Friday, August 21, 2009

Le Le Le Let Me Know Your Fantasyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy Friday

This blog's main focus isn't fantasy baseball, so when I post predictions I'm kind of squeezing myself, if I'm wrong it looks bad since I haven't made many predicions. Luckily though I've been pretty good so far, not great but pretty good. On August 7th I said to buy Cliff Lee, Matt Holliday and Rich Harden and I said to sell Washburn and Jake Peavy. I'm not here to toot my own horn (I've said to sell Joe Mauer Mark Reynolds and others in other posts this year) but I'm here just to say that maaaaaaybe what I say carries the tiniest bit of weight.

Since the trade deadline has passed in real life and most likely in fantasy, there isn't much you can do to help your team. Obviously your waiver wire spot is useless, use it on anyone that is even the slightest upgrade. Pay attention to players that are dropped and any September callups to catch lightening in a bottle. Beyond that you basically gotta pray your ace doesn't fall on his face in September or that the 2nd place team doesn't have a guy knock 12 homers in the final month.

With all that said let's turn our heads towards next year with my first preliminary top 10 for '10:
  1. Albert Pujols: Pujols is a lock for .330 40 120 every year with great runs and a few SB thrown in. Hanley may put together a .350 30/30 year but it's not likely and you gotta go with the consistency for number one.
  2. That makes Hanley Ramirez the obvious #2 choice. I don't think he'll be an auto 30 sb threat in the upcoming year(s), or necessarily be a lock for 30 homers and he shouldn't be batting .350+ right now (.400 BABIP) but who else would you take here?
  3. Maybe Chase Utley? There is a case to be made except 2b aren't so shallow with guys like Zobrist, Hill, Cano, Scutaro, Asdrubal and others having nice years. Utley puts up power/speed numbers like an OF but qualified at 2b. .300 30 100 100 15 in the bank, tough to beat.
  4. Ryan Braun: He doesn't have the 30 SB potential that some top players have but he's basically a lock for around 40 homers, and there aren't many other players that can do that...with 15 steals, 300 average, and a shitton of Runs/RBI thrown in.
  5. Matt Kemp: [Madden Voice] Now here's a guy [/Madden Voice] who does have the 30 SB potential. He has realistic 30/30 potential but the good thing is that he doesn't have to get there to merit this ranking.
  6. Tim Lincecum: I probably wouldn't draft him before the guys below him, but each year he'll probably rank higher than them and the guys above. He's the best pitcher in fantasy hands down. 15+ wins, 2.5 ERA 260 K's, whip around 1.1. Some pitchers may get one or two of those, none get all 4.
  7. Carl Crawford: Huge SB threats like to be compared to other huge SB threats. Why draft Crawford if I can get Bourn 10 rounds later? Crawford is way more than just a steal threat however, he'll bat .300 and hit 15 homers, things Bourn and Ellsbury (or at least their owners) would dream about. He's essentially a healthy Reyes at OF which places him in the bottom half of the top 10 not the upper half.
  8. David Wright: If we assume he is a legit 30 SB threat then you have to put him here. I'd probably rather wait and get another 3b cause 8 homers is kind of scary, but he'll do better than that next year (career 14.1% HR/FB, 6.8% this year). Plus Reyes and Beltran will actually be playing next year.
  9. Miguel Cabrera: Maybe I'm biased because I just traded for him in a keeper league but this kid's legit. He lead the AL in HR last year and this year he's batting .335, I have a feeling next year it all somewhat comes together. He's not having the greatest year this year because his RBI are low, but he's a world class hitter who has never had a bad year, and that's something you want in your top pick.
  10. This one is pretty tough, there are several guys around here who are pretty much similar. They are former top picks that have question marks, and current breakouts who may or may not be legit. Instead of choosing just one I'll list 'em here:
  • Jose Reyes: It's hard relying on a guy who relies on steals who has leg problems, but if everything is OK he could be the best player in fantasy.
  • Joe Mauer: If you think his "regression" will still mean he's .340 30 homers then you will be disappointed. He's having one of the best seasons ever for a catcher in real life and fantasy, but I wouldn't count on anything close to a repeat next year. With that said, the catcher position is at a real low. Doumit and Martin have sucked making Mauer more valuable, so position wise he still could be worth the pick.
  • Mark Reynolds: The cardinal rule in fantasy is never pay for a career year. If for some reason Reynolds has gotten so good where this is his actual talent level then he'd be a top 5 player easy. He's a player I'd like to have on my team but not someone I'd want to rely on to build my team around.
  • Mark Teixeira: He doesn't have the potential of the guys around him but he doesn't have the risk either. For those of you in the know, he's a very "Schulmanesque" kind of player.
  • Matt Holliday: His rise and fall the last year has been pretty funny. On Colorado he was a first rounder and on Oakland he was suddenly a third rounder. His first half struggles made him a regular old boring OF then a trade to the NL and he's now afirst rounder again. He's not as good as he's his highs and not as bad as his lows.
  • Any non-Lincy pitcher. I'd prefer any of these hitters or even some below them (you'll have to wait till next time, sucha tease right?) but if you want to get a hitter and pitcher in the wrap around you could go with a number of guys like Verlander Greinke and Felix depending on your preference.
So there you have it, my preliminary top 10 for 2010. Anything ya'll would do differently?

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