Award Predictions

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AL ROY:
There are really only 2 contenders for this, Texas Rangers closer Neftali Feliz and Detroit Tigers center fielder Austin Jackson.  Austin Jackson  fielded his position very well  and a .293/.340/.400 line is nothing to sneeze at even if it is BABIP influenced (.396).  Neftali Feliz had a sensational year at closer with 40 saves for a division winner, a 2.73 ERA and 71 strikeouts in 69 1/3 innings.  There is precedent for AL West closers winning the ROY, as Kaz Sasaki did in 2000 winning over 2nd place finisher Terrance Long.  Take a look at the similarities between Long and Jackson:

Austin Jackson 2010: .293/.340/.400 102 OPS+, 2.9 bWAR (baseball-reference WAR)
Terrance Long 2000:  .288/.336/.452, 101 OPS+, 2.8 bWAR

I would vote for Austin Jackson, I'd side with the every day player but unfortunately I think that Neftali Feliz will take it much like Sasaki did a decade ago.

NL ROY:

The owner of this card will be
wealthy one day.

Great battle, Jason Heyward vs. Buster Posey.  Luckily people vote before the playoffs because otherwise Heyward wouldn't have a chance with Posey leading the Giants to the World Series.  It's hard to blame the Giants for not calling up Posey sooner because they are as you know, playing in the World Series, but it's the difference in playing time that gives Heyward the edge.

Buster Posey was truly sensational this year putting up a .368 wOBA at the hardest position on the diamond leading to 3.9 fWAR (FanGraphs WAR) and 3.0 bWAR. But, he only played in 108 games with several of them at 1b.

Jason Heyward put up a .376 wOBA, played great defense in right and played in 142 games leading to an even 5.0 fWAR and 3.2 bWAR.

On a per game basis Buster Posey has been better, but Jason Heyward has played in significantly more games leading to him getting my vote.  I also think the voters will side with Heyward because they got it in their minds that he was the winner early on, and he did nothing to change their minds.

AL Cy Young:

Is it really my fault that Russell Branyan was
the best hitter on the team?

A lot of good and varied candidates here.  If you like ERA there is Felix Hernandez and his 2.27 Earned Run Average.  If you like wins CC Sabathia lead the league with 21.  If you like stirkeouts there is AL K leader Jered Weaver (233).  If you like a mix there is Jon Lester who finished with 19 wins (2nd) 225 strikeouts (225) or David Price who had 19 wins (2nd) and a 2.72 ERA (3rd).  Or if you are statistically inclined there is Cliff Lee and Francisco Liriano who finisehd 1st and 2nd respectively in FIP.

My vote  goes to the ERA leader (2.27) Felix Hernandez who also finished 2nd in strikeouts (just 1 shy of the leader), lead the league in innings pitched (249 2/3), and finished 4th in the league in FIP (3.04). The fact that he only had 13 wins does not really concern me.  Over the long haul, sure, a good pitcher is going to win games, but they are just too much a product of the team surrounding them.  Felix Hernandez had 13 wins and a 2.27 ERA, Phil Hughes had 18 wins and a 4.19 ERA.  In  Felix's starts the Mariners scored 3.1 runs a game, for Phil Hughes the Yankees scored 6.8 runs per game.  Judging by things in Felix's control, he was by any real measure the best pitcher in the league so he gets my vote.  As for what the voters will do, I think Lester/Price/Sabathia will hurt each others chances since there is no "one" alternative to Felix and therefore Felix Hernandez will sneak in a win.

NL Cy Young:
Another group of solid candidates: Roy Halladay, Adam Wainwright, Ubaldo Jiminez, Josh Johnson and if he didn't have a horrendous August, Tim Lincecum.   Adam Wainwright can give Roy a run for his money, but he gets my vote.  He lead the league in wins, innings pitched, finished 2nd in ERA and pretty much just dominated the JV for the entire year.  I could go into the more ins and outs of this, but I think everyone in the world is in agreement, Roy Halladay NL Cy Young winner.

AL MVP:
Last year Joe Mauer missed the first month of the season but played well enough while healthy to be deserving.  This year Josh Hamilton essentially missed all of September but was good enough from April till the end of August to deserve the award.  Playing in 133 games while batting .359/.411/.633 and playing a good outfield is good enough with me.  There are other qualified candidates, Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Evan Longoria, Adrian Beltre, and Jose Bautista, but Josh Hamilton's 5 months of greatness beats them all and it shows up in WAR too considering he lead the AL with 8.0 fWAR.

Lucky for Mr. Hamilton is his feel good story and the fact that he reached the 100 RBI plateau, reasons why the voters will choose him for AL MVP as well.

NL MVP:

"I already have 3 of these Joey, please
take one"

This one is a doozy.  At various points during the season there were 3 players who could have won the triple crown: Joey Votto, Carlos Gonzalez and Albert Pujols.  Plus, there were 2 other players who may be even more deserving of the award considering the positions they play and how well they played it: Troy Tulowitzki and Ryan Zimmerman.  If someone truly has a transcendent year I won't knock him for being on a bad team, much like the MVP doesn't state that a pitcher can't win, it doesn't state that the winner must come from a playoff team.   However, since there are so many, and equal, candidates in the NL, I'm going to side with Joey Votto, he on the division winning Reds.  It's not like he's undeserving either, he did lead the NL in FanGraphs version of Wins Above Replacement, OPS, wOBA or any other cumulative hitting statistic that you want to use.

If you think that Pujols should win (again), or if you value defense more and want to give it to Troy Tulowitzki or Ryan Zimmerman I won't argue with you, but for my money Joey Votto has been the best player, or most valuable rather, in the National League.  I also think the voters will agree.  CarGo and Tulo made a nice run in September but similar to how Heyward didn't do anything to have the voters change their minds, neither did Votto.

Earth to Ron Washington: It's Okay to Use Feliz Before the Ninth!

Neftali Feliz asking a higher power why

he continues to stay in the bullpen in

crucial non-save situations.

In game one of the ALCS the Yankees scored 5 runs in the 8th inning against the Texas Rangers middle relief corps of Darren Oliver, Darren O'Day, Clay Rapada, and Derek Holland en route to a comeback victory.

Last night, in game two of the World Series the Giants scored 7 runs off of Darren O'Day, Derek Holland, Mark Lowe, and Michael Kirkman, killing any chance the Rangers might have for a comeback in the 9th.

In both cases the Rangers best reliever, Neftali Feliz, was in the bullpen watching.

This isn't the regular season, it's the damn World Series, you want to go down with your best, not with your mediocre relievers who have been dece all year.

Two games can't tell you that Bruce Bochy is a better manager than Ron Washington but when Washington puts Vlad in the outfield he fittingly makes 2 errors.  When he's presented with a similar situation regarding using his closer he makes the same mistake again. When Bochy decides that Renteria should play SS (even after stinking over the last 2 years) he rips a homer and 3 RBI.   When it makes sense he'll think 'outside the box' and pitch Lincecum out of the pen in a deciding game or use Brian Wilson for more than one inning, and it works.  Just sayin'.

Cliff Lee apparently will not, under any circumstances, pitch on 3 days rest, but if the Rangers are down 3 games to 0, will Ron Washington really go down with Tommy Hunter on the mound?  If history tells us anything he won't mind losing with his (non) best on the field, and he'll regret it.

Brian Sabean, I'm Sorry

Back in my early days of blogging, I was a little more of a loose cannon.  When the Giants traded pitching prospect Tim Alderson for Freddy Sanchez in July of 2009 I pretty much bashed Giants GM Brian Sabean calling him "a horrible General Manager ."

Tim Alderson: "Have you seen
my fastball?"

Now, some could still say that Brian Sabean is still a horrible manager, I still believe that he rode the Barry Bonds train for too long and Francisco Liriano and Joe Nathan are still on the Twins, but it wouldn't be because of that Tim Alderson/Freddy Sanchez deal.

In Keith Law's chat on ESPN today there was this exchange:

Justin (San Diego)

What happened to Tim Alderson? He went from top 100 prospect to a fringe prospect in a matter of a year.

Klaw

  (1:33 PM)

Lost his velocity. Don't see him ever getting back.

A quick Google check will show me that Tim Alderson had a 6.98 ERA in 38.2 A+ innings and a 5.62 ERA in 89.2 AAA innings this year in Pirates minor league system.  Freddy Sanchez meanwhile put up 2.7 WAR this year and is the starting 2b in the World Series for the Giants and he even hit 3 doubles in game one just for kicks.

I think it's safe to say this trade was a win, a big win for the Giants.

It's also safe to say that I'm sorry, Brian Sabean.

Cain and Able

Matt Cain pitches tonight against the Rangers in game 2 of the World Series and I have decided to join the list of approximately 340,404 people who have used this "play on words" as a headline.

Giants Rotation or a High School Assembly?
Matt Cain (right), and Tim Lincecum

Cain faces off against Rangers lefty CJ Wilson who statistically, has actually been fairly similar to Cain all year.  They both possess solidly similar ERAs (3.14 Cain, 3.35 Wilson), slightly worse FIPs (3.65 Cain, 3.56 Wilson), and even worse xFIPs (4.19 Cain, 4.20 Wilson).  FIP, for those of you not in the know, stands for Fielder Independent Pitching which measures a pitcher's effectiveness only on the factors that he controls (strikeouts, walks, etc.), taking fielders out of the equation.  xFIP (expected FIP) expands on FIP and takes out the "luck" component of Home Runs, factoring in an average HR/FB ratio which is usually around 10-11%.  So, it should be no surprise then both Cain and Wilson have HR/FB ratios that are below league average (7.4% Cain, 5.3% Wilson) which leads them to having an earned run average decidely lower than you would "expect" according to their xFIP.

Matt Cain has the reputation as being a better, if not much better, pitcher than CJ Wilson but when you look at the numbers, it's really a toss up. "Cain is able" to pitch another gem tonight but so is CJ Wilson.  The Giants struggled to score runs all year and game one was more of an anomaly rather than a trend as the Giants scored more runs (11) than they did in the entire ALDS (9).  I expect a close, low scoring game tonight which of course means it will be a high scoring blowout.

How To: Beat Cliff Lee part 2

A couple of weeks ago I had a post about a strategy of how to beat Cliff Lee and my conclusion was that there really is no real effective strategy against a pitcher like Cliff Lee when he is going.

There is no way Freddy Sanchez rips 3 doubles in the
World Series if he's still playing for his former team, the Pirates

The Yankees and Kevin Long had their "strategy" and it ended with Lee throwing 8 shutout frames while striking out 13 with one walk.  Kevin Long is a great hitting coach on the best hitting team in the league, so if the Yankees couldn't hit him the Giants, they of the great rotation weak lineup, would surely falter, right?

Wrong.  Last night the Giants knocked Lee for 6 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings en route to a series opening win.  So, it would seem like the strategy for beating Lee then would involve him facing a team in the inferior league with a lineup of castaways from other teams who are 30 years old and up.

Or maybe Cliff Lee was just unlucky?  He did give up 6 earned runs in less than 5 innings, so clearly he wasn't on his game, but he also struck out 7 batters while only walking one.  Also, of the 5 runs in the 5th inning scored off of Lee, 3 of them scored with 2 outs, and 2 of them scored while he was on the bench.  No, Cliff Lee didn't pitch well but he didn't pitch as poorly as the box score indicates.  With just one lucky bounce the Rangers could have won this thing.  I 'm not saying the Rangers were unlucky or the Giants lucky, they clearly outplayed the Rangers and they very well may continue to do so, but I chose the Rangers to win this thing and I'm stickin' to it.

Flip Flop Fly Ball, Does it Again!

If you've never been to the site, you must go to FlipFlopFlyin.com, NOW!

His latest gem is this:

It's a graphic that shows what the standings would look like if the team with the highest payroll always won.

What's interesting is that the Phillies and Giants are the only teams that won the division in, shall we say, real life if it was all decided by payroll.  Also, the Yankees are the only other team that would make the postseason in both scenarios.

I'm not going to lie and tell you that baseball has no competitive balance problem, but it's really no different than the other leagues.  This graphic illustrates how high salaries don't necessarily equate to wins (Mets, Cubs, Dodgers, Angels) and that you can win with low salaries (Padres, Rays, Reds).  The Yankees may always make the playoffs but it's not like the Colts or Lakers are missing the playoffs and while the Pirates are horrendous year to year I don't see the Lions or Raptors competing anytime soon.

NBA Predictions

The NBA is starting tonight so let's switch directions for a bit and do a little NBA Preview:

WEST
1.) Lakers: This team is loaded.  Whether or not they're fully healthy or not (Kobe/Bynum) for the entire season and get the #1 seed is irrelevant, come playoff time they will be the clear favorites.  The best team in the league last year got better by adding Steve Blake who's probably a better pg than starter Derek Fisher and 3's and D specialist Matt Barnes.  That will be enough to counter Kobe's decline.

2.) Spurs: Assuming that Parker is healthy and playing for a future contract I believe the Spurs deserve this spot.  Also, Richard Jefferson can only be better than last year, George Hill and Dejaun Blair have another year of experience and Tiago Splitter comes over to give Duncan some more rest.  The Spurs always play for the playoffs rather than wining in the regular season, but they now have the depth to do that while getting a top seed.

3.) Thunder: I'm not quite ready to anoint them as the #2 team in the west, but I really like them.  They were a little bit lucky last year playing the entire season without any real injuries, but they're super young and haven't hit their peak yet, that includes stars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.

4.) Mavericks: Dirk and co. are a lock for another 50 win season but without a real chance for the finals.  The one hope is that their midseason acquisitions last year (Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood) take a big step forward in the system.  I love Dirk, he's one of my favorite players, but I just don't see them competing beyond the regular season and the first round of the playoffs.

5.) Trail Blazers: I'm ranking them 5th but they could easily be 2nd if they're healthy.  If, and it's a huuuuuuuge if, Oden is healthy, the Blazers have probably the best defensive frontcourt in the league with him and Camby.  Brandon Roy is a true star, Aldridge is a solid wing man and they have the pieces to possibly make a midseason trade to really become a competitor.

6.) Jazz: Boozer out, Jefferson in.  Jerry Sloan with a top pg is always going to be a good team, but sadly that's about where their ceiling is in a loaded west.

7.) Rockets: They almost made the playoffs without Yao, so even if he gives them nothing (again), they have a chance to be be one of the top 8.  They have more depth than any team in the league, they literally go 12 deep.  That will help them deal with the long season as well as give them pieces to possibly make a trade, much like Portland.

8.) Hornets: If Paul is healthy the rest of his team is irrelevant, they'll always have a chance to make the playoffs.  That's no sure thing, and while their roster isn't good enough to keep Paul in New Orleans past his current deal, it's certainly better than last years, 50 win potential.

Sleepers
Suns:  Nash's teams will always be competitive, they were still solid without Amare, but 84 small forwards may be a little too much on one roster

Clippers: No real depth at all but Blake Griffin has a chance to be one of the league's best players which makes them an interesting team, especially if Baron Davis shows up.

EAST
1.) Heat: No surprise here.  They may not win 72 games but aren't they a lock for 65?  People are focusing on Joel Anthony's inability to possibly stop Dwight Howard but what about the league's inability to stop LBJ and DWade?

2.) Magic: They have a deep roster and the 3rd best player in the league.  The Celtics size shut down Howard in the playoffs last year, but Howard should go wild on the rest of the league, Miami included.

3.) Celtics: They're now the Big 4 with Rondo being the leader.  He still can't shoot for shit but having Nate Rob all year and new addition Delonte West can help mitigate that.  They also added great frontcourt depth with the O'Neals, Shaq and Jermaine.  They have the size to compete with the Magic and the depth to compete with the Heat, should be a nice 3-man race.

4.) Bulls: I'm expecting a big Derrick Rose jump this year which should catapult them to the 4th spot in the East with or without a fully healthy Boozer.

5.) Bucks: FEAR THE DEAR!!!!!  Brandon Jennings should get better and new additions Corey Maggette and Drew Gooden should add some offense to an already great defensive team. It will be interesting to see how Scott Skiles deals with success, in the past he's lost his team let's see if he can keep them going this year.

6.) Hawks: This is the same boring roster (if that's possible with Josh Smith on your team) as last year just with a new coach. They're kind of like a bad version of the Mavericks, a team who should gain a solid seed but have no (realistic) aspirations for a title.

7.) Knicks: Chris Duhon could have been the worst possible point guard to run D'Antoni's system, adding Felton is a bigger deal to this team than swapping David Lee for Amare.  They won't be good, but you don't have to be to sneak into the top 8 in the east.

8.) Wizards: I'm a believer in John Wall.  Brandon Jennings made the Bucks a playoff team in his rookie year and Rose brought the Bulls to a game 7 with the Celtics in his.  They also add Gilbert Arenas for a full season and have enough potential upfront with Blatche, Yi, and McGee to make some noise.

Sleepers
76ers: I'm not saying they're any good, they'll end up with a sub-.500 record but they have enough young talent that could take a leap forward, especially if Evan Turner does something.

Pacers: The Pacers finally got a pg who can run like the coach wants.  Darren Collison was good enough filling in for Chris Paul last year that a boring/bad team like the Pacers could sneak in with a little bit of luck

Boring prediction but an exciting finals matchup, I'm saying Heat vs. Lakers, Heat in 7 (they'll get home court, which is underrated in the NBA, I think).

AWARDS
Rookie of the Year:  I love John Wall but I think this is Griffin's award to lose.  If he's healthy most of the season he should sleepwalk to a double double and could even go 20-10.  Wall may be the better player, even as soon as this year, but Griffin will win the award

MVP: Even if the Heat win 70 games LBJ will have to put up a triple double to take this award,  that's how much the media will hate on him.  Plus, playing with Dwayne Wade will hurt his chances too even though it shouldn't..  Plus plus, everyone loves Kevin Durant and they have essentially given him the award already.  Durant may not play well enough to deserve the award (meaning LBJ performs better) or the Thunder may disappoint a little this year, but there is no way Durant plays bad enough to change the voters already decided minds, he's winning the MVP.

Dayton Moore One-Ups His Old Team

Last week, when we told you how good the Braves farm system was we warned you about the Kansas City Royals, now they're here:

1) Mike Moustakas, 3B, Grade A: This guy is really damn good. I believe he can stick at third base, so he ranks ahead of Hosmer just barely.

2) Eric Hosmer, 1B, Grade A: This guy is really damn good.

3) Wil Myers, C, Grade A: If I trusted his defense a bit more, he would rank number one. As it is, even if he ends up in right field I have no hesitation giving him a Grade A rating. The bat should be outstanding.

4) Danny Duffy, LHP, Grade A-: Going to go with the higher grade here over a B+; fortune favors the bold.

5) John Lamb, LHP, Grade B+: Slippage in Double-A keeps him from A- at this time, but an outstanding prospect.

6) Michael Montgomery, LHP, Grade B+: Worried a bit about future of his elbow.

Jon Sickels is notoriously a tough ranker and he's given the Royals 3 true grade A's as well as another 8 guys rated B- or above.   None of these guys can be considered a sure thing, including the 4 grade A's but it's pretty wild that with the Royals top prospects they could field an entire 5-man rotation, an entire infield including catcher and one outfielder.

Dayton Moore has made some really really stupid moves* but his ultimate goal the entire time has been to rebuild the Royals, and judging by his farm system, he may almost get there.  Hardly any of his signings has worked out but they haven't really hurt the teams future either.  Beyond Gil Meche's expensive contract that once looked promising but now looks crappy, the Royals wasted money doesn't total too much.  Plus, anyone who would have signed with the Royals won't still be on the Royals (I hope) by the time the youngins are ready.

*Signing Mike Jacobs, Jose Guillen, Willie Bloomquist, Gil Meche, Jason Kendall, Kyle Farnsworth, Horacio Ramirez, and trading for Yuniesky Betancourt.  Even when the deal seemed like it worked out like in Gil Meche's case, it didn't.  Meche was legitimately good in 2007 and 2008, but he was bad last year and was really bad/hurt this year (-0.2 WAR).  After 2 unhealthy and ineffective years it's unlikely to expect Meche to give the Royals much next year.  So, what started out as promising (4.4 and 5.0 WAR in 2007 and 2008) will  pretty bad with the Royals likely going to have to pay Meche $35 million for 3 poor years of performance.  This situation is similar to the Pedro Martinez signing with the Mets.  It was said that Pedro "changed the culture" of the Mets, making other players want to come to Queens.  The Mets were able to go to the 2006 ALCS  and Pedro was a part of that, but they also paid him tens of millions of dollars  to do hardly anything the next two years.  

If some of these prospects work out the Royals will have some good-great players making little money.  That won't make them competitors but it can give them a chance.  Moore will have to hit on some free agents in order to really make it work, something he hasn't necessarily shown the ability to do.  The Tamba Bay Rays are a model of what the Royals could do, but even the Rays who hit on their picks (Price, Longoria, Upton) couldn't compete with just their farm system.  If Moustakas, Hosmer and Myers join Billy Butler and an improved Alex Gordon to form a solid offensive core, and maybe Montgomery and Duffy become rotation regulars then the Royals still  have to find their Ben Zobrists, sign their Carlos Pena's and make their Matt Garza trades to really become a true competitor.

The Royals' killer farm system means that Moore isn't as bad as a GM as we may have previously thought, he did rebuild an entire system in a few years.  However, if the Royals are going to compete, they'll not only need these guys to produce at the major league level but also sprinkle in some outside sources as well something they've failed at miserably in past years.  But, Moore has shown the ability to scout and groom prospects like his old team and prospect powerhouse the Atlanta Braves and at least for the first time in a long time we can say the Royals have a future without lying about it.

Favre on Vikings ≠ Jeter on Red Sox

Recap: Brett Favre used to play on the Green Bay Packers.  He now plays on the Minnesota Vikings.  The Vikings are a rival of the Packers.  

Derek Jeter will not be taking his talents to Boston

So naturally during last nights Packers/Vikings games they had to make a big deal of Favre going to a rival.  They went as far as to show a picture of Jeter in a Red Sox uniform, to try to "show" you how big of a deal this is.  Except, it's not as big of a deal, here's why:

1. The Vikings are not the Packers main rival, the Bears are
2. Brett Favre went to the Jets first

I understand what they were trying to do but it's both stupid and inaccurate.  A more analogous situation would need to involve Jeter deciding this year and next year that he is retiring only to come back in February before spring training, then in 2013 switch leagues to play for the Dodgers, then come back in 2014 to play for the Red Sox in the midst of a scandal that involved Jeter showing his penis to sideline reporters to the chagrin of his wife of 3 years, Minka Kelly.  If this was such a big deal, why would they need to use these dumb examples to illustrate their point?  It's not like I couldn't comprehend the tragedy of Favre playing on the Vikings before I saw a dumb photoshopped picture of John Elway wearing the Raiders' black and gray.   

I have my gripes with the NFL, but as a whole, I still largely enjoy watching it.  Most of my problems are with their analysis, if you even want to call it that.  Every week on pre or post game shows they reiterate the same garbage.  If you listen long enough you will likely hear:

• You must run the ball to set up the pass
• Field position is crucial
• Never turn the ball over in the Red Zone
• Defense wins championships
• To play in January you have to win in December

This is all said in spite of the fact that some  teams seemingly do the opposite, passing to set up the run, offensive heavy teams are effective, and there is a lack of evidence suggesting momentum means anything in the playoffs.

They make a big deal out of everything, even if its nothing, kind of like this Packers Vikings matchup.  Don't get me wrong, as a Packers fan I understand the importance of the game as it relates to the standings in the division as well as the whole "Favre returning to Lambo" junk.  But sometimes they go to far, like they did (do, every time) on ESPN Sunday NFL countdown and as my friend Chris pointed out they had the topic "does Aaron Rodgers need to beat Brett Favre to ever be considered an all-time great?"  

Aaron Rodgers is almost 27 years old and is basically considered a top 5, at least top 10, QB in the NFL.  He is entering the prime of his career and by all accounts should have a 5 year peak window and if he's lucky, another 5 years after that.  To be an all-time great however, Aaron Rodgers must win Super Bowls...and a week 7 matchup between against the Vikings and Brett Favre just because he used to backup Brett Favre?  If the Packers lost this game (they didn't), according to some football "analysts" (aka loud-mouthed ex-NFL wide receivers), Aaron Rodgers would never be considered an all time great quarter back.  A QB who could theoretically win the next 10 MVPs and Super Bowls would never be "great" because he lost in week 8 in 2010.  

I'm not saying that Aaron Rodgers will be an all-time great QB, it's just that this game had no bearing on that decision.  Maybe your list would have more, but here's what I would look at when I'm determining a QB's legacy (in no order):

Aaron Rodgers (left) defeated Brett Favre last night
keeping his chances of becoming an all-time great alive

• Stats.  For an all-time great there has to be some evidence of it on the stat sheet. Intangibles can only go so far.
• Regular season wins.  Every game this QB brings it, giving you a chance to win.  While he doesn't have to always win, you can't have a loser
• Super Bowl wins.  I don't think there is a direct correlation to Super Bowl wins and quarter back greatness, but clearly winning the big one counts.
• Hardware.  I'm not using Pro Bowl counts as a determining factor but it counts for something. Also, was he ever the best in the league, taking home an MVP or at least what should have been an MVP award?
• Accumulator vs. Peak.  Some guys are good for a long time and some guys are great for a short time.  Being either of those could make you a great QB, but an all-time great must do both. 

What's missing from the list?  Mid-season matchups against your team's rival who's starting QB used to play for your team.  I get it, in the now this game is a big deal for this season as both teams were fluttering and there is that extra Brett Favre ripple involved.  But to extrapolate it and give it significance for someone's entire career is just pathetic.  NFL "analysis" has long been suffering, but they are reaching new lows.   

Here. We. Go.

Whether or not the Rangers are the best team in the American League or if the Giants are the best representative from the other league, these two teams will be facing each other in the World Series.

At this point, critiquing each team's regular season numbers in the lineup, rotation, and bullpen is almost completely irrelevant.  The Rangers may have only won 90 games, the fewest of the AL qualifiers, but how many games would they have won if they fielded their current team (what matters) for an entire season?  Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, and Josh Hamilton were all banged up for parts (even large chunks) of the season.  Is it safe to add a few "wins" to this team if they were healthy?  I'm pretty sure it is, and I'm positive it's safe to say that an entire season of Cliff Lee would have made the Rangers record look closer to the Yankees, Rays, and Twins.  Would they have won 100 games?  I doubt it, but it's likely that their current team, which consists of a healthy Cruz, Kinsler and Hamilton as well as Cliff Lee, is good enough to have won the series without it being written as a "shocker" (no sexual reference).

As for the Giants, they defeated the #1 team in the National League, the infallible Philadelphia Phillies (how's that for alliteration?).  The Big 3 deserved their reputation, the Phillies' lineup did not.  A lot of the Phillies hitters had down years, and played that way in the postseason.  Ryan Howard had his worst year since being a regular and struck out 17 times in his 33 ABs in the playoffs.  If he did that over the course of the season he would have had over 280 strikeouts, sheesh.  Chase Utley and Victorino were hurt during parts of the year and in general had slight down years, both of them didn't hit in the playoffs.  Raul Ibanez and Jimmy Rollins both have/had reputations that far exceeded their performance, unsurprisingly, they didn't hit.  This isn't to say that the Phillies should have lost to the Giants, they are a good team and should be considered the favorites again heading into next year, just that we shouldn't build up a team as such a favorite and then be shocked they don't live up to the lofty expectations we gave them.

ANYWAYS, this series is really about the Rangers vs. Giants, not how they got here.  If we've learned anything from this postseason its that in a small sample size anything can happen.  It is definitely a  surprise that the Rangers and Giants are facing each other, so we shouldn't be surprised (again) when the favorite ends up being the loser.  I'll make what now seems like a utterly useless prediction and say that the Rangers will win in 6 games because I think they are the better team, but I really have no idea

Atlanta Braves, Prospect Machine

While the Royals system is likely better at the top, the Atlanta Braves have an excellent farm system.  Over at MinorLeagueBall Jon Sickels ranks the Atlanta Braves top prospects for 2011:

1) Julio Teheran, RHP, Grade A: Second only to Hellickson and Chapman in my view.

2) Freddie Freeman, 1B, Grade A-: Great Triple-A performance at age 20 is rare. You can make a case for a pure Grade A.

3) Mike Minor, LHP, Grade A-: Borderline B+. I think he can be a number two starter. Right on the edge between those two grades for me.

4) Randall Delgado, RHP, Grade B+: Can also be a number two guy if all goes well.

5) Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Grade B: Would also be a B+ if not for health concerns, but that's enough for me to hold him back a notch.

Three prospects grade A- or better is very rare and very awesome.  Even rarer may be the 14 prospects that Sickels ranks B- or above.  This is the same system mind you that lost 3  pitching prospects to the Cubs for Derek Lee.  It's also the same system that traded Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Matt Harrison, Elvis Andrus, and Neftali Feliz to the Rangers for Mark Teixeira a few years back; traded Jeff Locke (6th rated Pirates prospect), Gorkys Hernandez, and Charlie Morton to Pittsburgh for Nate McClouth; and graduated future (if not current) ace Tommy Hanson and future (if not current) all-star Jason Heyward to the big leagues in the last two seasons.

Basically, the Braves are a prospect powerhouse, constantly churning out solid prospect after solid prospect.  These guys don't go Alex Gordon on anyone either, they generally turn out to be above-average major leaguers. The Braves have some serious pitching depth to say the least.  Not many teams can trade major league ready pitching and/or great pitching prospects, but the Braves have the depth.  What that means is that the Braves, who already made the playoffs this year, should be good for the future as well since they have the luxury to trade for needs while still keeping the future in tact.

The Phillies have been the class of the NL for three years running now, but they're also starting to show their age with injuries to their (now older) stars and general decline in performance.  I wouldn't be so naive as to name the Braves as the best team in the NL, farm from it, but they do have a very nice future.  When Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman are anchoring the lineup and Julio Teheran, Tommy Hanson, and Mike Minor are heading the rotation all in their primes at an affordable price the Braves may find themselves as kings of the National League (again).

There's No Concussions in Baseball!

Although Jason Bay, Justin Morneau and Ryan Church would disagree, we can all agree it's not quite the problem that it is in the NFL.  Take a look at this Tweet by CJ Wilson @str8edgeracer:

Listening to mark schlereth break down helmetgate and NFL's shadyness on espn makes me happy I play #mlb and have the mlbpa

This is on the heels of NFL instituting fines and inevitably suspensions for unnecessarily hard hits.  While the NFL has a built in advantage for parody, the MLB maybe has an advantage in dealing with concussions as there is talk now of instituting a 7-day disabled list for concussions.  Jason Bay and Justin Morneau missed a good portion of this season due to concussions.  In the NFL, players continue to play with concussions, just listen to what Channing Crowder had to say:

If I'm knocked out, I don't know where I'm at, I can't say my name, now I can't play football.  If I get hit in the head and black out for a second and now I get back up dizzy, OK, I'm ready to go

There seems to be some sort of sick sense of pride in the NFL about playing hurt or with a concussion, and its kind of disturbing. This is the league that has had players die during practice and get paralyzed on the field during games.  It took Dale Earnhardt's death for NASCAR to make necessary safety changes.  It seems like the NFL is tip-toeing a very dangerous line here, they shouldn't be waiting for their version of Dale Earnhardt.  Their solution (thus far) has been to penalize players for rough hits, and in reaction to that players have been outraged calling it "Flag Football" and even considering retirement like James Harrison apparently did before returning to practice.

It should be repeated, players have already died and been paralyzed on things unrelated to concussions and now with more concussions than ever and more medical studies revealing the effect of them and the NFL doesn't really know what to do.  This is a tough call-- the NFL has to keep the safety of its players first but it also doesn't want to change the game.   If they don't solve this issue fast it will likely get worse before it gets better.  The NFL is the most popular sport in America, and will  remain that way for a long time, but at what point will kids stop playing football and in turn stop watching it (as much)?

It should be no surprise then why CJ Wilson is thankful he plays in the MLB.  

Mo the Great, and MVY?

Everyone is aware of Mariano Rvera's microscopic career ERA in the postseason-- 0.71.  It's incredible, remarkable, awe-inspiring, beyond belief, or any other number of synonyms that you want to use.  What I never really realized was the amount of innings Mo has pitched with that ERA--138 2/3 innings which puts him 8th all time:

While Mo's production hasn't changed
over the years, his style sure has

   

It's also within reason that Rivera will pass Whitey Ford considering that the Yankees always make the postseason and Rivera has shown no signs of slowing down (literally none, I think his success in this postseason offsets his dece-ness in September).  Whenever I hear that Mo has the best ERA I always thought in the back of my head it was on the heals of like 70 or so innings, not the 8th most ever.  I knew that Derek Jeter has had a little less than seasons worth of ABs in the postseason, so I figured Mo would too, totally wrong.  Like I said Jeter has roughly played a full season in the playoffs, 146 postseason games 595 ABs.  For Mo that would be about 65 games and 70-80 innings but he's pitched in 93 games and thrown 138 2/3 inning, essentially doubling what would be his seasonal norm, unreal.  

When people talk about the MVY (Most Valuable Yankee) since 1996 the conversation is always Mo vs. Jeter, and deservingly so.  If push comes to shove, I'm always going to side with the position player.  For 162 game season under no circumstances would you prefer the elite closer to the shortstop.  However, for the postseason it's actually likely that Mo has been more valuable.  Just look at game one of this ALCS, Ron Washington didn't use his closer Neftali Feliz in the 8th to stop the bleeding because Feliz wasn't used to doing that.  Or look at Brian Wilson in the ALDS against the Braves, blowing a game i trying to go for a 6-out save.  In both those games Mariano would have closed the door, automatic.  Also, it's not like we are comparing Mo to "ok" closers, Brian Wilson and Neftali Feliz have had truly outstanding seasons and they did something Mo just (almost) never does, blow a save or be limited to one inning.

To start a team you would be smart to take Jeter but to build a playoff team you may want to take Mariano.  I'm not sure whether that makes him more valuable but it sure makes for a great discussion.   

Championship Series Roundup

Yankees 7 Rangers 2: Sabathia pitched well enough in 6 innings giving up only the 2 runs but on 11 hits. If there is ever a time to say a pitcher "scattered" his hits, this was it:
1st inning: 2 hits
2nd  inning: 1 hit
3rd inning: 1 hit
4th inning: 1 hit
5th inning: 3 hits
6th inning: 3 hits

Sabathia had your typical/cliche "bend not break" performance and the Yankees bats finally came out early, getting 5 quick runs through the first 3 innings.  CJ Wilson, who led the league in walks, wasn't really in control all game and that generally doesn't work out to well against a patient lineup like the Yankees will get to you.

Colby Lewis takes the bump tomorrow against Phil Hughes.  Hughes was great against Minnesota and awful against Texas, if he finds a place somewhere in the middle I think the Yankees would take it.  Colby Lewis has only given up 2 runs in this postseason but he's also walked 8 guys which has limited him to only 10 innings.  If Lewis continues to walk guys against the Yankees he'll either have a tough time keeping them from scoring, get his pitch count up and have to hand the ball over to a shaky (aka bad) bullpen, or both.  I've been pretty bad (aka terrible) at predicting this series thus far but I'm expecting the Yankees to make it to a game 7.

Sandoval and Uribe, likely the heaviest SS/3b duo
of all time, celebrate Uribe's walkoff sac last night.
(Getty Images)

Giants 6 Phillies 5: The Giants took a surprising 3-1 series lead as Buster Posey brought out his whooping stick collecting 4 hits. Starters Bumgarner and Blanton both gave up 3 runs in 4.2 innings but the Giants relief was just slightly better to win in the 9th.  Or maybe their starting pitching was better because it was Roy Oswalt who lost the game in the 9th for the Phillies.  Anyways, now the Phillies find themselves in the same situation as the Yankees were in last night, down 3 games to 1 in the series with their ace taking the hill.  Tim Lincecum is an outstanding pitcher but he's a human and it would be hard for any mortal to beat Roy Halladay twice.

The worry for the Phillies has to be their offense.  I hinted in September that their lineup isn't as good as their reputation, and that  has definitely borne some fruits in this postseason as the Phillies continue to struggle to score runs.  It won't get any easier tonight against Tim Lincecum, but at least they have their ace going.

Derek Jeter's Position in 2011...in the Lineup

Derek Jeter is by most accounts a pretty lousy fielder.  Even the people who have awarded him the Gold Glove on three occasions will admit that Jeter shouldn't be playing SS much longer and often recommend that he switch positions to left field.  They suspect that Jeter's strong arm and knack for going back on the ball would play well in left field. 

"Please don't make me an outfielder!"

I'm not here to deny that logic, if you look at Bill James' defensive spectrum it's pretty easy to see and understand that playing shortstop is harder than left field.  Jeter, like most shortstops, would likely be a better fielder in left.  However, that would hardly make him a better player,  although Jeter is an average fielder at best, shortstop is still the position for him.  Everyone and their grandmother at this point knows that Jeter has had a bad year, but when you compare him to other guys at his position, he's not terrible.  If we use wOBA, which FanGraphs describes as "a linear weight formula presented as a rate statistic scaled to On Base Percentage", to rank hitters you will find that Jeter placed 8th among shortstops.  If you are unfamiliar with wOBA, or just don't like it, Jeter still ranks 10th in OPS, so any way that you want to slice it Jeter is still in the upper half of shortstops when it comes to hitting.  Further, if we look at WAR, which is an all inclusive stat that takes defense into consideration, Jeter still ranks in the upper half at his position.

How could you move
a puppy face like this! 

With that said, lets take a look at how Jeter would rank if he moved to the outfield.  Like we stated earlier, Jeter's .320 wOBA is in the upper half among shortstops, but in the outfield he would rank 55th, between Rajaj Davis and Michael Bourn.  If we just look at left field he would rank 17th between Rajaj Davis and Juan Pierre. While Jeter would likely benefit fielding wise from a move to left field, how good of a fielder could we even exepct him to be?  A guy in his late 30s playing outfield for the first time just doesn't strike me as someone who would be great defensively.  Jeter's bat simply doesn't play in the outfield unless he becomes a great outfielder, and at this point that is unrealistic.  The best position on the field for Jeter remains shortstop, even though he is below-average defensively it's still where Jeter gives the Yankees the best value.

His position in the lineup is another story. The Yankees have a stacked lineup and Derek Jeter may not be worthy of his regular spot atop the lineup next year.  Jeter started to bat leadoff last year because of two reasons:

• He gets on base a lot.  Coming into the season in 2009, Jeter had a career OBA of .387



On second thought, I don't think Jeter
can be too sad coming home to this
(Brett Williams)

• He grounds into a lot of double plays.  

Jeter hasn't stopped grounding into double plays and considering he lead the league this year in GB% and isn't getting any quicker, I imagine this will get worse before it gets better.  So, the same reasoning why he should bat leadoff over 2nd in the lineup will still apply.  As far as that leadoff spot is concerned, the Yankees need Jeter to get on base.  Over his career he's been great at that and still has a career .385 OBA, but this year it slipped all the way down to .340.  That is still above average mind you, but on a team like the Yankees it may not cut it.  Not when they have Brett Gardner (.383 OBA) and Nick Swisher (.359 OBA) as other options.  Also, even though Curtis Granderson isn't an on base machine, he still is a better hitter than Jeter at this point in his career and would it would behoove (Michael Kay h/t) the Yankees to give him more ABs over Jeter.  

What position Jeter will play on the field has been a big topic of discussion but as we have illustrated, that discussion should end with Jeter remaining at shortstop.  The real concern is Jeter's other position, in the lineup.  The Yankees are going to overpay for Jeter next year and that's neither a surprise nor a detriment to a team with the Yankees funds. The real detriment will be if Jeter is batting 1st or 2nd, hitting ball after ball on the ground while being among the league leaders in GIDP at the expense of more capable hitters.  Jeter will likely be too proud to take a large pay cut, it will be interesting to see if he's too proud to move down the Yankee lineup, a position where he may belong.

Feel Better

This has nothing to do with baseball, but I found it worth posting.

If you fly Delta Airlines, stuck somewhere in between your SkyMall magazine, safety instructions and the Sky Magazine to tell you what the CEO has done to make you more comfortable and the best steak houses in cities you have no interest in seeing, you may find that your Airsickness bag or "barf bag" if you will, will look like this:

Nothing wrong with this picture, they do a nice job explaining the purpose of the bag without being graphic, and it seems like they genuinely care about your health.  But then look at what is on the other side of the bag:

What does one do if they felt motion sickness on the flight before their stopover?  Should they still use it as a seat holder?  I found it funny that the same device you use to vomit in you would use to simply hold your seat, just seems like a potential conflict of interest, but maybe it's just me.

2011 Zack Greinke, Where You At?

Zack Greinke is a great pitcher, the Royals are a bad team.  They do, however, have a loaded farm system as Dayton Moore's three five year plan is starting to bear some fruits. Greinke doesn't seem too impressed though having said in August:

"There's no reason for me to get real excited about it because the chance of more than one of them making a major impact by the time my contract is up is pretty slim."

The Royals initially said that they weren't going to trade Greinke but that has changed as they are now "listening to offers" and the reasoning could be that pesky contract that Greinke talks about.  Greinke signed a very reasonable 4 year $38M extension in 2009 but now it's starting to get expensive as he's due $13.5M in 2011 and 2012.  $13.5M is still paying Greinke less than the value he will likely give you, but on a team that won't be competing next year or in 2012 and with no chance to resigning him, the prospects may be more valuable to the Royals.  Just search "Zack Greinke"on MLBTradeRumors.com  and you're bound to find rumors swirling, I figured I'd take the time now to see what teams might be interested in acquiring Greinke:

Note to Self

Do not try to guess what will happen in a playoff series, let alone an individual game.  I thought that in game one the Yankees would win easily, setting the tone for the series.  They ended up winning the hardest way possible and Texas has totally set the tone for the series with their starting pitching (2-0 20.2 ip, 5 runs) .  I "predicted" that in game 3 the Yankees bats would start to hit because they were "due".  What was actually due was another amazing pitching performance by Cliff Lee.  Now my reputation is resting on AJ Burnett (and Ron Washington's horrible bullpen management- Neftali Feliz in an 8 run game?) to win game 4-- god help me.

AJ Burnett's Season is Awesome...

for making interesting graphs showing how un-awesome he is:

.  

If you've never been to visual baseball, I suggest you go there, now.  

ANYWAYS, this is why the Yankees #4 starter has gotten so much attention, AJ Burnett has been that bad, as the graph clearly illustrates.

On the other hand, Tommy Hunter is pitching for the Rangers in game 4 and if the Yankees' bats don't own him then they don't deserve to win.

On the other, other hand, Cliff Lee and Andy Pettitte pitch tonight, not AJ Burnett.  I'm not sure how confident I am in Andy Pettitte, there was a reason we were concerned about him in the ALDS, one start doesn't change everything.  Plus, for all the talk about Sabathia having "too much rest", why would that be a total non factor for Pettitte? If pedigree is worth anything I think we can expect Pettitte to not have Hughes-ian craptastic start,  but Yankee fans shouldn't expect a repeat of game 2 ALDS.  

The Yankees don't have to beat Cliff Lee to win this game, they just have to get him out of there after 6-7 innings, so they can beat the Darrens (Oliver and O'Day) and the rest of the Rangers suspect bullpen.  There's no chance the non-Feliz relievers can put up several perfect frames.  The Yankees pitching is kind of the opposite, I doubt the Rangers can score off of Joba (looked nasty in game 2)/Wood/Mo but Pettitte is a little suspect.  Whoever wins (I'll guess Yankees 5 Rangers 4) I think this will be the first good game of the series as game one shouldn't have have been so damn good.