56 runs, 78 RBI
We are now approaching the end of August, and here are what Matsui’s statistics look like:
2009 (111 games as of August 25, 2009): .271 avg, 23 HR, 44 runs, 71 RBI
2009 (on pace according to ESPN): .271 avg, 30 HR, 64 runs, 94 RBI
So, let’s look at that again. A month ago, Matsui was only projected to hit 25 home runs at the pace he was hitting during the season only 89 games into the season. In the 22 games that have been played since, Matsui has hit 8 home runs, and driven in 27 RBI, and has now changed his ESPN projections to 30 home runs and 94 RBI. Those type of numbers (along with a projected 147 games played) would be very close to his 2007 numbers when he drove in 103 runs and hit 25 home runs. In the month of August, Matsui has hit nearly 100 points over his season average entering August, at a .343 clip. His run driving in ability has helped solidify an offense that has helped the Yankees to a 16-6 record in the month entering Wednesday’s game.
More importantly, in the last series against the Red Sox (in Fenway no less), Matsui had two multi-HR games and helped the Yankees take 2/3 from the Sox, and further solidify their place atop the AL East. The Yankees now sit comfortably atop the East entering September, and the Red Sox can feel Texas and Tampa breathing down their necks. A good place for both teams, for Yankees fans that is; and Matsui has certainly been a major part of the Yankees overtaking of the Red Sox. While I will stand by my position that I do not want Matsui back next season, he certainly deserves his props for the amazing August he has had. Keep it up Hit-Deki!
Yankees Player of the Week: Read this article, and it is clearly Hideki Matsui who is deserving of the award this week. Along with the both two-HR games against the Red Sox in Fenway, Matsui has 5 two-hit games this week and has driven in 13. Numbers worthy of this weeks award.
Non-Yankees Fun Fact of the Week: Entering June 3rd, the Colorado Rockies sat 15 ½ games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West standings. Entering Wednesday night’s contest against the Dodgers, the Rockies have managed to shrink that deficit to a mere 2 games by going 50-22. The Rockies are rolling, and that once incredibly safe lead the Dodgers had over the rest of the NL West looks to be turning into an uncomfortable lead over fellow NL Wild Card contenders. Congrats to the Rockies, who are playing their way to a division title.
2009 (89 games as of July 27, 2009): .256 avg, 15 HR, 33 runs, 44 RBI
2009 (on pace according to ESPN): .256 avg, 25 HR, 56 runs, 78 RBI
We are now approaching the end of August, and here are what Matsui’s statistics look like:
2009 (111 games as of August 25, 2009): .271 avg, 23 HR, 44 runs, 71 RBI
2009 (on pace according to ESPN): .271 avg, 30 HR, 64 runs, 94 RBI
So, let’s look at that again. A month ago, Matsui was only projected to hit 25 home runs at the pace he was hitting during the season only 89 games into the season. In the 22 games that have been played since, Matsui has hit 8 home runs, and driven in 27 RBI, and has now changed his ESPN projections to 30 home runs and 94 RBI. Those type of numbers (along with a projected 147 games played) would be very close to his 2007 numbers when he drove in 103 runs and hit 25 home runs. In the month of August, Matsui has hit nearly 100 points over his season average entering August, at a .343 clip. His run driving in ability has helped solidify an offense that has helped the Yankees to a 16-6 record in the month entering Wednesday’s game.
More importantly, in the last series against the Red Sox (in Fenway no less), Matsui had two multi-HR games and helped the Yankees take 2/3 from the Sox, and further solidify their place atop the AL East. The Yankees now sit comfortably atop the East entering September, and the Red Sox can feel Texas and Tampa breathing down their necks. A good place for both teams, for Yankees fans that is; and Matsui has certainly been a major part of the Yankees overtaking of the Red Sox. While I will stand by my position that I do not want Matsui back next season, he certainly deserves his props for the amazing August he has had. Keep it up Hit-Deki!
Yankees Player of the Week: Read this article, and it is clearly Hideki Matsui who is deserving of the award this week. Along with the both two-HR games against the Red Sox in Fenway, Matsui has 5 two-hit games this week and has driven in 13. Numbers worthy of this weeks award.
Non-Yankees Fun Fact of the Week: Entering June 3rd, the Colorado Rockies sat 15 ½ games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West standings. Entering Wednesday night’s contest against the Dodgers, the Rockies have managed to shrink that deficit to a mere 2 games by going 50-22. The Rockies are rolling, and that once incredibly safe lead the Dodgers had over the rest of the NL West looks to be turning into an uncomfortable lead over fellow NL Wild Card contenders. Congrats to the Rockies, who are playing their way to a division title.
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Fans Scouting Report, 2009
I check Tom Tango's The Book Blog basically everyday, and he's asked for everyone to help out on his Fans Scouting Report. So, in a move that makes me feel important I'll ask you all to go here, and submit your own evaluations.
He asks for you to rely solely on your eyes, so don't do any research beforehand to tell you how Hanley Ramirez's footwork is, just answer how you've seen it.
He asks for you to rely solely on your eyes, so don't do any research beforehand to tell you how Hanley Ramirez's footwork is, just answer how you've seen it.
(Trading) Tuesday Is Mets Day
Because I keep posting about them, although this one is more Red Sox oriented beucase after a lot of rumors, and some complaining by Papelbon, the Mets and Red Sox finally agreed on a deal with the Mets sending Wagner to the Red Sox in exchange for two PTBNL.
I found the Papelbon comments pretty funny. I mean he has a point, why mess with a good thing, but this is coming from the guy that said he should be the closer over Mariano at the all-star game last year at Yankee Stadium.* Plus, if the Sox are close to acquiring a player, why talk publicly that you don't need that player? Sure, maybe Wagner comes in and it doesn't work out too well like the Gagne situation that Papelbon mentioned, but what would be worse is saying how you don't want Wagner to come and then having to actually deal with him coming.
*A year later and Mo is still better. Papelbon has a 2.04 ERA but on the heels of a 3.6 (a career worst) FIP, and 1.30 WHIP (a career worst). Meanwhile, Mr. Mo has a 1.87 ERA and a 2.84 FIP. He's struck out 59 batters and walked 9, good for a mind boggling 6.56 k/bb, lightyears ahead of Papelbon's 2.42. Papelbon is still an elite closer, but before people try saying he's the Red Sox' Mo, let's see him do it for another 10 years without skipping a beat.
The Red Sox have the best bullpen in the league and they likely don't need Billy Wagner, but that doesn't mean he won't make them a better team. It may be overkill, but the Sox can afford overkill so why not try it out? Plus, there are other teams who could use Wagner's services like the Rangers, Yankees, and Rays, so even just as a way of blocking them this seems like a harmless move. Another plus that seems to be forgotten is that he's lefty and throws 95. Wanger won't be the difference between the Sox making the playoffs or not, but if they do make the playoffs, he could have a big effect on how Francona is able to use his pen, and in a good way.
Recent struggles aside, Daniel Bard seems to be fit to close in the future and if not Billy Wagner could be a capable closer next year if all goes well. That is to say next season do the Red Sox really need Papelbon? It's a move that fans would hate, but a move that's smart and a move that a team like the Red Sox (and maybe only the Red Sox) would make. Teams love having that sure-fire closer and they spend millions of dollars on even average ones. The Red Sox can't go year to year with Papelbon forever, soon he will get expensive and require a multi year deal. I imagine there will be an NL team or two willing to give up some nice pieces for Papelbon this offseason, I wonder if the Red Sox will bite.
I found the Papelbon comments pretty funny. I mean he has a point, why mess with a good thing, but this is coming from the guy that said he should be the closer over Mariano at the all-star game last year at Yankee Stadium.* Plus, if the Sox are close to acquiring a player, why talk publicly that you don't need that player? Sure, maybe Wagner comes in and it doesn't work out too well like the Gagne situation that Papelbon mentioned, but what would be worse is saying how you don't want Wagner to come and then having to actually deal with him coming.
*A year later and Mo is still better. Papelbon has a 2.04 ERA but on the heels of a 3.6 (a career worst) FIP, and 1.30 WHIP (a career worst). Meanwhile, Mr. Mo has a 1.87 ERA and a 2.84 FIP. He's struck out 59 batters and walked 9, good for a mind boggling 6.56 k/bb, lightyears ahead of Papelbon's 2.42. Papelbon is still an elite closer, but before people try saying he's the Red Sox' Mo, let's see him do it for another 10 years without skipping a beat.
The Red Sox have the best bullpen in the league and they likely don't need Billy Wagner, but that doesn't mean he won't make them a better team. It may be overkill, but the Sox can afford overkill so why not try it out? Plus, there are other teams who could use Wagner's services like the Rangers, Yankees, and Rays, so even just as a way of blocking them this seems like a harmless move. Another plus that seems to be forgotten is that he's lefty and throws 95. Wanger won't be the difference between the Sox making the playoffs or not, but if they do make the playoffs, he could have a big effect on how Francona is able to use his pen, and in a good way.
Recent struggles aside, Daniel Bard seems to be fit to close in the future and if not Billy Wagner could be a capable closer next year if all goes well. That is to say next season do the Red Sox really need Papelbon? It's a move that fans would hate, but a move that's smart and a move that a team like the Red Sox (and maybe only the Red Sox) would make. Teams love having that sure-fire closer and they spend millions of dollars on even average ones. The Red Sox can't go year to year with Papelbon forever, soon he will get expensive and require a multi year deal. I imagine there will be an NL team or two willing to give up some nice pieces for Papelbon this offseason, I wonder if the Red Sox will bite.
New Johan Info.
Buster Olney reports today that there have been red flags since 2007 about Johan's elbow:
After Liriano threw 37.6% sliders in 2006 en route to Tommy John Surgery it shouldn't be a shocker that the Twins decided to limit the amount of sliders Johan threw, especially if there were already concerns with his elbow. It's also not like the slider wasn't a useful pitch, having positive pitch values according to Fangraphs, with the slider being his 2nd best pitch in 2006. Interesting then that he'd throw it 5% less in 2007 after it was such a useful pitch, another sign pointing towards a potential elbow issue.
The Mets signed Pedro Martinez and didn't get much production out of him, it wouldn't be a total shock if a similar thing happens with Johan. It will be very hard for Johan to live up to the salary that he'll get in the coming years. He'll essentially have to play at a similar level as he did from 2004-2008 for the next 5 years, and with declining velocity and this new (although possibly somewhat old) elbow issue, that looks unlikely. Production wise, the Pedro signing was a disaster, but people played it off as a "culture changing" move, that the Mets wouldn't have gotten Beltran or Delgado if it wasn't for the Pedro signing. That may be so (I'm not buying it), but will they say similar things about Johan if he needs elbow surgery and isn't the same ace as he has been before?
Then again, Chris Carpenter has had 2 Tommy John Surgeries and basically hasn't pitched since 2006 and he has a 2.16 ERA this year.
The Yankees looked stupid last year missing the playoffs with Melky stinking it up and Hughes/Kennedy not giving them anything. This year however Melky's been pretty good and Hughes has been a revelation the bullpen. It's too early to tell just like it was after one year last year, but considering the Yankees got Sabathia, long term and now maybe even the short term it may have been the right non-move for the Yankees.
UPDATE 4:02PM: Well, it looks like Johan will undergo minor elbow surgery and should return by Spring Training. It looks like the Mets may have dodged a bullet here, albeit from a gun that they pulled the trigger on.
At the end of the 2007 season, scouts reported that Santana's velocity was down and that he had basically stopped throwing his slider. Officials from the Red Sox and Yankees took this as a sign that Santana was having elbow trouble and wanted to avoid the torque inherent in throwing a slider.In 2006 Johan's average fastball velocity was 93.1 mph, in 2007 it was 91.7 and this year it's 90.5. In 2004, the start of Johan's amazing run he threw his slider 19.6%, in 2006 it was 16.5%, in 2007 it was 11.6% and this year it's 9.4%. So, the scouts that Olney speaks of clearly were on to something.
After Liriano threw 37.6% sliders in 2006 en route to Tommy John Surgery it shouldn't be a shocker that the Twins decided to limit the amount of sliders Johan threw, especially if there were already concerns with his elbow. It's also not like the slider wasn't a useful pitch, having positive pitch values according to Fangraphs, with the slider being his 2nd best pitch in 2006. Interesting then that he'd throw it 5% less in 2007 after it was such a useful pitch, another sign pointing towards a potential elbow issue.
The Mets signed Pedro Martinez and didn't get much production out of him, it wouldn't be a total shock if a similar thing happens with Johan. It will be very hard for Johan to live up to the salary that he'll get in the coming years. He'll essentially have to play at a similar level as he did from 2004-2008 for the next 5 years, and with declining velocity and this new (although possibly somewhat old) elbow issue, that looks unlikely. Production wise, the Pedro signing was a disaster, but people played it off as a "culture changing" move, that the Mets wouldn't have gotten Beltran or Delgado if it wasn't for the Pedro signing. That may be so (I'm not buying it), but will they say similar things about Johan if he needs elbow surgery and isn't the same ace as he has been before?
Then again, Chris Carpenter has had 2 Tommy John Surgeries and basically hasn't pitched since 2006 and he has a 2.16 ERA this year.
The Yankees looked stupid last year missing the playoffs with Melky stinking it up and Hughes/Kennedy not giving them anything. This year however Melky's been pretty good and Hughes has been a revelation the bullpen. It's too early to tell just like it was after one year last year, but considering the Yankees got Sabathia, long term and now maybe even the short term it may have been the right non-move for the Yankees.
UPDATE 4:02PM: Well, it looks like Johan will undergo minor elbow surgery and should return by Spring Training. It looks like the Mets may have dodged a bullet here, albeit from a gun that they pulled the trigger on.
Cy Young Favorites
Whereas RBI on winning teams mean everything for most MVP voting, wins mean everything for the Cy Young. That's not how it should be but that's the truth. Because of that it should be no surprise when BBWAA Richard Griffin lists his Cy Young favorites as the following:
1. CC Sabathia: Yes, the Yankees score a boxcar full of runs for him, but after being 1-3, with a 4.85 ERA after his start on May 2, coming out of the gate slowly in the pressure cooker of the Bronx, Sabathia has gone 14-4, winning his last five starts. The Bombers have scored 103 runs in his 15 wins.
2. Justin Verlander: The fireballing Tiger disappeared after his impressive rookie and sophomore seasons in 2006, '07, but has come back to top the AL in strikeouts and Detroit to the Central lead.
3. Josh Beckett: He was runner-up to Sabathia in '07 even though he recorded 20 wins. Averaging just over 6 2/3 innings per start, he has allowed 17 runs and 10 homers in his last three outings over 20 1/3 innings.
4. Zack Greinke: After 10 starts, the Royals righty seemed a mortal lock for the Cy, posting an 8-1 record through May 26, with an 0.84 ERA. Since then, as his team spiralled down, Greinke has gone 3-7, but leads in ERA and ranks second in Ks.
5. Roy Halladay: So much attention was focused on Doc during the month of July that anything he has done since seems like a failure. Nobody could have handled that debacle any better, but the distractions and unwanted attention cost him any chance at Cy.
6. Felix Hernandez: So much has been expected of Felix. Now that he has finally showed up to lead the Mariners to contention, he will garner many of the left coast writers' votes. His team scored five runs in his last three starts; he hasn't won since Aug.1.
Mark Teixeira has Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon hitting ahead of him with Alex Rodriguez behind, therefore he gets a lot of RBI opportunities. CC Sabathia and Josh Beckett play on great teams with great bullpens, therefore they get a lot of wins. They are among the best pitchers in baseball, but wins shouldn't equal hardware although they inveitabely always do. Just look at Barry Zito circa 2002. He had a great year he went 23-5 with a 2.75 ERA, but Pedro Martinez went 20-4 with a 2.26 ERA. To put that in a little more context, Zito had a 158 ERA+ and Pedro had a 202, which is beyond significant.
This year Greinke has a Pedro-lite 180 ERA+ and Sabathia, Verlander, Beckett have ones of 125, 135, and 130 respectively. The pitcher closest to Greinke only places 6th on that list but has the 2nd best ERA+ of 159. Essentially you can make a case that the reverse order would be better than the current one.
Now, I don't mean to criticize Griffin for this list, as it may not be who he thinks is deserving, just who are the favorites. And he should know, being in the BBWAA, who the favorites are, but it is still annoying to find that the same old practices used to vote for MVP are likely going to be used for the Cy Young.
CC Sabathia is having a great season. He gives the Yankees innings every time out and since the rough beginning he's been one of the best pitchers in the league. He, however, has not been the best pitcher in the league thus far. If CC Sabathia got the run support that Zach Greinke gets I don't think CC Sabathia would be on this list (or mine below). A lot can change in the last month plus of baseball and this award is far from being final (unlike the MVP where Mauer should have that shit locked up), but right now it can't be CC.
Without any further ado (even though I have already rambled for a little while), here is my list for AL Cy Young 2010:
- Zach Greinke: He's hands down been the best pitcher in the league. If he has only 12 wins at the end of the year maybe that's enough to deservingly hurt him, but at this point he's still the best pitcher, easy.
- Justin Verlander: He leads in strikeouts and has been a horse all year. 2nd in Wins, 2nd in FIP, top 10 in ERA, just a dominating season
- Felix Hernandez: Overlooked amazing season, 2nd in ERA.
- Roy Halladay: He's somehow lost the race already in Griffin's mind, but he's just 2 wins off the league leader and has an ERA better than anyone not named Greinke or Felix.
- CC Sabathia: He's still having a great year even if it's not the best. His chances rely completely on his win totals.
- Josh Beckett: Seemed to have a sub-par year last year but that was mostly a product of luck. He has been one of the best pitchers in baseball the last few years including this one.
- Jon Lester: He's actually been better than some of the guys above him, but his bad luck early in the year has really hurt his ERA, and he only has 10 wins on a great team. However, since May 31 he's 7-2 with a 2.12 ERA.
Johan To Join The Rest Of The Team On The DL?
He's being scratched from his next start, will see a doctor today, and so far the word is he'll likely need surgery. That Johan is hurting shouldn't be a surprise with Reyes, Wright, Beltran, Delgado, and several others on the disabled list. The surprise may be that he's been hurt for a while now as the article mentions that Manuel has been aware of Johan's pain for a few starts. It was even bad enough apparently that Johan hasn't thrown in between starts for an extended period.
So, Manuel was "terribly concerned" about Johan's pain but didn't do anything about it until it got to the point where Johan couldn't pitch anymore? Great move! Elbow problems that progressively get worse don't just magically disappear, it doesn't take a doctor to know that. However, it does take someone that isn't an idiot, and I'm not sure there are too many non-idiots making decisions for the Mets recently. This is also a pitcher who had offseason knee surgery, experienced elbow pain in spring training, pitches on a team with nothing to play for, and oh he's also owed over $90m through 2013. But at least Jerry and Omar are back next year, right?
There is a large amount of luck involved for the Mets to have all these injuries occur this year, but the way they handled them could screw them over for next year. Carlos Beltran kept trying to play on a bad knee, Carlos Delgado kept trying to play on a bad hip, and Johan Santana kept trying to pitch on a bad elbow. Johan and Beltran could potentially miss parts of next year if surgery is required, and that's not bad luck that's just stupidity when you realize both of them could have rested to not further the problem or get surgery this year not affecting them for 2010.
So how can we tie this into Trading Tuesday? Johan could miss some time with surgery, Ollie Perez still has those "psychological issues" a/k/a bad control, John Maine can't be relied on, so basically next year the Mets are going to need to acquire some starters. Some targets to keep in mind:
Risk/Reward Free Agents: Ben Sheets, Erik Bedard, Rich Harden, Carl Pavano, Randy Johnson. These guys could be great, or they could not even pitch one inning. They are a good gamble for your 5th or maybe 4th starter, but not something to rely on. The Mets have nobody to rely on except Johan and he could be hurt, maybe even seriously. So maybe they pickup a Bedard, but the work wouldn't be done there.
Reliable Free Agents: There aren't many reilable and good free agent pitchers for next year. But some names are Jarrod Washburn, John Lackey, Jon Garland, and Randy Wolf. The Mets could try there hand with ex-Mariners Washburn and Bedard int eh back of their rotation.
Some Trade Targets: Brandon Webb, Roy Halladay, Aaron Harang, Jeremy Guthrie, and Gil Meche. All those pitchers are on bad teams and should theoretically be available.
So, Manuel was "terribly concerned" about Johan's pain but didn't do anything about it until it got to the point where Johan couldn't pitch anymore? Great move! Elbow problems that progressively get worse don't just magically disappear, it doesn't take a doctor to know that. However, it does take someone that isn't an idiot, and I'm not sure there are too many non-idiots making decisions for the Mets recently. This is also a pitcher who had offseason knee surgery, experienced elbow pain in spring training, pitches on a team with nothing to play for, and oh he's also owed over $90m through 2013. But at least Jerry and Omar are back next year, right?
There is a large amount of luck involved for the Mets to have all these injuries occur this year, but the way they handled them could screw them over for next year. Carlos Beltran kept trying to play on a bad knee, Carlos Delgado kept trying to play on a bad hip, and Johan Santana kept trying to pitch on a bad elbow. Johan and Beltran could potentially miss parts of next year if surgery is required, and that's not bad luck that's just stupidity when you realize both of them could have rested to not further the problem or get surgery this year not affecting them for 2010.
So how can we tie this into Trading Tuesday? Johan could miss some time with surgery, Ollie Perez still has those "psychological issues" a/k/a bad control, John Maine can't be relied on, so basically next year the Mets are going to need to acquire some starters. Some targets to keep in mind:
Risk/Reward Free Agents: Ben Sheets, Erik Bedard, Rich Harden, Carl Pavano, Randy Johnson. These guys could be great, or they could not even pitch one inning. They are a good gamble for your 5th or maybe 4th starter, but not something to rely on. The Mets have nobody to rely on except Johan and he could be hurt, maybe even seriously. So maybe they pickup a Bedard, but the work wouldn't be done there.
Reliable Free Agents: There aren't many reilable and good free agent pitchers for next year. But some names are Jarrod Washburn, John Lackey, Jon Garland, and Randy Wolf. The Mets could try there hand with ex-Mariners Washburn and Bedard int eh back of their rotation.
Some Trade Targets: Brandon Webb, Roy Halladay, Aaron Harang, Jeremy Guthrie, and Gil Meche. All those pitchers are on bad teams and should theoretically be available.
Monday, August 24, 2009
Moneyball Report
I like the idea of the Moneyball Reports, I think they are a good way of looking at how teams are doing in certain areas that don't get a lot of press. However, I'm not sure they are necessary every week. Week to week not much changes statistically for teams especially this late in the year. For instance, the Yankees have the best OBP in baseball, if they have a bad week they'll still have at least the 2nd best OBP, not sure it's worth my time to write or your time to read that on a weekly basis. So, the weekly Moneyball Reports where I give the team leaders and losers in OBP, FIP, UZR, and ExpWin% will now be reduced to monthly reports (where it's more reasonable and useful to write/read) that will occurr the first Monday of every month in season.
With all of that said I'll still try to do Moneyball related posts for Moneyball Monday.
However, with that said, I am going on an extended trip where I may or may not have internet so the regularity in which you can expect posts will drop significantly. I'm not joking here either. I try to average around 30 posts a month (I usually end up with mid 20s), it won't be because of personal choice but I wouldn't be surprised if this blog got reduced to 5-10 posts a month. Oh well the pitfalls of a chosen one going to his intended home...how about them Yankees though?
With all of that said I'll still try to do Moneyball related posts for Moneyball Monday.
However, with that said, I am going on an extended trip where I may or may not have internet so the regularity in which you can expect posts will drop significantly. I'm not joking here either. I try to average around 30 posts a month (I usually end up with mid 20s), it won't be because of personal choice but I wouldn't be surprised if this blog got reduced to 5-10 posts a month. Oh well the pitfalls of a chosen one going to his intended home...how about them Yankees though?
Friday, August 21, 2009
Le Le Le Let Me Know Your Fantasyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy Friday
This blog's main focus isn't fantasy baseball, so when I post predictions I'm kind of squeezing myself, if I'm wrong it looks bad since I haven't made many predicions. Luckily though I've been pretty good so far, not great but pretty good. On August 7th I said to buy Cliff Lee, Matt Holliday and Rich Harden and I said to sell Washburn and Jake Peavy. I'm not here to toot my own horn (I've said to sell Joe Mauer Mark Reynolds and others in other posts this year) but I'm here just to say that maaaaaaybe what I say carries the tiniest bit of weight.
Since the trade deadline has passed in real life and most likely in fantasy, there isn't much you can do to help your team. Obviously your waiver wire spot is useless, use it on anyone that is even the slightest upgrade. Pay attention to players that are dropped and any September callups to catch lightening in a bottle. Beyond that you basically gotta pray your ace doesn't fall on his face in September or that the 2nd place team doesn't have a guy knock 12 homers in the final month.
With all that said let's turn our heads towards next year with my first preliminary top 10 for '10:
Since the trade deadline has passed in real life and most likely in fantasy, there isn't much you can do to help your team. Obviously your waiver wire spot is useless, use it on anyone that is even the slightest upgrade. Pay attention to players that are dropped and any September callups to catch lightening in a bottle. Beyond that you basically gotta pray your ace doesn't fall on his face in September or that the 2nd place team doesn't have a guy knock 12 homers in the final month.
With all that said let's turn our heads towards next year with my first preliminary top 10 for '10:
- Albert Pujols: Pujols is a lock for .330 40 120 every year with great runs and a few SB thrown in. Hanley may put together a .350 30/30 year but it's not likely and you gotta go with the consistency for number one.
- That makes Hanley Ramirez the obvious #2 choice. I don't think he'll be an auto 30 sb threat in the upcoming year(s), or necessarily be a lock for 30 homers and he shouldn't be batting .350+ right now (.400 BABIP) but who else would you take here?
- Maybe Chase Utley? There is a case to be made except 2b aren't so shallow with guys like Zobrist, Hill, Cano, Scutaro, Asdrubal and others having nice years. Utley puts up power/speed numbers like an OF but qualified at 2b. .300 30 100 100 15 in the bank, tough to beat.
- Ryan Braun: He doesn't have the 30 SB potential that some top players have but he's basically a lock for around 40 homers, and there aren't many other players that can do that...with 15 steals, 300 average, and a shitton of Runs/RBI thrown in.
- Matt Kemp: [Madden Voice] Now here's a guy [/Madden Voice] who does have the 30 SB potential. He has realistic 30/30 potential but the good thing is that he doesn't have to get there to merit this ranking.
- Tim Lincecum: I probably wouldn't draft him before the guys below him, but each year he'll probably rank higher than them and the guys above. He's the best pitcher in fantasy hands down. 15+ wins, 2.5 ERA 260 K's, whip around 1.1. Some pitchers may get one or two of those, none get all 4.
- Carl Crawford: Huge SB threats like to be compared to other huge SB threats. Why draft Crawford if I can get Bourn 10 rounds later? Crawford is way more than just a steal threat however, he'll bat .300 and hit 15 homers, things Bourn and Ellsbury (or at least their owners) would dream about. He's essentially a healthy Reyes at OF which places him in the bottom half of the top 10 not the upper half.
- David Wright: If we assume he is a legit 30 SB threat then you have to put him here. I'd probably rather wait and get another 3b cause 8 homers is kind of scary, but he'll do better than that next year (career 14.1% HR/FB, 6.8% this year). Plus Reyes and Beltran will actually be playing next year.
- Miguel Cabrera: Maybe I'm biased because I just traded for him in a keeper league but this kid's legit. He lead the AL in HR last year and this year he's batting .335, I have a feeling next year it all somewhat comes together. He's not having the greatest year this year because his RBI are low, but he's a world class hitter who has never had a bad year, and that's something you want in your top pick.
- This one is pretty tough, there are several guys around here who are pretty much similar. They are former top picks that have question marks, and current breakouts who may or may not be legit. Instead of choosing just one I'll list 'em here:
- Jose Reyes: It's hard relying on a guy who relies on steals who has leg problems, but if everything is OK he could be the best player in fantasy.
- Joe Mauer: If you think his "regression" will still mean he's .340 30 homers then you will be disappointed. He's having one of the best seasons ever for a catcher in real life and fantasy, but I wouldn't count on anything close to a repeat next year. With that said, the catcher position is at a real low. Doumit and Martin have sucked making Mauer more valuable, so position wise he still could be worth the pick.
- Mark Reynolds: The cardinal rule in fantasy is never pay for a career year. If for some reason Reynolds has gotten so good where this is his actual talent level then he'd be a top 5 player easy. He's a player I'd like to have on my team but not someone I'd want to rely on to build my team around.
- Mark Teixeira: He doesn't have the potential of the guys around him but he doesn't have the risk either. For those of you in the know, he's a very "Schulmanesque" kind of player.
- Matt Holliday: His rise and fall the last year has been pretty funny. On Colorado he was a first rounder and on Oakland he was suddenly a third rounder. His first half struggles made him a regular old boring OF then a trade to the NL and he's now afirst rounder again. He's not as good as he's his highs and not as bad as his lows.
- Any non-Lincy pitcher. I'd prefer any of these hitters or even some below them (you'll have to wait till next time, sucha tease right?) but if you want to get a hitter and pitcher in the wrap around you could go with a number of guys like Verlander Greinke and Felix depending on your preference.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
A Short Stop for Shortstops
Between Jeter breaking the record for most hits for a shortstop and Jeff posting about how he's one of the best ever, I figured I'd take a quick glance at the all time greats.
To do that let's take a look at Rally's Historical WAR for shortstops.
Honus Wagner - 134.7
Alex Rodriguez - 95.2
George Davis - 90.7
Cal Ripken - 89.8
Robin Yount - 76.8
Arky Vaughn - 75.6
Luke Appling - 68.9
Barry Larkin - 68.8
Alan Trammel - 66.8
Pee Wee Reese - 66.4
Ozzie Smith - 64.7
Joe Cronin - 62.6
Derek Jeter - 62.2
First thoughts are that Larkin and Trammel should be in the Hall, they are top 5-10 shortstops of all time.
Back to Jeter. It's important to know that Rally's Historical WAR takes defense into account, so you can't whine about Jeter's defense hurting his value because it already has. Anyways, as you can see Derek Jeter is already one of the best shortstops of all time, not that anyone thought otherwise but it's cool to see. The question then is exactly how good is he or will he be in the world of shortstops?
Alex Rodriguez is more of a 3b, Robin Yount played half a career in CF, and George Davis basically played a different game (starting his career in 1890) so you can more or less take them off the list. So with those subtractions, Jeter would become a top 10 shortstop. And that's without accounting for playoffs, championships, and all the other intangibles that come along with Jeter, he's not deserving of all the praise he gets but some of it is at least somewhat warranted.
That list doesn't count this season too, which has been a great one for the Jeter. Fangraphs WAR has jeter at 5.3, probably safe to say he gets to 5.5 or so on a conservative estimate. Fangraphs and Rally have different versions of WAR but for this sake let's just add on Fangraphs 2009 total to Jeter's career. That would put Jeter at 67.7 WAR which if you take out Arod and Yount, places him 6th all time. The thing is Jeter's career isn't over, and if this season is any indication it isn't necessarily close to being older. We can't expect the resurgent 2009 Jeter to repeat this performance for the next couple of years, but even if Jeter just does his "lousy" 2008 in the future (~3 WAR) he'll still rise to third on the list.
Honus Wagner is untouchable, he's a top 10 player of all time, Jeter won't touch him. Cal Ripken is also unlikely, Jeter is 22.1 WAR behind him. To reach Ripken he'll need to play until he's 41 at the same level he is playing at this season. But, Ripken also played a lot of games at 3b, more than I thought with over 28% of Ripken's career being played there. This could get kind of tricky but if Jeter is able to finish his career at SS (and this new found positive defender Jeter could make that possible) you can make the case Jeter is/will be the 2nd best shortstop of all time. Everyone always inherently knew that Jeter was one of the best, but that he could reasonably be the 2nd best isn't something I figured would happen.
UPDATE 12:00 PM: I did this list just using Rally's WAR to make it more simple. However, in reality it's much more complicated. Arky Vaughn had to fight in WWII losing 4 years off his career which kills his WAR but his rate stats are still excellent. Cal Ripken Jr. also hung around forever without being much of a player, which still helps his career WAR. From 1992-2001 his OPS+ was 96. That's to say that for basically half of his career he was a below average hitter playing mostly 3b. It's hard to say what Vaughn would have done if there wasn't a draft, but if Jeter keeps up a similar pace even looking at it through other angles he's still likely looking at being the 2nd best SS to play this game, nice job Cap'n.
To do that let's take a look at Rally's Historical WAR for shortstops.
Honus Wagner - 134.7
Alex Rodriguez - 95.2
George Davis - 90.7
Cal Ripken - 89.8
Robin Yount - 76.8
Arky Vaughn - 75.6
Luke Appling - 68.9
Barry Larkin - 68.8
Alan Trammel - 66.8
Pee Wee Reese - 66.4
Ozzie Smith - 64.7
Joe Cronin - 62.6
Derek Jeter - 62.2
First thoughts are that Larkin and Trammel should be in the Hall, they are top 5-10 shortstops of all time.
Back to Jeter. It's important to know that Rally's Historical WAR takes defense into account, so you can't whine about Jeter's defense hurting his value because it already has. Anyways, as you can see Derek Jeter is already one of the best shortstops of all time, not that anyone thought otherwise but it's cool to see. The question then is exactly how good is he or will he be in the world of shortstops?
Alex Rodriguez is more of a 3b, Robin Yount played half a career in CF, and George Davis basically played a different game (starting his career in 1890) so you can more or less take them off the list. So with those subtractions, Jeter would become a top 10 shortstop. And that's without accounting for playoffs, championships, and all the other intangibles that come along with Jeter, he's not deserving of all the praise he gets but some of it is at least somewhat warranted.
That list doesn't count this season too, which has been a great one for the Jeter. Fangraphs WAR has jeter at 5.3, probably safe to say he gets to 5.5 or so on a conservative estimate. Fangraphs and Rally have different versions of WAR but for this sake let's just add on Fangraphs 2009 total to Jeter's career. That would put Jeter at 67.7 WAR which if you take out Arod and Yount, places him 6th all time. The thing is Jeter's career isn't over, and if this season is any indication it isn't necessarily close to being older. We can't expect the resurgent 2009 Jeter to repeat this performance for the next couple of years, but even if Jeter just does his "lousy" 2008 in the future (~3 WAR) he'll still rise to third on the list.
Honus Wagner is untouchable, he's a top 10 player of all time, Jeter won't touch him. Cal Ripken is also unlikely, Jeter is 22.1 WAR behind him. To reach Ripken he'll need to play until he's 41 at the same level he is playing at this season. But, Ripken also played a lot of games at 3b, more than I thought with over 28% of Ripken's career being played there. This could get kind of tricky but if Jeter is able to finish his career at SS (and this new found positive defender Jeter could make that possible) you can make the case Jeter is/will be the 2nd best shortstop of all time. Everyone always inherently knew that Jeter was one of the best, but that he could reasonably be the 2nd best isn't something I figured would happen.
UPDATE 12:00 PM: I did this list just using Rally's WAR to make it more simple. However, in reality it's much more complicated. Arky Vaughn had to fight in WWII losing 4 years off his career which kills his WAR but his rate stats are still excellent. Cal Ripken Jr. also hung around forever without being much of a player, which still helps his career WAR. From 1992-2001 his OPS+ was 96. That's to say that for basically half of his career he was a below average hitter playing mostly 3b. It's hard to say what Vaughn would have done if there wasn't a draft, but if Jeter keeps up a similar pace even looking at it through other angles he's still likely looking at being the 2nd best SS to play this game, nice job Cap'n.
Housekeeping
I asked and the public responded, I shouldn't Tweet.
I have to say I am glad. I am not against tweeting, but if my followers wanted me to I would be required to do so, and that would require more effort.
If your opinions on this matter change feel free to tell me and then I'll Tweet. At which point you won't have to tell me anything, just Tweet it.
I have to say I am glad. I am not against tweeting, but if my followers wanted me to I would be required to do so, and that would require more effort.
If your opinions on this matter change feel free to tell me and then I'll Tweet. At which point you won't have to tell me anything, just Tweet it.
State of the Yankees, Issue 4
Once again we welcome friend and fellow blogger Jeff Winston's weekly take on the Yankees. His blog can be found here.
It’s that time of the week again… time for another edition of “State of the Yankees.” All seems right in the Yankees Universe as of now, as they maintain a 7 game lead over the Red Sox in the division, and also continue to have the best record in baseball. The team seems to be firing on all cynlindars, and all fans in the Universe can hope is that these type of play carries itself over into October. This week’s edition is not devoted to a recap of last week’s results… well, not the way you would think. This week, I think it would be incredibly disrespectful to not devote this edition to one of the greatest Yankees of all time; Derek Jeter.
Why? Well, during the 10-3 loss to Seattle on Sunday, Derek Jeter hit his 2,673rd and 2,674th hits of his career at shortstop, which helped him set the all-time record as a shortstop for career hits. Let’s say that one more time to try and let it sink in. Derek Jeter, with his 2,674th hit as a shortstop, is now the all-time leader in career hits as a shortstop. Breaking Luis Aparicio’s record of 2,673, Derek Jeter continues to write himself in the record books; both as a Yankee and as a baseball player overall.
When I first read about his accomplishment, I couldn’t believe it. When you think about the greatest shortstops of all time, you start juggling names like Honus Wagner or Cal Ripken Jr. One could even argue that the greatest shortstop of all time was pushed over to 3B when he was traded to the Yankees in Alex Rodriguez.
Regardless, let’s get back on subject. Derek Jeter, with his accomplishment Sunday afternoon, has cemented himself in history. Jeter, who just turned 35 this past June, has shown the baseball world this season that he is still relevant. Batting leadoff, ahead of Damon, he has put up a .330 average and .394 OBP, with 80 runs scored as of August 19. On a larger perspective, Jeter currently sits at 60th all time with 2,694 career hits; and the third most of an active player (behind Griffey and Vizquel, who sits on 2,669 hits as shortstop).
Jeter, at just 35, sits at nearly 2,700 hits… only 300+ hits away from the feat of 3,000 hits; which is recognized as one of those “HOF qualifying” stats. I for one have never thought of it on that scale, but what one must realize is that besides watching one of the greatest Yankees of all time, fans who get a chance to see Jeter or have been fortunate enough to watch him since 1995 have been watching arguably the greatest shortstop of all time. It’s quite a statement to make about Jeter, but he still has plenty of good years left in the tank to further qualify himself. Good luck Jeter on getting to 3,000 (probably going to happen during the first half of the 2011 season), and may your continued success help the continued success of the Yankees!
Yankees Player of the Week: How do I NOT give this to Derek Jeter this week. As a quick recap to those who just scrolled down to this, Jeter is now the all-time leader in hits as a shortstop. Currently sitting at 2,694 hits (as of August 19), Jeter’s next milestone/accomplishment will come when he gets his 2,722nd hit, which will make him pass Lou Gehrig on the all-time Yankees hits leaderboard. It is amazing that none of the great Yankees ever got to 3,000 hits. Jeter needs only 28 hits to pass Gehrig to have the most hits of any Yankee, and only 306 more hits to get to 3,000. Yankees fans are certainly watching history in the making.
Non-Yankees Fun Fact of the Week: Despite the doubt that a deal would happen, the Nationals were able to real in their #1 overall pick in Stephen Strasburg. The 102mph flamethrower will hopefully see some time in the big leagues this year during September call ups, or he will headline at the head of the Nationals rotation at the beginning of the 2010 season. Congrats to the Nats and Strasburg, for taking a MAJOR step in the right direction as an organization… and good luck to Strasburg against major league hitters.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Trading Tuesday (On Wednesday)
Sorry for the late Trading Tuesday post but awww here it goes...
The Nationals signed Stephen Strasburg as you all might have heard. Instead of the $50m Boras had mentioned during the draft, Strasburg signed for a totally reasonable although record breaking 4 year $15.1m contract. Everyone said that the Nationals and Strasburg had a lot to lose by not doing this deal, and they did, but it wasn't even in my mind. Leaving $15m on the table to sit out a year and possibly getting hurt or lose effectiveness is a silly idea but I bet if he did sit out he'd end up with a similar amount of money. If the Nationals didn't sign Strasburg it would be a disaster for them. The Nats are lightyears away from being competitive but at least they now have 2 stars in the organization in Strasburg and Zimmerman (Zimmermann will have to wait), and maybe 3 if they get Bryce Harper (the Royals are looking really bad).
I have absolutely no clue what happens here on out with Strasburg. I read somewhere that Boras said he wanted Strasburg to get some time in the minor leagues. I find it funny that in negotiations Boras will say how he is major league ready and better than 75% of the starters right now, yet once the deal is done with he thinks Strasburg needs some time before he's ready. I don't blame Boras, he's just doing his job and doing it well, but it's quite funny. If the Nationals think he's ready I don't see why he'd need to waste much time in the minors, but if they don't think he's ready it'd be a horrible move to bring him up just to sell tickets. I don't think the Nats would do that, but you can't really give that organization the benefit of the doubt.
-Speaking of the Royals (a little late since there is a paragraph in between my mentioning them) they recently made a questionable move demoting Alex Gordon to AAA. You can find a better analysis of the move over here, so no need for me to labor on it, but it's very odd that you'd send one of your most promising players down to the minors when the one thing he really needs is experience at the major league level.
-Disgruntled released veteren pitcher John Smoltz seems to be on his way to the Cardinals. If there is a formula for success for a pitcher, leaving the AL East and working with Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan has to be among the best. He'll likely be given a chance to be the Cardinals 5th starter and if that doesn't work he'll move to the bullpen. Just like the Red Sox acquisition of Smoltz and the Phillies signing of Pedro, these moves are good so long as you don't keep starting an ineffective pitcher. If a random AAA pitcher comes up on the Phillies and pitches poorly for one start, let alone two or three he gets sent back down. If Pedro or Smoltz pitches poorly they should be treated the same. The "if they did it before they can do it again" mantra is useless when before they threw 96 and now they touch 90.
-One other move of note was the Rangers pickup of Pudge. Their pre-season catcher depth has been nonexistent, Salty stinks (and is hurt), Teagarden can't hit, and Max Ramirez can't hit any more (in the minors). So, picking up Pudge (or any backup catcher for that matter) is a smart move and a move a competing team should make. I have to say though that I didn't really think the Rangers had a shot to win the wild card over the Red Sox, but each game that goes by their chances increase. Now it wouldn't shock me if they did sneak into the playoffs and went into 2010 with a ton of hype only to miss the playoffs. That's the trend in sports with surprise young teams. They do well partially because of some luck and the next year they are expected to get better when even repeating their performance would be a nice feat. The Rangers are going to be very good in the long term and they have surprised us this year short term, but don't start penciling them in for the AL West crown next year just yet. Although, that Feliz kid is insane.
UPDATE: For whatever reason I didn't realize that the Rangers gave up two young kids for Pudge. That's a lot to offer for a backup catcher. Sure, maybe it's nice seeing him back in his old uni, but are Mariners fans really loving watching Griffey Jr. hit .223 at DH? It's not a bad move in general to get a backup catcher when you need a backup catcher, but giving up what the Rangers did is silly. The Rangers GM wasn't around during Pudge's years, I wonder if this is an ownership move.
The Nationals signed Stephen Strasburg as you all might have heard. Instead of the $50m Boras had mentioned during the draft, Strasburg signed for a totally reasonable although record breaking 4 year $15.1m contract. Everyone said that the Nationals and Strasburg had a lot to lose by not doing this deal, and they did, but it wasn't even in my mind. Leaving $15m on the table to sit out a year and possibly getting hurt or lose effectiveness is a silly idea but I bet if he did sit out he'd end up with a similar amount of money. If the Nationals didn't sign Strasburg it would be a disaster for them. The Nats are lightyears away from being competitive but at least they now have 2 stars in the organization in Strasburg and Zimmerman (Zimmermann will have to wait), and maybe 3 if they get Bryce Harper (the Royals are looking really bad).
I have absolutely no clue what happens here on out with Strasburg. I read somewhere that Boras said he wanted Strasburg to get some time in the minor leagues. I find it funny that in negotiations Boras will say how he is major league ready and better than 75% of the starters right now, yet once the deal is done with he thinks Strasburg needs some time before he's ready. I don't blame Boras, he's just doing his job and doing it well, but it's quite funny. If the Nationals think he's ready I don't see why he'd need to waste much time in the minors, but if they don't think he's ready it'd be a horrible move to bring him up just to sell tickets. I don't think the Nats would do that, but you can't really give that organization the benefit of the doubt.
-Speaking of the Royals (a little late since there is a paragraph in between my mentioning them) they recently made a questionable move demoting Alex Gordon to AAA. You can find a better analysis of the move over here, so no need for me to labor on it, but it's very odd that you'd send one of your most promising players down to the minors when the one thing he really needs is experience at the major league level.
-Disgruntled released veteren pitcher John Smoltz seems to be on his way to the Cardinals. If there is a formula for success for a pitcher, leaving the AL East and working with Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan has to be among the best. He'll likely be given a chance to be the Cardinals 5th starter and if that doesn't work he'll move to the bullpen. Just like the Red Sox acquisition of Smoltz and the Phillies signing of Pedro, these moves are good so long as you don't keep starting an ineffective pitcher. If a random AAA pitcher comes up on the Phillies and pitches poorly for one start, let alone two or three he gets sent back down. If Pedro or Smoltz pitches poorly they should be treated the same. The "if they did it before they can do it again" mantra is useless when before they threw 96 and now they touch 90.
-One other move of note was the Rangers pickup of Pudge. Their pre-season catcher depth has been nonexistent, Salty stinks (and is hurt), Teagarden can't hit, and Max Ramirez can't hit any more (in the minors). So, picking up Pudge (or any backup catcher for that matter) is a smart move and a move a competing team should make. I have to say though that I didn't really think the Rangers had a shot to win the wild card over the Red Sox, but each game that goes by their chances increase. Now it wouldn't shock me if they did sneak into the playoffs and went into 2010 with a ton of hype only to miss the playoffs. That's the trend in sports with surprise young teams. They do well partially because of some luck and the next year they are expected to get better when even repeating their performance would be a nice feat. The Rangers are going to be very good in the long term and they have surprised us this year short term, but don't start penciling them in for the AL West crown next year just yet. Although, that Feliz kid is insane.
UPDATE: For whatever reason I didn't realize that the Rangers gave up two young kids for Pudge. That's a lot to offer for a backup catcher. Sure, maybe it's nice seeing him back in his old uni, but are Mariners fans really loving watching Griffey Jr. hit .223 at DH? It's not a bad move in general to get a backup catcher when you need a backup catcher, but giving up what the Rangers did is silly. The Rangers GM wasn't around during Pudge's years, I wonder if this is an ownership move.
Monday, August 17, 2009
Everyone Is Talking About It, Why Not Me?
This Mark Teixeira vs. Joe Mauer for AL MVP has really sparked quite a stir over the internet. Not a bad stir either, nobody is getting personal or anything and its cool to have these conversations over the old internets. What I add or try to add to this conversation likely won't get commented on or critiqued by someone else, but that doesn't mean I shouldn't give my take.
So, Mauer vs. Teix who should win? The easy answer is obviously Mauer, but I'll talk about it anyways.
Mark Teixeira is arguably the best player on the best team in baseball. He has an impressive .280/.382/.557 line. If you can add you will see his OPS is a great .939 so unsurprisingly his wOBA is great at an even .400. His defense is normally well above average but according to UZR it's essentially just average. He's first in the AL in XBH, third in RBI, 2nd in HR, 5th in OPS. He's having an MVP-like season, nobody would argue that.
Joe Mauer on the other hand is arguably the best player in the league on an average team. His line is an incredible .377/.444/.626. His wOBA is .452. He plays catcher, the most demanding position on the diamond and by all accounts he's very good at it. He leads the league in batting average, OBP, and slugging which translates to league leading OPS and wOBA...at catcher.
Fangraphs' Wins Above Replacement helps tell you all that a player does with one easy number to look at. Joe Mauer leads the AL in WAR with 5.9, Mark Teixeira is 13th with 3.8. WAR uses UZR to factor defense so if you want to give Teixeira more credit for his defense (because UZR says he's been about average while everyone still raves it's been remarkable) he'd still be behind Mauer by a considerable amount. Also, WAR doesn't give catchers credit for their catching ability. It gives Mauer bonus points for playing catcher and takes away from Teixeira for playing first, but it doesn't distinguish catchers from other catchers, and Mauer is a great catcher. Lastly, WAR is not a rate statistic so Mauer missed the first month of the season and still leads the league, unbelievable. Certainly you may have some issues with WAR as a way of judging players, but Mauer's lead is very very significant. Maybe if he was at 5.9 and Teix 5.6 you can call it a wash, but it's not.
I say all this to point out that Mauer has clearly been better this year. MVP is not awarded to the best overall player, but the point so far has been to show Mauer has been the better overall player. There is even more stuff to show like Teixeira's home/road splits: OPS of 1.031 home and .848 away. Mauer is 1.166 home and .983 away. And as we all know, New Yankee Stadium is a hitter's paradise, especially for someone who often bats lefty.
Now MVP isn't about who's the best it's about who's the most valuable, a very tricky question. This is a stupid exercise but let's say Mauer and Teixeira switched teams. The Yankees would move Posada to 1b and Mauer at catcher the Twins would have to find a replacement catcher and put Teixeira at 1b and Morneau at DH. I dunno about you but I'd say the Yankees are still in first place while the Twins would love to be just 5 games under .500. You can't underestimate position and it's not like we are using it to justify Mauer's inferior stats, he already has better stats than Teixeira, he just isn't on the better team.
When people vote on MVP they always resort to the same thing, best player on best team. But is Mark Teixeira even the Yankees best player? Going back to WAR, Mark Teixeira as we know checks in at 3.8, but Derek Jeter is at 5.0. Derek Jeter isn't the hitter that Teixeira is, but he plays SS and has been quite good at it this year. So it's even a debate as to if Mark Teixeira is the most valuable player on his own team.
But, he has those homers and RBI and voters love those two somewhat outdated statistics. Joe Mauer bats behind Denard Span and Orlando Cabrera. Mark Teixeira bats behind Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon. It should be no surprise then that Teixeira has more RBI especially considering he didn't miss a month of the season. But wait, he has 15 more RBI. That's right just 15 more than Mauer with over 100 more plate appearances. And what about those homers! Well Teixeira does have more (30 to 22) but he's slugging worse as I said earlier, and slugging is significantly more important than homerun totals. On base is more important than slugging and Mauer's got him owned there too.
Essentially the team around Mauer is hurting him while the team around Teixeira helps him, yet Teixeira is the one getting more of the credit for helping out his team the most. The Twins are out of playoff contention and some people think that is grounds for being left out of the MVP race, but should an injury to Kevin Slowey and a horribly ineffective Liriano be the reason why Mauer is shafted the MVP? If you replace Teixeira with any ok 1b the Yankees will be fine, and likely be leading the division by a couple of games. If you replace Mauer with any ok catcher, well the Twins would really suck. Being the Most Valuable Player, doesn't mean you have to be on a great team, it just means you have to be the most valuable, and this year in the American League nobody has been as valuable or as good as Joe Mauer.
Mauer is having a historic season, literally one for the ages. When our kids are looking back at some old stats on a futuristic BaseballReference.com they will ask us about Joe Mauer's 2009 season. None of our kids are going to ask about how good Mark Teixeira's season was. Unless of course it's in reference to someone stealing the MVP from Joe Mauer for a third time, and I sure hope my kid doesn't have to ask about that.
So, Mauer vs. Teix who should win? The easy answer is obviously Mauer, but I'll talk about it anyways.
Mark Teixeira is arguably the best player on the best team in baseball. He has an impressive .280/.382/.557 line. If you can add you will see his OPS is a great .939 so unsurprisingly his wOBA is great at an even .400. His defense is normally well above average but according to UZR it's essentially just average. He's first in the AL in XBH, third in RBI, 2nd in HR, 5th in OPS. He's having an MVP-like season, nobody would argue that.
Joe Mauer on the other hand is arguably the best player in the league on an average team. His line is an incredible .377/.444/.626. His wOBA is .452. He plays catcher, the most demanding position on the diamond and by all accounts he's very good at it. He leads the league in batting average, OBP, and slugging which translates to league leading OPS and wOBA...at catcher.
Fangraphs' Wins Above Replacement helps tell you all that a player does with one easy number to look at. Joe Mauer leads the AL in WAR with 5.9, Mark Teixeira is 13th with 3.8. WAR uses UZR to factor defense so if you want to give Teixeira more credit for his defense (because UZR says he's been about average while everyone still raves it's been remarkable) he'd still be behind Mauer by a considerable amount. Also, WAR doesn't give catchers credit for their catching ability. It gives Mauer bonus points for playing catcher and takes away from Teixeira for playing first, but it doesn't distinguish catchers from other catchers, and Mauer is a great catcher. Lastly, WAR is not a rate statistic so Mauer missed the first month of the season and still leads the league, unbelievable. Certainly you may have some issues with WAR as a way of judging players, but Mauer's lead is very very significant. Maybe if he was at 5.9 and Teix 5.6 you can call it a wash, but it's not.
I say all this to point out that Mauer has clearly been better this year. MVP is not awarded to the best overall player, but the point so far has been to show Mauer has been the better overall player. There is even more stuff to show like Teixeira's home/road splits: OPS of 1.031 home and .848 away. Mauer is 1.166 home and .983 away. And as we all know, New Yankee Stadium is a hitter's paradise, especially for someone who often bats lefty.
Now MVP isn't about who's the best it's about who's the most valuable, a very tricky question. This is a stupid exercise but let's say Mauer and Teixeira switched teams. The Yankees would move Posada to 1b and Mauer at catcher the Twins would have to find a replacement catcher and put Teixeira at 1b and Morneau at DH. I dunno about you but I'd say the Yankees are still in first place while the Twins would love to be just 5 games under .500. You can't underestimate position and it's not like we are using it to justify Mauer's inferior stats, he already has better stats than Teixeira, he just isn't on the better team.
When people vote on MVP they always resort to the same thing, best player on best team. But is Mark Teixeira even the Yankees best player? Going back to WAR, Mark Teixeira as we know checks in at 3.8, but Derek Jeter is at 5.0. Derek Jeter isn't the hitter that Teixeira is, but he plays SS and has been quite good at it this year. So it's even a debate as to if Mark Teixeira is the most valuable player on his own team.
But, he has those homers and RBI and voters love those two somewhat outdated statistics. Joe Mauer bats behind Denard Span and Orlando Cabrera. Mark Teixeira bats behind Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon. It should be no surprise then that Teixeira has more RBI especially considering he didn't miss a month of the season. But wait, he has 15 more RBI. That's right just 15 more than Mauer with over 100 more plate appearances. And what about those homers! Well Teixeira does have more (30 to 22) but he's slugging worse as I said earlier, and slugging is significantly more important than homerun totals. On base is more important than slugging and Mauer's got him owned there too.
Essentially the team around Mauer is hurting him while the team around Teixeira helps him, yet Teixeira is the one getting more of the credit for helping out his team the most. The Twins are out of playoff contention and some people think that is grounds for being left out of the MVP race, but should an injury to Kevin Slowey and a horribly ineffective Liriano be the reason why Mauer is shafted the MVP? If you replace Teixeira with any ok 1b the Yankees will be fine, and likely be leading the division by a couple of games. If you replace Mauer with any ok catcher, well the Twins would really suck. Being the Most Valuable Player, doesn't mean you have to be on a great team, it just means you have to be the most valuable, and this year in the American League nobody has been as valuable or as good as Joe Mauer.
Mauer is having a historic season, literally one for the ages. When our kids are looking back at some old stats on a futuristic BaseballReference.com they will ask us about Joe Mauer's 2009 season. None of our kids are going to ask about how good Mark Teixeira's season was. Unless of course it's in reference to someone stealing the MVP from Joe Mauer for a third time, and I sure hope my kid doesn't have to ask about that.
Moneyball Report
Team Leaders in OBP: Yankees (.357), Angels (.354), Dodgers (.351), Rays/Red Sox(.348)
Bottom Feeders in OBP: Giants (.308), Reds (.310), Royals (.311), Mariners (.317), Padres (.319) ...just for show the A's have the 8th worst at (.323)
The recent Yankees always had great OBP and mashed during the regular season only to lose to the scrappy Angels. Now the Angels mash and have a great team OBP. I call this the curse of the Bobby Abreu. He'll make the lineup better but the team won't accomplish anything. Or at least that's what I hope happens in the playoffs this year. On the other side of OBP, the Reds offense has really fallen. They used to rip it with Dunn and that ball park, now they are one of the worst offenses in the league. They have more pitching talent than ever butDusty Baker has already ruined Edinson Volquez and probably Aaron Harang, and Cueto is a ruined arm in waiting. When Baker is fired next year I'm not sure if he'll ever be a head coach again and that's a good thing.
Team Leaders in UZR: Giants (53.2), Mariners (52.1), Rays (50.6), Pirates (32.8), Tigers (32.6) ...just for show A's are 11th (11.0)
Bottom Feeders in UZR: Royals (-40.5) Mets (-36.4), Twins (-28.6), Orioles (-26.5), Indians (-23.0)
The Royals are a horrible team. They have bad pitching, hitting, and fielding. They've always had bad fielding, but it's gotten a lot worse since two weeks ago. I wonder why? Oh maybe it's because of their new SS Yuniesky Betancourt and his -29.1 UZR/150. What a horrible move.
Team FIP Leaders: Braves (3.69), Giants (3.74), Dodgers (3.88), Rockies (3.94) Cardinals (3.95),
Bottom FIPers: Brewers (4.94), Orioles (4.86), Nationals (4.80) Reds (4.76), Indians (4.69)
The Giants get all the press for their pitching when the Braves is at least as good. The Braves don't have a Tim Lincecum but Vazquez, Jurrjens, Lowe, and Hanson are all very good. The Red Sox have fallen recently and that could be explained by their pitching. Two weeks ago their team FIP was 3.79 and this week it's almost 4. Their heralded pitching depth has almost turned into a weakness recently. Buchholz has been unimpressive, Penny
The Orioles may seem like a typical all hit no pitching team, but just have some patience they will field a great rotation maybe as soon as next year. Brad Bergesen is an above average starter, top prospect pitchers Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman have dominated the minors this year and are showing some success in the majors so far, and Jake Arrieta is coming soon as well. Jeremy Guthrie is also still there for a cheap solid back end guy and Koji Uehara has showed some nice promise when he's been healthy. The upside is having 6 above average starters with two of them being of the ace variety.
People thought that the Rays would be good if they finally got pitching and last year they finally did on their way to the World Series. The Orioles won't go to the World Series or even win half of their games next year, but pitching is on the way and it won't be long until the AL East has 4 teams chasing the penant.
Team Leaders in ExpWin%: Dodgers (.606), Yankees (.592) Red Sox (.573), Rockies (.572) Phillies (.569).
I've been completely wrong on this. The Yankees were playing above their expected record causing me to say they may slip and all they've done is get better. I also kept saying the Rays would make a run and all they've done is slip more. I also thought the division race would be exciting and the Yankees have a chance to essentially lock it up next week. I will make one prediction that I think will be correct using the ExpWin% though. It's not a big one at all but I say the Rockies win the wild card. They "should" have 66 wins and have 64 while the Giants "should" have 62 wins and have 63. Although that still makes the race close, it shouldn't be as close as it is, the Rockies are a better team.
Moneyball Moves: Nothing really exciting recently with trades. Transaction wise the only big thing right now are the Stephen Strasburg negotiations. They have until 12:00 Tuesday (tomorrow) to iron this out. Boras and Strasburg hold all the cards, if they fail to reach an agreement Strasburg can re-enter the draft next year and likely get a similar record breaking amount, not really a horrible thing. If the Nationals fail to sign Strasburg that would make it two yeras in a row where they couldn't sign their top draft pick. That's just pathetic for everyone involved and shows why the Nats are the worst team in the league with no real promise in sight.
Bottom Feeders in OBP: Giants (.308), Reds (.310), Royals (.311), Mariners (.317), Padres (.319) ...just for show the A's have the 8th worst at (.323)
The recent Yankees always had great OBP and mashed during the regular season only to lose to the scrappy Angels. Now the Angels mash and have a great team OBP. I call this the curse of the Bobby Abreu. He'll make the lineup better but the team won't accomplish anything. Or at least that's what I hope happens in the playoffs this year. On the other side of OBP, the Reds offense has really fallen. They used to rip it with Dunn and that ball park, now they are one of the worst offenses in the league. They have more pitching talent than ever butDusty Baker has already ruined Edinson Volquez and probably Aaron Harang, and Cueto is a ruined arm in waiting. When Baker is fired next year I'm not sure if he'll ever be a head coach again and that's a good thing.
Team Leaders in UZR: Giants (53.2), Mariners (52.1), Rays (50.6), Pirates (32.8), Tigers (32.6) ...just for show A's are 11th (11.0)
Bottom Feeders in UZR: Royals (-40.5) Mets (-36.4), Twins (-28.6), Orioles (-26.5), Indians (-23.0)
The Royals are a horrible team. They have bad pitching, hitting, and fielding. They've always had bad fielding, but it's gotten a lot worse since two weeks ago. I wonder why? Oh maybe it's because of their new SS Yuniesky Betancourt and his -29.1 UZR/150. What a horrible move.
Team FIP Leaders: Braves (3.69), Giants (3.74), Dodgers (3.88), Rockies (3.94) Cardinals (3.95),
Bottom FIPers: Brewers (4.94), Orioles (4.86), Nationals (4.80) Reds (4.76), Indians (4.69)
The Giants get all the press for their pitching when the Braves is at least as good. The Braves don't have a Tim Lincecum but Vazquez, Jurrjens, Lowe, and Hanson are all very good. The Red Sox have fallen recently and that could be explained by their pitching. Two weeks ago their team FIP was 3.79 and this week it's almost 4. Their heralded pitching depth has almost turned into a weakness recently. Buchholz has been unimpressive, Penny
The Orioles may seem like a typical all hit no pitching team, but just have some patience they will field a great rotation maybe as soon as next year. Brad Bergesen is an above average starter, top prospect pitchers Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman have dominated the minors this year and are showing some success in the majors so far, and Jake Arrieta is coming soon as well. Jeremy Guthrie is also still there for a cheap solid back end guy and Koji Uehara has showed some nice promise when he's been healthy. The upside is having 6 above average starters with two of them being of the ace variety.
People thought that the Rays would be good if they finally got pitching and last year they finally did on their way to the World Series. The Orioles won't go to the World Series or even win half of their games next year, but pitching is on the way and it won't be long until the AL East has 4 teams chasing the penant.
Team Leaders in ExpWin%: Dodgers (.606), Yankees (.592) Red Sox (.573), Rockies (.572) Phillies (.569).
I've been completely wrong on this. The Yankees were playing above their expected record causing me to say they may slip and all they've done is get better. I also kept saying the Rays would make a run and all they've done is slip more. I also thought the division race would be exciting and the Yankees have a chance to essentially lock it up next week. I will make one prediction that I think will be correct using the ExpWin% though. It's not a big one at all but I say the Rockies win the wild card. They "should" have 66 wins and have 64 while the Giants "should" have 62 wins and have 63. Although that still makes the race close, it shouldn't be as close as it is, the Rockies are a better team.
Moneyball Moves: Nothing really exciting recently with trades. Transaction wise the only big thing right now are the Stephen Strasburg negotiations. They have until 12:00 Tuesday (tomorrow) to iron this out. Boras and Strasburg hold all the cards, if they fail to reach an agreement Strasburg can re-enter the draft next year and likely get a similar record breaking amount, not really a horrible thing. If the Nationals fail to sign Strasburg that would make it two yeras in a row where they couldn't sign their top draft pick. That's just pathetic for everyone involved and shows why the Nats are the worst team in the league with no real promise in sight.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
J.J. Hardy Sent Down, Escobar Up
As the headline says, the Brewers called up SS prospect Alcides Escobar and sent J.J. Hardy to AAA. Escobar has a fine bat for a SS (.298/.353/.409 in AAA this year), he's fast (42 sb), and is supposed to be a plus defender. He seemingly has all the tools to one of the better SS in the league. J.J. Hardy is supposed to have the tools to be the same with his excellent defense and great power at Ss. However, J.J. Hardy has been struggling all year with a .229/.300/.367 line. His defense is still very good (10.4 UZR/150) for him to be a usable player even with that kind of bat, but clearly something isn't working right now. Maybe sending him to the minors will get his head right for next year, or maybe it'll increase his trade value for next year?
If the Brewers want Hardy to increase his value for a trade by producing in the minors over the final month, they are kind of taking a big risk. If Hardy continues to struggle in AAA that would only decrease his value in a trade further. Either way, Hardy is a player any team without a great SS should be looking to acquire next year. Even with his horrible batting line, his defense has been good enough this year to give him 1.5 WAR this year. In this worst case scenario he still gives you positive production at SS, and if his bat turns around he's one of the top SS in the league.
Before this season and before the Derek Jeter Renaissance with his bat and glove, I thought Hardy would be a guy the Yankees could maybe get for cheap from the Brewers. But with Jeter's improvements it's not realistic for the Yankees to make him a utility player with Hardy as the starting SS, so another team is going to have to trade for him. What teams could be interested in a SS for next year?
Red Sox: Easy choice here, they have any kind of prospect that would be needed to get Hardy. Hardy won't even demand that much, Michael Bowden for Hardy could even get it done. Theo Epstein is too smart to let Nick Green be the Sox starting SS next year, and he's too smart to let Hardy go to someone else for nothing.
I'm going to take a risk here and not even hedge my bets, I'll say J.J. Hardy gets traded to the Red Sox this offseason. It just makes too much sense on both sides not to get done. The Sox obviously hold their prospects highly, but trading for Hardy won't require them shelling out 3-4 guys like it would for Halladay, it should only require 1 or 2 neither being top top guys.
If the Brewers want Hardy to increase his value for a trade by producing in the minors over the final month, they are kind of taking a big risk. If Hardy continues to struggle in AAA that would only decrease his value in a trade further. Either way, Hardy is a player any team without a great SS should be looking to acquire next year. Even with his horrible batting line, his defense has been good enough this year to give him 1.5 WAR this year. In this worst case scenario he still gives you positive production at SS, and if his bat turns around he's one of the top SS in the league.
Before this season and before the Derek Jeter Renaissance with his bat and glove, I thought Hardy would be a guy the Yankees could maybe get for cheap from the Brewers. But with Jeter's improvements it's not realistic for the Yankees to make him a utility player with Hardy as the starting SS, so another team is going to have to trade for him. What teams could be interested in a SS for next year?
Red Sox: Easy choice here, they have any kind of prospect that would be needed to get Hardy. Hardy won't even demand that much, Michael Bowden for Hardy could even get it done. Theo Epstein is too smart to let Nick Green be the Sox starting SS next year, and he's too smart to let Hardy go to someone else for nothing.
I'm going to take a risk here and not even hedge my bets, I'll say J.J. Hardy gets traded to the Red Sox this offseason. It just makes too much sense on both sides not to get done. The Sox obviously hold their prospects highly, but trading for Hardy won't require them shelling out 3-4 guys like it would for Halladay, it should only require 1 or 2 neither being top top guys.
State of the Yankees, Issue 3
Once again, this State of the Yankees is brought to you by fellow blogger Jeff Winston. You can find his other work on the world of sports here.
Thursday already? Yep, so that means another edition of “State of the Yankees.” Where we last left our heroes in pinstripes, they were struggling in Chicago, and preparing for a matchup against their hated rivals in Boston; looking for that first win of the year against them. Trying to look at the series last week realistically, I was hoping that the Yankees would be able to have the Red Sox leave town with a split in the series. Well, that’s not exactly how it went…
Instead, the Yankees experienced their most successful group of 4 games against their arch enemies since the Boston Massacre of 2006. Entering the series 2 ½ games up on the Red Sox in the division standings, Boston headed back home on Sunday with a 6 ½ game deficit, and a lot more problems than they entered the series with. John Smoltz has since been designated for assignment following his atrocious start against the Yankees on Thursday. Following Thursday night’s disaster for Boston, they then went the next 30 innings without scoring a run; which meant no run support despite good starts out of their front two Josh Beckett and Jon Lester. The only time during the entire series that the Yankees even felt the need to sweat was following a 2-run home run off the bat of Victor Martinez, whose results were quickly erased the following inning by back to back home runs from Damon and Teixeira.
So where do the Yankees stand? Entering the series 0-8 against the Red Sox, they are now only 4-8, but there is little doubt as to who the better team of the two is at this point. The Yankees did it all this series. They won a slugfest (Thursday). They won a nail biting 15 inning 2-0 marathon. And their front 3 starters showed everyone over in Kenmore Square who the better front end of the rotation is. Let’s take another look at the stat lines from Burnett, Sabathia and Pettitte from the past weekend:
Burnett: 7.2 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 6 BB, 6 K’s
Sabathia: 7.2 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 K’s
Pettitte: 7.0 IP, 5 hits, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K’s
Even more impressive is the outstanding work from the Yankees bullpen during the series.
Yankees bullpen: 14.2 IP, 11 hits, 4 ER, 6 BB, 17 k’s
Noticeably one of their weaknesses during the first 8 games against Boston this year, their ability to limit Boston to only 4 runs during 14.2 innings pitched is just the cover story of a vastly improved bullpen.
The Yankees seem to be headed in the right direction, and have managed to take one of the monkeys off their back by beating a playoff worthy team, no less the Red Sox, 4 games in a row. Amazing work from the boys in pinstripes this past weekend, and hopefully there will be more happy news to report in next week’s edition.
Yankees Player of the Week: I really want to give this award to David Robertson, who managed a .2IP, 3K stat line during an appearance against Boston this weekend, but it would be stealing from the weekend as a whole to award Robertson for managing 3 K’s while only pitching 2/3 of an inning. Instead, this highly esteemed award to Alex Rodriguez, who in the series against Boston hit two very key home runs; one to win the game Friday night off highly touted Red Sox prospect Junichi Tazawa, and then breaking the scoreless tie Sunday night with a solo shot off of Jon Lester. Both would have stood as game winners if not for Victor Martinez’s home run Sunday night, but Alex is starting to show the fans that he can in fact come up with the big hit when necessary.
Non-Yankees Fun Fact of the Week: Blue Jays General Manager JP Riccardi refused to trade face-of-the-franchise all star pitcher Roy Halladay because he could not get enough trade bait in return, but then responded to the fans in Toronto by trading away star outfielder Alex Rios for… NOTHING. I call this waiver claim a steal for White Sox GM Kenny Williams, and an Epic Fail on the part of JP Riccardi.
Well, that wraps up this edition of “State of the Yankees.” Tune in next week, where this author will hopefully be able to report that the train of success for the Bronx Bombers continues to roll. Until then, Let’s Go Yankees!
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Frenchie or Church?
When the Mets traded Ryan Church for Jeff Francoeur most of the SABR-friendly world thought it was a bad trade, but is it now paying off?
Over at Amazin' Avenue, they criticize a Kevin Burkhardt Tweet about Francouer's early success with the mets.:
Over at Amazin' Avenue, they criticize a Kevin Burkhardt Tweet about Francouer's early success with the mets.:
A bright spot: the Francoeur for Church swap has been an early steal for the Mets. He has been terrific
If we put aside our general contention that Church is overall a better player than Francoeur (the statistical numbers bear this out), here are the two players' slash lines with their new teams:
Francoeur: .298/.327/.442
Church: .278/.400/.444If we blatantly disregard everything else, Francoeur does lead in homeruns 5-2, which I guess = early steal.
He's not being totally fair, Frenchie has 20 RBI while Church only has 10! If you think I'm being sarcastic you are totally right. Frenchie has twice as many RBI, more HRs, and a better average, but it's on the heels of having twice as many plate appearances. Any metric you want to use besides batting average, home runs, or RBI will tell you Church has been better, significantly better, but alas those are still the go-to stats for most peeps.
Recently I was looking at a friend's fantasy team who had Jeff Francouer. I wasn't really following how Frenchie has been on the lowly Mets, so I assumed the worst. I asked him why he still had Frenchie on his team and he said he's doing really well. Fantasy wise, you check the stats and .300 with 5 homers and 20 RBI in 108 ABs is fine production for a 4th or 5th OF. But that's why it's fantasy, not real life. Francouer may have more homers than Church since the trade, but they are slugging the same, he may also have a better average but he's getting on base less often. One month isn't enough time to appropriately judge this trade but historically Church has been the better player and he's been the better player since the trade too. So, it's safe to make an early conclusion on this trade and we were right from the beginning, it has been a poor move by the Mets, not an early steal.
In other related news, should I try tweeting?
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Trading Tuesday
I was away this weekend so I hope you didn't mind missing Stat Saturday, Lazy Sunday, and Moneyball Monday. But I'm back for Trading Tuesday!
Recently the Toronto Blue Jays traded Alex Rios to the Chicago White Sox for well hardly anything, Alex Rios was picked up off Waivers by the White Sox. The Jays GM, JP Riccardi decided to keep his best pitcher (Halladay) because he didn't get a good enough of a deal, but that his best hitter could just be taken by anybody.
Salary dumps make sense when you release Jason Giambi, they don't make too much sense when you release Alex Rios. Alex Rios has a lot left on his contract, about $60m until 2014, so he stands to make around $12m a year for the next 5 years. He's having a sub-par this year for sure, but does that mean you should literally give him away? Last year he was worth $24.6m according to Fangraphs WAR to Dollar conversions. In 2007 he was worth $18.9m, and 2006 he was worth $12.1, this year he has been worth $4.9 so far. Rios is essentially better than the $12m he's being paid except that this year he's simply having an off year, and it's not like he won't earn his contract for this year either as he's being paid $5.9m and he's given $4.9m in production.
I also failed to mention that Rios is only 28 and still in his prime. This would be a different story if Rios was 34 years old and was going to be paid handsomely until he was 40. At 28, a down year doesn't mean Rios is entering his decline phase, it just simply means a down year.
The White Sox on the other hand have been in the division race the entire year without an actual CF, and now they conceivably will play Rios there, a huge upgrade even if he doesn't do better than he has. Also, they don't even have to give up a player. Also, they have some old dudes coming off the books next year (Thome, Dye, Contreras) and in 2010 (Konerko, Pierzynski), so Rios' contract won't really hurt their payroll.
All in all it's an amazing move for the White Sox and a horrible one for the Blue Jays. You could make a case that Riccardi's time was done just after the Halladay negotiations, now it's hard to make a case for him to stay.
Recently the Toronto Blue Jays traded Alex Rios to the Chicago White Sox for well hardly anything, Alex Rios was picked up off Waivers by the White Sox. The Jays GM, JP Riccardi decided to keep his best pitcher (Halladay) because he didn't get a good enough of a deal, but that his best hitter could just be taken by anybody.
Salary dumps make sense when you release Jason Giambi, they don't make too much sense when you release Alex Rios. Alex Rios has a lot left on his contract, about $60m until 2014, so he stands to make around $12m a year for the next 5 years. He's having a sub-par this year for sure, but does that mean you should literally give him away? Last year he was worth $24.6m according to Fangraphs WAR to Dollar conversions. In 2007 he was worth $18.9m, and 2006 he was worth $12.1, this year he has been worth $4.9 so far. Rios is essentially better than the $12m he's being paid except that this year he's simply having an off year, and it's not like he won't earn his contract for this year either as he's being paid $5.9m and he's given $4.9m in production.
I also failed to mention that Rios is only 28 and still in his prime. This would be a different story if Rios was 34 years old and was going to be paid handsomely until he was 40. At 28, a down year doesn't mean Rios is entering his decline phase, it just simply means a down year.
The White Sox on the other hand have been in the division race the entire year without an actual CF, and now they conceivably will play Rios there, a huge upgrade even if he doesn't do better than he has. Also, they don't even have to give up a player. Also, they have some old dudes coming off the books next year (Thome, Dye, Contreras) and in 2010 (Konerko, Pierzynski), so Rios' contract won't really hurt their payroll.
All in all it's an amazing move for the White Sox and a horrible one for the Blue Jays. You could make a case that Riccardi's time was done just after the Halladay negotiations, now it's hard to make a case for him to stay.
Friday, August 7, 2009
Fantasy Friday
For some of you the trading deadline may have already passed, for others it's right around the corner. For those of you who still have some time to make a move, you know what to do. You can't hold out for the best possible deal when there is a week left to make a deal. At this point if you are getting categories that are going to help you, you have to make the move. In one year leagues it's tough to get ripped off for less than 2 months of production. Chances are if you need saves and are acquiring saves that it's a good deal for you, follow my drift?
There have been a lot of moves recently so let's see how some of them will factor fantasy wise.
Cliff Lee: The results of this trade have already paid off as Cliff Lee has pitched 16 innings in 2 starts, winning both of them only giving up 3 runs. Classic case of AL to NL, hop on board there is more to come.
Matt Holliday: He was starting to play better on Oakland before the trade, and he's carried that over to St. Louis. He was better than he showed on Oakland this year, and going back to the NL hitting behind Pujols will help prove that. I'd still buy him even after he's been on fire.
Victor Martinez: Classic case of moving from a shitty team to a great one. Not sure how you can say that will hurt V-Mart. The thing is how much will it help? He'll pick up a few more RBI here and there but it's not like moving to Fenway makes him a 330 30 home run guy, if someone thinks it does trade V-Mart and pickup 2 months of Miguel Montero.
Jake Peavy: Why trade for an injured Peavy that hasn't done anything outside of the NL when you can possibly get a healthy Halladay? Obviously Halladay costs more, but you'd rather pay more to get a sure thing something that Jake Peavy is not. I don't think Peavy to the Sox helps his value, but if someone thinks it does I'd pounce. If you are a good team in a keeper league looking to win a title, Jake Peavy is the perfect guy to trade to a bad team looking for keepers. Moving from the NL to AL is bad enough, moving from Petco to US Cellular is just horrible. Jake Peavy next year may seem like an ace in some teams minds, but there are 10-15 pitchers I'd prefer over him easily. Want me to name them off the top of my head? Johan Santana, Justin Verlander, Jon Lester, Dan Haren, Tim Lincecum, Josh Beckett, CC Sabathia, Felix Hernandez, Roy Halladay, Josh Johnson, Matt Cain, Adam Wainwright, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, Yovani Gallardo. That's 15 pitchers and I didn't even extend myself.
Jarrod Washburn: Anyone who expects Washburn to benefit from this trade is insane. Sell Sell Sell if you can, except we know you can't, who wants Jarrod Washburn? You are better off holding on to him, and if you find yourself spot starting him, at this point in the season just drop him you're team will be better off.
Guys I like going forward:
Rich Harden: Rich Harden seems to be back. You can't rely on wins for anyone really, so take your chances with Harden and enjoy his amazing K rate.
Mark Teixeira: Just a hunch, but it seems like he's heating up.
Dustin Pedroia: He's not worth a top pick, but at this point he may be underrated. It's sexy to say how overrated Pedroia is, and there is truth to that. But even his owner may have bought into that, so try to pry him away. In one year leagues you can't expect to gain many points in average, but if average is a very volatile category then Pedroia is a guy that can help. In keeper leagues Pedroia is still a top 5 2b, so planning for next year if you can pick him up on the cheap why not?
Guys I don't like:
This list is your typical players who have been lucky and will stop being lucky at some point.
Mark Reynolds won't steal this many bases going forward hurting his value (he also may bat .240), Raul Ibanez still isn't this good, Adam Jones is a great player but he shouldn't have the same HR/FB% as a Prince Fielder. There are a ton of guys like this, you know who they are. If they are on your team stop rationalizing to yourself that they are this good and too good to trade, they aren't. It must be tough trading a Jones or a Zobrist because they are good players but there isn't much time left, do what needs to be done.
There have been a lot of moves recently so let's see how some of them will factor fantasy wise.
Cliff Lee: The results of this trade have already paid off as Cliff Lee has pitched 16 innings in 2 starts, winning both of them only giving up 3 runs. Classic case of AL to NL, hop on board there is more to come.
Matt Holliday: He was starting to play better on Oakland before the trade, and he's carried that over to St. Louis. He was better than he showed on Oakland this year, and going back to the NL hitting behind Pujols will help prove that. I'd still buy him even after he's been on fire.
Victor Martinez: Classic case of moving from a shitty team to a great one. Not sure how you can say that will hurt V-Mart. The thing is how much will it help? He'll pick up a few more RBI here and there but it's not like moving to Fenway makes him a 330 30 home run guy, if someone thinks it does trade V-Mart and pickup 2 months of Miguel Montero.
Jake Peavy: Why trade for an injured Peavy that hasn't done anything outside of the NL when you can possibly get a healthy Halladay? Obviously Halladay costs more, but you'd rather pay more to get a sure thing something that Jake Peavy is not. I don't think Peavy to the Sox helps his value, but if someone thinks it does I'd pounce. If you are a good team in a keeper league looking to win a title, Jake Peavy is the perfect guy to trade to a bad team looking for keepers. Moving from the NL to AL is bad enough, moving from Petco to US Cellular is just horrible. Jake Peavy next year may seem like an ace in some teams minds, but there are 10-15 pitchers I'd prefer over him easily. Want me to name them off the top of my head? Johan Santana, Justin Verlander, Jon Lester, Dan Haren, Tim Lincecum, Josh Beckett, CC Sabathia, Felix Hernandez, Roy Halladay, Josh Johnson, Matt Cain, Adam Wainwright, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, Yovani Gallardo. That's 15 pitchers and I didn't even extend myself.
Jarrod Washburn: Anyone who expects Washburn to benefit from this trade is insane. Sell Sell Sell if you can, except we know you can't, who wants Jarrod Washburn? You are better off holding on to him, and if you find yourself spot starting him, at this point in the season just drop him you're team will be better off.
Guys I like going forward:
Rich Harden: Rich Harden seems to be back. You can't rely on wins for anyone really, so take your chances with Harden and enjoy his amazing K rate.
Mark Teixeira: Just a hunch, but it seems like he's heating up.
Dustin Pedroia: He's not worth a top pick, but at this point he may be underrated. It's sexy to say how overrated Pedroia is, and there is truth to that. But even his owner may have bought into that, so try to pry him away. In one year leagues you can't expect to gain many points in average, but if average is a very volatile category then Pedroia is a guy that can help. In keeper leagues Pedroia is still a top 5 2b, so planning for next year if you can pick him up on the cheap why not?
Guys I don't like:
This list is your typical players who have been lucky and will stop being lucky at some point.
Mark Reynolds won't steal this many bases going forward hurting his value (he also may bat .240), Raul Ibanez still isn't this good, Adam Jones is a great player but he shouldn't have the same HR/FB% as a Prince Fielder. There are a ton of guys like this, you know who they are. If they are on your team stop rationalizing to yourself that they are this good and too good to trade, they aren't. It must be tough trading a Jones or a Zobrist because they are good players but there isn't much time left, do what needs to be done.
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