New Johan Info.

Buster Olney reports today that there have been red flags since 2007 about Johan's elbow:

At the end of the 2007 season, scouts reported that Santana's velocity was down and that he had basically stopped throwing his slider. Officials from the Red Sox and Yankees took this as a sign that Santana was having elbow trouble and wanted to avoid the torque inherent in throwing a slider.

In 2006 Johan's average fastball velocity was 93.1 mph, in 2007 it was 91.7 and this year it's 90.5. In 2004, the start of Johan's amazing run he threw his slider 19.6%, in 2006 it was 16.5%, in 2007 it was 11.6% and this year it's 9.4%. So, the scouts that Olney speaks of clearly were on to something.

After Liriano threw 37.6% sliders in 2006 en route to Tommy John Surgery it shouldn't be a shocker that the Twins decided to limit the amount of sliders Johan threw, especially if there were already concerns with his elbow. It's also not like the slider wasn't a useful pitch, having positive pitch values according to Fangraphs, with the slider being his 2nd best pitch in 2006. Interesting then that he'd throw it 5% less in 2007 after it was such a useful pitch, another sign pointing towards a potential elbow issue.

The Mets signed Pedro Martinez and didn't get much production out of him, it wouldn't be a total shock if a similar thing happens with Johan. It will be very hard for Johan to live up to the salary that he'll get in the coming years. He'll essentially have to play at a similar level as he did from 2004-2008 for the next 5 years, and with declining velocity and this new (although possibly somewhat old) elbow issue, that looks unlikely. Production wise, the Pedro signing was a disaster, but people played it off as a "culture changing" move, that the Mets wouldn't have gotten Beltran or Delgado if it wasn't for the Pedro signing. That may be so (I'm not buying it), but will they say similar things about Johan if he needs elbow surgery and isn't the same ace as he has been before?

Then again, Chris Carpenter has had 2 Tommy John Surgeries and basically hasn't pitched since 2006 and he has a 2.16 ERA this year.

The Yankees looked stupid last year missing the playoffs with Melky stinking it up and Hughes/Kennedy not giving them anything. This year however Melky's been pretty good and Hughes has been a revelation the bullpen. It's too early to tell just like it was after one year last year, but considering the Yankees got Sabathia, long term and now maybe even the short term it may have been the right non-move for the Yankees.

UPDATE 4:02PM: Well, it looks like Johan will undergo minor elbow surgery and should return by Spring Training. It looks like the Mets may have dodged a bullet here, albeit from a gun that they pulled the trigger on.