2011 Cliff Lee, Where you at?

Pitchers that sign long terms deal to play for the Rangers do not, I repeat do not, tend to work out well for the team and the pitcher.

In 2002 Chan Ho Park signed a 5 year $65 million deal and in his 68 starts with the Rangers Park went 22-23 with a 5.79 ERA and a 84 ERA+.

In 2006 Kevin Millwood signed a 5 year $60 million deal and in his 125 starts with the Rangers Millwood went 48-46 with a 4.57 ERA and a 100 ERA+.

Neither pitcher finished playing out his contract for the Rangers.

Cliff Lee has pitched well in Cleveland, Philadelphia,
Seattle, and now Texas.  Where will he be in 2011?

Now, while I said long term deals with pitchers don't work out well for the Rangers, you can certainly bet that the Rangers will make an effort to sign Cliff Lee.  They wouldn't trade Justin Smoak for him and not try to resign him.  The real question then will be if Cliff Lee would like to spend the rest of his prime in the Texas heat.  Whether they lose tomorrow or win the World Series, at some point within the next month the Rangers are going to have played their last game this season  and Cliff Lee would have thrown his last pitch.  At that point everyone will be having their personal 'has Cliff Lee thrown his last pitch for the Rangers?' column, blog, or both speculating where he might sign.

I figured now would be as good a time as any to start mine (in this case a blog entry) which of course is completely different to Murray Chass' non-blog blog.

The latest rumor coming out of the Lee camp was that he was seeking "Sabathia type money".  While Cliff Lee certainly deserves the $20 million+ yearly salary that he'll inevitably get it's unlikely that Lee, as a 32 year old, would get a 7 year deal like his former teammate Sabathia. However, a 5 year deal at $20-25 million per seems like a (somewhat) reasonable deal*.  So, to start the rumors that leaves us with only a handful of teams that could even afford Lee, let alone have a reason to sign him.  Those teams would be:

• Yankees
• Red Sox
• Tigers
• Angels
• Mets
• Rangers 
• Nationals- They at least like to pretend they have a chance

* As hard as it is to believe that a contract with that much money can be deemed 'reasonable' I genuinely think it's true.  According to FanGraphs WAR, over the past 3 years only Roy Halladay has had more value and only Lincecum has had a lower FIP.  And when you convert Lee's WAR to dollar amounts he has been worth between $28-32.4 million.  Of course you'd be foolish to expect a GM to pay Cliff Lee that kind of money but it helps illustrate just how good Cliff Lee has been.  Also, even when you factor in a decline and the innate injury risk that pitchers face, those dollars are reasonable. 

Obviously some of those teams don't stand a chance to actually sign Lee.  He's not going to sign with the Nationals and spend his remaining years trying to help rebuild the ex-Expos.  The Mets need to figure out how to build around what they have, not add another expensive building block.  If the Red Sox wouldn't spend $10 million more for Mark Teixeira, I'm not sure they are going to want to be paying Lee, Beckett, and Lackey as they approach their mid 30's.  That leaves us with 4 teams who will be (realistically) fighting for Lee this offseason: the Yankees, Tigers, Angles, and Rangers.

Yankees: This one is a no brainer.  Some of the Yankee concerns regarding their rotation have been stupidly forgotten after the Twins Series, but make no mistake, the Yankees need and will acquire starting pitching this offseason.  As is usually the case, when the Yankees need something they get the best.  This year that means Cliff Lee.  

Rangers: Like I said, the Rangers wouldn't trade for Cliff Lee and not try to sign him.  They have new ownership and have a good, young foundation of a team at the major and minor league level.  

Tigers: They are pretty big spenders and they have a lot of money coming off the books: Magglio Ordonez ($18M), Jeremy Bonderman ($12.5M), Johnny Damon ($8M), Brandon Inge ($6.6M), Jhonny Peralta (buyout), and Gerald Laird ($3.25M).  The Tigers already have Verlander, Scherzer and Porcello and may look to improve the lineup which as of next year will have Miguel Cabrera, Austin Jackson and well that's about it.   But, they will have money to spend and some of that could be headed towards a guy like Lee

Angels: They are another big spender and are looking to revamp for 2011.  However, they will likely try to improve the lineup as well since they already have a packed rotation with trading deadline acquisition Dan Haren, Jered Weaver, Ervin Santana,  Joel Pineiro, and what remains of Scott Kazmir. 

So, now it really seems as though it's a race between the Yankees and the Rangers. If we go back to the "has Cliff Lee thrown his last pitch?" idea I think we'll find the likely answer.  The Yankees are going to be deeply involved in Cliff Lee negotiations no matter what, but the timing of Cliff Lee's last pitch may be the determining factor.  If the Rays win tonight or if the Rangers lose to the Yankees in the ALCS I think Cliff Lee will take the likely extra year and join the Yankees.  If the Rangers just make it to the World Series, win or lose, I think the Rangers will be able to keep Lee who will want to finish what he started.

The Phillies gave Roy Halladay a 3 year $60 million extension with a 4th year option when they acquired him last offseason at a similar age to Lee.  Halladay wasn't a Free Agent however, so anything lower than an annual $20 million salary won't be on the table.  Therefore, my guesses are:

Projected contract on Yankees: 5 years $110 million

Projected contract on Rangers: 4 years $96 million

Where do you think Cliff Lee will play in 2011, and for how much?