Cy Young Favorites

Whereas RBI on winning teams mean everything for most MVP voting, wins mean everything for the Cy Young. That's not how it should be but that's the truth. Because of that it should be no surprise when BBWAA Richard Griffin lists his Cy Young favorites as the following:

1. CC Sabathia: Yes, the Yankees score a boxcar full of runs for him, but after being 1-3, with a 4.85 ERA after his start on May 2, coming out of the gate slowly in the pressure cooker of the Bronx, Sabathia has gone 14-4, winning his last five starts. The Bombers have scored 103 runs in his 15 wins.

2. Justin Verlander: The fireballing Tiger disappeared after his impressive rookie and sophomore seasons in 2006, '07, but has come back to top the AL in strikeouts and Detroit to the Central lead.

3. Josh Beckett: He was runner-up to Sabathia in '07 even though he recorded 20 wins. Averaging just over 6 2/3 innings per start, he has allowed 17 runs and 10 homers in his last three outings over 20 1/3 innings.

4. Zack Greinke: After 10 starts, the Royals righty seemed a mortal lock for the Cy, posting an 8-1 record through May 26, with an 0.84 ERA. Since then, as his team spiralled down, Greinke has gone 3-7, but leads in ERA and ranks second in Ks.

5. Roy Halladay: So much attention was focused on Doc during the month of July that anything he has done since seems like a failure. Nobody could have handled that debacle any better, but the distractions and unwanted attention cost him any chance at Cy.

6. Felix Hernandez: So much has been expected of Felix. Now that he has finally showed up to lead the Mariners to contention, he will garner many of the left coast writers' votes. His team scored five runs in his last three starts; he hasn't won since Aug.1.

Mark Teixeira has Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon hitting ahead of him with Alex Rodriguez behind, therefore he gets a lot of RBI opportunities. CC Sabathia and Josh Beckett play on great teams with great bullpens, therefore they get a lot of wins. They are among the best pitchers in baseball, but wins shouldn't equal hardware although they inveitabely always do. Just look at Barry Zito circa 2002. He had a great year he went 23-5 with a 2.75 ERA, but Pedro Martinez went 20-4 with a 2.26 ERA. To put that in a little more context, Zito had a 158 ERA+ and Pedro had a 202, which is beyond significant.

This year Greinke has a Pedro-lite 180 ERA+ and Sabathia, Verlander, Beckett have ones of 125, 135, and 130 respectively. The pitcher closest to Greinke only places 6th on that list but has the 2nd best ERA+ of 159. Essentially you can make a case that the reverse order would be better than the current one.

Now, I don't mean to criticize Griffin for this list, as it may not be who he thinks is deserving, just who are the favorites. And he should know, being in the BBWAA, who the favorites are, but it is still annoying to find that the same old practices used to vote for MVP are likely going to be used for the Cy Young.

CC Sabathia is having a great season. He gives the Yankees innings every time out and since the rough beginning he's been one of the best pitchers in the league. He, however, has not been the best pitcher in the league thus far. If CC Sabathia got the run support that Zach Greinke gets I don't think CC Sabathia would be on this list (or mine below). A lot can change in the last month plus of baseball and this award is far from being final (unlike the MVP where Mauer should have that shit locked up), but right now it can't be CC.

Without any further ado (even though I have already rambled for a little while), here is my list for AL Cy Young 2010:

1. Zach Greinke: He's hands down been the best pitcher in the league. If he has only 12 wins at the end of the year maybe that's enough to deservingly hurt him, but at this point he's still the best pitcher, easy.
2. Justin Verlander: He leads in strikeouts and has been a horse all year. 2nd in Wins, 2nd in FIP, top 10 in ERA, just a dominating season
3. Felix Hernandez: Overlooked amazing season, 2nd in ERA.
4. Roy Halladay: He's somehow lost the race already in Griffin's mind, but he's just 2 wins off the league leader and has an ERA better than anyone not named Greinke or Felix.
   
5. CC Sabathia: He's still having a great year even if it's not the best. His chances rely completely on his win totals.
   
6. Josh Beckett: Seemed to have a sub-par year last year but that was mostly a product of luck. He has been one of the best pitchers in baseball the last few years including this one.
7. Jon Lester: He's actually been better than some of the guys above him, but his bad luck early in the year has really hurt his ERA, and he only has 10 wins on a great team. However, since May 31 he's 7-2 with a 2.12 ERA.