Over at BaseballThinkFactory, Dan Szymborski posted his ZiPS projections on how Derek Jeter and Ichiro Suzuki's (along with Dickie Thorn) careers will/would end up. For Ichiro he adjusts his Japan statistics to what he'd do in the majors if he was on Seattle the entire time, and the career results are quite fantastic. In theory, if Ichiro played his entire career in Seattle and finishes up how ZiPS says, he'd finish with 4,188 hits. That would place him one hit behind Ty Cobb, and 68 behind Pete Rose. Obviously Ichiro did a lot of his damage in Japan, but this just goes to show how great he is.
Derek Jeter projects to finish with 3574 hits, 280 homers, 1986 runs, .310 batting average, and 116 OPS+. It says Jeter will still be an above average hitter from 2010-2012, but after that his OPS+ were under 100 (2013-2015). Regardless, that would place Jeter 5th all time in hits and 9th all time in runs. Shortstop wise (75% of your games at SS) those numbers would place him 1st in hits, 1st in runs, 3rd in homers, 7th in OPS+. Basically Jeter is tops in career counting numbers or averages at the shortstop position. Plus, these career projections are likely on the conservative side. It's obviously no sure thing for JEter to be getting regular playing time until 2015 without injury, but Jeter could be a special case. He's 35 years old and he's showed no real aging pattern, he's had career years at ages 25, 32, and 35. You can't fight age, and as you get older you should start getting worse, but maybe Jeter plays at a similar level for the next couple of years, and doesn't decline as quickly as the ZiPS projections suggest. It's not out of the question, and either way Jeter is still one of the best (probably 2nd best) shortstops of all time.
In other news, the Yankees dominated the White Sox last night with 2 pitchers (Mitre and Gaudin) throwing a one hitter. They're 81-48 with a 6 game lead in the division. They have the best record in baseball, and the 2nd best run differential. Anyway you want to slice it, the Yankees are sick and going to make the playoffs. They can legitimately start looking ahead towards October and planning for it.
Joba Chamberlain pitches today against Freddy Garcia, possibly fighting for his rotation spot in the playoffs. If the postseason started today, is there any chance you would pitch Joba ahead of Andy? The Yankees are now having Joba throw every 5th day from here on out to try to see if that consistency can get him going. He's been on and off all year and has been off in his last 4 starts (20 innings 19 earned runs) while Andy's last 8 starts have him at 3-1 with a 2.79 ERA and probably most surprising are the 54 strikeouts in 51.2 innings. It's an easy call right now, but the Yankees would love to have a problem deciding between 3rd and 4th starters if both are pitching well.
After this game the Yankees travel to Baltimore for 3, and then to Toronto for a 4 game series. It should be an easy week for the Yankees and I say they win tonight, and win 5 games against the O's and Jays.
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