Award Predictions

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AL ROY:
There are really only 2 contenders for this, Texas Rangers closer Neftali Feliz and Detroit Tigers center fielder Austin Jackson.  Austin Jackson  fielded his position very well  and a .293/.340/.400 line is nothing to sneeze at even if it is BABIP influenced (.396).  Neftali Feliz had a sensational year at closer with 40 saves for a division winner, a 2.73 ERA and 71 strikeouts in 69 1/3 innings.  There is precedent for AL West closers winning the ROY, as Kaz Sasaki did in 2000 winning over 2nd place finisher Terrance Long.  Take a look at the similarities between Long and Jackson:

Austin Jackson 2010: .293/.340/.400 102 OPS+, 2.9 bWAR (baseball-reference WAR)
Terrance Long 2000:  .288/.336/.452, 101 OPS+, 2.8 bWAR

I would vote for Austin Jackson, I'd side with the every day player but unfortunately I think that Neftali Feliz will take it much like Sasaki did a decade ago.

NL ROY:

The owner of this card will be
wealthy one day.

Great battle, Jason Heyward vs. Buster Posey.  Luckily people vote before the playoffs because otherwise Heyward wouldn't have a chance with Posey leading the Giants to the World Series.  It's hard to blame the Giants for not calling up Posey sooner because they are as you know, playing in the World Series, but it's the difference in playing time that gives Heyward the edge.

Buster Posey was truly sensational this year putting up a .368 wOBA at the hardest position on the diamond leading to 3.9 fWAR (FanGraphs WAR) and 3.0 bWAR. But, he only played in 108 games with several of them at 1b.

Jason Heyward put up a .376 wOBA, played great defense in right and played in 142 games leading to an even 5.0 fWAR and 3.2 bWAR.

On a per game basis Buster Posey has been better, but Jason Heyward has played in significantly more games leading to him getting my vote.  I also think the voters will side with Heyward because they got it in their minds that he was the winner early on, and he did nothing to change their minds.

AL Cy Young:

Is it really my fault that Russell Branyan was
the best hitter on the team?

A lot of good and varied candidates here.  If you like ERA there is Felix Hernandez and his 2.27 Earned Run Average.  If you like wins CC Sabathia lead the league with 21.  If you like stirkeouts there is AL K leader Jered Weaver (233).  If you like a mix there is Jon Lester who finished with 19 wins (2nd) 225 strikeouts (225) or David Price who had 19 wins (2nd) and a 2.72 ERA (3rd).  Or if you are statistically inclined there is Cliff Lee and Francisco Liriano who finisehd 1st and 2nd respectively in FIP.

My vote  goes to the ERA leader (2.27) Felix Hernandez who also finished 2nd in strikeouts (just 1 shy of the leader), lead the league in innings pitched (249 2/3), and finished 4th in the league in FIP (3.04). The fact that he only had 13 wins does not really concern me.  Over the long haul, sure, a good pitcher is going to win games, but they are just too much a product of the team surrounding them.  Felix Hernandez had 13 wins and a 2.27 ERA, Phil Hughes had 18 wins and a 4.19 ERA.  In  Felix's starts the Mariners scored 3.1 runs a game, for Phil Hughes the Yankees scored 6.8 runs per game.  Judging by things in Felix's control, he was by any real measure the best pitcher in the league so he gets my vote.  As for what the voters will do, I think Lester/Price/Sabathia will hurt each others chances since there is no "one" alternative to Felix and therefore Felix Hernandez will sneak in a win.

NL Cy Young:
Another group of solid candidates: Roy Halladay, Adam Wainwright, Ubaldo Jiminez, Josh Johnson and if he didn't have a horrendous August, Tim Lincecum.   Adam Wainwright can give Roy a run for his money, but he gets my vote.  He lead the league in wins, innings pitched, finished 2nd in ERA and pretty much just dominated the JV for the entire year.  I could go into the more ins and outs of this, but I think everyone in the world is in agreement, Roy Halladay NL Cy Young winner.

AL MVP:
Last year Joe Mauer missed the first month of the season but played well enough while healthy to be deserving.  This year Josh Hamilton essentially missed all of September but was good enough from April till the end of August to deserve the award.  Playing in 133 games while batting .359/.411/.633 and playing a good outfield is good enough with me.  There are other qualified candidates, Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Evan Longoria, Adrian Beltre, and Jose Bautista, but Josh Hamilton's 5 months of greatness beats them all and it shows up in WAR too considering he lead the AL with 8.0 fWAR.

Lucky for Mr. Hamilton is his feel good story and the fact that he reached the 100 RBI plateau, reasons why the voters will choose him for AL MVP as well.

NL MVP:

"I already have 3 of these Joey, please
take one"

This one is a doozy.  At various points during the season there were 3 players who could have won the triple crown: Joey Votto, Carlos Gonzalez and Albert Pujols.  Plus, there were 2 other players who may be even more deserving of the award considering the positions they play and how well they played it: Troy Tulowitzki and Ryan Zimmerman.  If someone truly has a transcendent year I won't knock him for being on a bad team, much like the MVP doesn't state that a pitcher can't win, it doesn't state that the winner must come from a playoff team.   However, since there are so many, and equal, candidates in the NL, I'm going to side with Joey Votto, he on the division winning Reds.  It's not like he's undeserving either, he did lead the NL in FanGraphs version of Wins Above Replacement, OPS, wOBA or any other cumulative hitting statistic that you want to use.

If you think that Pujols should win (again), or if you value defense more and want to give it to Troy Tulowitzki or Ryan Zimmerman I won't argue with you, but for my money Joey Votto has been the best player, or most valuable rather, in the National League.  I also think the voters will agree.  CarGo and Tulo made a nice run in September but similar to how Heyward didn't do anything to have the voters change their minds, neither did Votto.