Monday, August 3, 2009

Moneyball Report

Team Leaders in OBP: Yankees (.359), Angels (.353), Dodgers (.353), Red Sox (.351), Rays (.348)

Bottom Feeders in OBP: Giants (.308), Royals (.309), Reds (.311) Padres (.312), Mariners (.315)...just for show the A's have the 7th worst at (.322)

The Royals who wanted to improve their OBP this offseason, have dropped since last week. Those bottom feeders are more bad than the leaders are good. The MLB isn't a "copy cat" league quite as much as the NFL but you'd expect every team to realize that not making outs is more important than having a guy in the 2-hole that can move the runners over. The Yankees backup catcher, Jose Molina has a .316 OBP. He'd be better than 5 guys who get significant playing time on the Royals, pathetic.

Team Leaders in UZR: Giants (47.6), Mariners (44.4), Rays (38.8), Pirates (38.0), Rangers (24.7) ...just for show A's are 12th (9.6)

Bottom Feeders in UZR: Red Sox (-29.8), Royals (-29.1) Mets (-28.7), Nationals (-26.0) Braves (-20.0)

Last week I wrote Padres when it should have been Pirates. Other than that just some minor changes. The Red Sox had the 5th worst defense last week, now they are the worst. This is somewhat surprising considering they are a Saber friendly organization. It's doubtful that they are behind the pace when it comes to defensive stats, they just don't have the defensive goods this year as they had last year. Jason Bay and Ellsbury have been pretty atrocious according to UZR, and Lowell's hip clearly is affecting his fielding (15.6 UZR/150 last year, -16.4 this year).

Team FIP Leaders: Braves (3.67), Giants (3.73),Red Sox(3.79), Dodgers (3.84), Rockies (3.91)

Bottom FIPers: Brewers (4.92), Orioles (4.84), Reds (4.79), Indians (4.72), Nationals (4.64)

Coincidence that the top 5 in FIP are all in the hunt, while 4 of the bottom 5 aren't? The same is true for OBP. You really can't be dead last in any phase of the game and still expect to compete. And if you are you better be awesome at the other phases. The Giants are in the hunt with the worst OBP, but they also have the best defense, and the 2nd best pitching when not factoring defense.

Team Leaders in ExpWin%: Dodgers (.615), Red Sox (.595), Rays (.574) Angels/Phillies (.570) Yankees (.565).

Last week I said watch out for the Rays and Sox to rise while the Yankees slip. The Rays have pretty much stayed the same but the Sox cut down the Yankees lead to half a game. The Yankees have won a lot of close games since the break which explains why they have the best record in the divion, but it also helps explain why they are 3rd in the division according to ExpWin%. Regardless, the division race will definitely be a good one.

Moneyball Moves: Last week I felt that the Brewers would get Washburn and I was wrong, but he was still traded just to Detroit. Jack Z traded a fly ball guy that benefits from Saefco and the Mariners OF defense, and in return gets another fly ball guy that will benefit from Saefco and the Mariners OF defense, along with a young potential minor league arm. All of that for a guy who is still owed a few million this year, is a free agent next year, and won't get offered arbitration. One would call this a Money

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