Before we start, as a preview to the preview, I think it'll be interesting to look at the 1999 Yankees and Rangers teams, which was the last time these guys met in the playoffs. Just look how good their lineups were back then:
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The only below average hitters for the Yankees were Scott Brosius (who was still great with the glove +7 UZR) and Jorge Posada who for a catcher still hit pretty well. For the Rangers Mark McLemore (at the time) was a capable 2b (you'll take 83 BBs at 2b all day) and Tom Goodwin was an OK defender, had great speed and in general wasn't really going to hurt a lineup like that. It should be no surprise then that these teams led the league in scoring (945 runs for the Rangers and 900 runs for the Yankees).*
*As a side note, can we all take a look at the year Jeter had in 1999. In 2006 there was a minor uproar about how Jeter deserved the MVP on the basis of his 97 RBI from the #2 spot in the lineup, how could Jeter then finish 6th(!!!!!) in the MVP voting on a year like that with 102 RBI-- if you're into that sort of thing. Jeter finished 2nd in the league in Baseball-Reference WAR (.3 behind Pedro when he was > G-d), batted .349, hit 24 home runs 37 doubles and 9 triples, and walked 91 times en route to a .438 OBP, at short stop! And don't you dare talk about his poor defense because beyond a few whispers nobody really mentioned his below-average defense, in fact people thought it was quite good.
You know who finished ahead of Jeter in MVP voting? Ivan Rodriguez (113 RBI) won the award, Pedro Martinez, Roberto Alomar (120 RBI), Manny Ramirez (165 RBI), and Rafael Palmeiro (148 RBI). Jeter had a better year than all of them (save Pedro) and played on the best team in the AL but finished 6th because he didn't have the gawdy RBI totals (even thought he still had 102). I'll give (a little) credit to the voters for voting a catcher first but Pudge's walks (or lack thereof- 24) mean more to me than his 35 homers and inflated SB numbers (25 Sb/12 CS). The frustrating part of all this is that in 1999 voters sided with the catcher but chose to ignore him in 2006 when Joe Mauer finished 6th (whaddya know!) behind Justin Morneau (nice RBI total only because he hit behind Mauer and his .429 OBP), Derek Jeter, David Ortiz (DH), Frank Thomas (DH), and Jermaine Dye (should be DH), eventhough Mauer led the league in WAR.
Of course the thing that separated these two teams, and what enabled the Yankees to sweep the Rangers, was pitching. The Rangers "ace" if you want to call it I guess would be Aaron Sele, 18-9 4.79 ERA, 107 ERA+. Followed by Rick Helling and his 13-11 record, 4.84 ERA and 106 ERA+ . After that, you could take your pick between John Burkett and Mike Morgan the better of which had an ERA north of 5 and 1/2. The Yankees on the other hand, while not having great pitching did give up over 100 fewer runs (859 runs allowed by Texas/ 731 for the Yankees) on the performances of playoff wizard Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez (17-9 4.12 ERA/115 ERA+ ), David Cone (12-9 3.44/137), Andy Pettitte (14-11 4.70/101), and Roger Clemens (14-10 4.60/103).*
*We should also remember that this was during the peak of the steroid era, many, many more runs were scored, duh. For instance, if we use a cool tool on Baseball-Reference and put Roger Clemens 1999 season into 2010 Yankee stadium, he'd have a 4.30 ERA. It's not great but it helps illustrate, along with the adjusted ERAs (ERA+), just how much offense was inflated back then.
ANYWAYS, the purpose of this post was to preview this years series, so let's get to it!
The Rangers are coming off a thrilling 5 game series with the Rays which required them to use their ace Cliff Lee in the decisive last game. While it isn't as big of a deal as people are making it seem, it in no way, shape or form can hurt the Yankees, especially since after their sweep of the Twins have the luxury of aligning their rotation as they want, which as of now looks like this:
*As a side note, can we all take a look at the year Jeter had in 1999. In 2006 there was a minor uproar about how Jeter deserved the MVP on the basis of his 97 RBI from the #2 spot in the lineup, how could Jeter then finish 6th(!!!!!) in the MVP voting on a year like that with 102 RBI-- if you're into that sort of thing. Jeter finished 2nd in the league in Baseball-Reference WAR (.3 behind Pedro when he was > G-d), batted .349, hit 24 home runs 37 doubles and 9 triples, and walked 91 times en route to a .438 OBP, at short stop! And don't you dare talk about his poor defense because beyond a few whispers nobody really mentioned his below-average defense, in fact people thought it was quite good.
You know who finished ahead of Jeter in MVP voting? Ivan Rodriguez (113 RBI) won the award, Pedro Martinez, Roberto Alomar (120 RBI), Manny Ramirez (165 RBI), and Rafael Palmeiro (148 RBI). Jeter had a better year than all of them (save Pedro) and played on the best team in the AL but finished 6th because he didn't have the gawdy RBI totals (even thought he still had 102). I'll give (a little) credit to the voters for voting a catcher first but Pudge's walks (or lack thereof- 24) mean more to me than his 35 homers and inflated SB numbers (25 Sb/12 CS). The frustrating part of all this is that in 1999 voters sided with the catcher but chose to ignore him in 2006 when Joe Mauer finished 6th (whaddya know!) behind Justin Morneau (nice RBI total only because he hit behind Mauer and his .429 OBP), Derek Jeter, David Ortiz (DH), Frank Thomas (DH), and Jermaine Dye (should be DH), eventhough Mauer led the league in WAR.
Of course the thing that separated these two teams, and what enabled the Yankees to sweep the Rangers, was pitching. The Rangers "ace" if you want to call it I guess would be Aaron Sele, 18-9 4.79 ERA, 107 ERA+. Followed by Rick Helling and his 13-11 record, 4.84 ERA and 106 ERA+ . After that, you could take your pick between John Burkett and Mike Morgan the better of which had an ERA north of 5 and 1/2. The Yankees on the other hand, while not having great pitching did give up over 100 fewer runs (859 runs allowed by Texas/ 731 for the Yankees) on the performances of playoff wizard Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez (17-9 4.12 ERA/115 ERA+ ), David Cone (12-9 3.44/137), Andy Pettitte (14-11 4.70/101), and Roger Clemens (14-10 4.60/103).*
*We should also remember that this was during the peak of the steroid era, many, many more runs were scored, duh. For instance, if we use a cool tool on Baseball-Reference and put Roger Clemens 1999 season into 2010 Yankee stadium, he'd have a 4.30 ERA. It's not great but it helps illustrate, along with the adjusted ERAs (ERA+), just how much offense was inflated back then.
ANYWAYS, the purpose of this post was to preview this years series, so let's get to it!
The Rangers are coming off a thrilling 5 game series with the Rays which required them to use their ace Cliff Lee in the decisive last game. While it isn't as big of a deal as people are making it seem, it in no way, shape or form can hurt the Yankees, especially since after their sweep of the Twins have the luxury of aligning their rotation as they want, which as of now looks like this:
- Game 1 NYY @ TEX: CC Sabathia v. CJ Wilson
- Game 2 NYY @ TEX: Phil Hughes vs. Colby Lewis
- Game 3 TEX @ NYY: Andy Pettitte vs. Cliff Lee
- Game 4 TEX @ NYY: AJ Burnett vs. Tommy Hunter
Sabathia obviously will start game one and while AJ Burnett will have to pitch a game this series, I'm not sold on him actually pitching game 4. If the Yankees are down 3-0 or even 2-1 in the series will they really let their season fall on the (right) shoulder of AJ Burnett? Of course not, they'll throw Sabathia on short rest However, if the reverse is true, and the Yankees are leading the series than Burnett will definitely start.
Back to game one: Rangers lefty CJ Wilson has made a pretty remarkable turn around from a solid left-handed reliever to a pretty darn good starter. He pitched well all season with a 3.56 FIP (FIP is fielding independent pitching which measures only what a pitcher can controlled and is scaled to look like ERA) and quieted the Rays bats in game 2 of the ALDS. However, Wilson's 5.3% homerun to fly ball ratio is likely unsustainable (~10% is average) which leads to a less than impressive 4.20 xFIP (FIP adjusted to a league average HR/FB%). Wilson also led the league in walks which against a team like the Yankees can lead to a lot of trouble. It'll be imperative for CJ Wilson to limit his walks, because if the Yankees can turn the game over to the underbelly of the Rangers bullpen, this one can get ugly fast. Sabathia didn't look too impressive in his first start against the Twins in the ALDS (6 ip 3 er) but that's closer to the minimum of what to expect out of Black Sabbath.
Andy Pettitte pitched game 2 against the Twins but against the Rangers Girardi is going with Hughes. As far as I can tell there are 2 reasons for this:
- Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. In 15.1 innings at Texas Hughes has given up 3 hits (all doubles) 4 walks, and struck out 13 all without allowing a run.
- Andy Pettitte. By pitching Hughes in game 2, Andy Pettitte and his experience will pitch game 7, if necessary.
The first reason is irrelevant to me, a start in 2007 and a start in 2009 in a ballpark that is worse for pitchers than Yankee Stadium (new or old) just isn't nearly enough evidence to suggest Hughes "pitches well" down there in Texas. However, the 2nd reason is enough justification for me. Contrary to what you might believe, Pettitte isn't really anything "special" in the postseason. He has a career 3.88 ERA in the regular season and a 3.87 ERA in the postseason. His lofty win total (19) in many chances (41) on a great team like the Yankees skew his reputation a bit, he's a very good post season pitcher but he should not be mentioned in the same breath as say Curt Schilling or John Smoltz when you are talking about the decades best post season pitchers. With all of that said, having Andy Pettitte lined up to face Cliff Lee in games 3 and 7 is still the right decision. While I still think there is a good chance that Sabathia can pitch 3 games in this thing, going with Pettitte over Hughes in a potential game 7 is the smart move.
Back to game 2 for a second, Hughes faces off against Colby Lewis who has had such an underrated season that it's not underrated any longer. His 12-13 record doesn't do him justice as he has a pretty tidy 3.73 ERA/3.55 FIP/3.93 xFIP. This obviously isn't the same guy that pitched for the Rangers from 2002-2004. The one knock against Lewis against the Yankees would be his fly ball percentage. Almost 45% of the balls hit off of Lewis are hit in the air, and against the Yankees that could pose some problems. However, he's also facing Phil Hughes who himself is a fly ball pitcher (over 47%). Hughes has a great 18-8 record, but he's been the beneficiary of great run support all season. Hughes had a great April and May but struggled since June. He did look great against the Twins but from the naked eye it seemed like they were swinging through some hittable pitches. Maybe Hughes' cutter is that good, but against the Rangers in Texas I'd be a little worried that some of those high fastballs will be hit hard in the air.
On to game 4. As I mentioned above, I'm not sold on Burnett pitching game 4 if the Yankees are behind in the series. Nevertheless, as bad as he has been he's facing Tommy Hunter at home. Hunter's 3.73 ERA and 13-4 record looks nice and shiny, especially compared to Burnett's losing record and 5.28 ERA but take a look at the underlying numbers.
Hunter: 4.78 k/9, 2.32 bb/9, 80.7% LOB, .264 BABIP, 4.99 FIP, 4.70 xFIP
Burnett: 6.99 k/9, 3.76 bb/9, 66% LOB, .319 BABIP, 4.83 FIP, 4.66 xFIP
If you took a look at those numbers and not their individual records or earned run averages, which pitcher would you think was better? The answer would have to be Burnett. I must say that I wouldn't be confident in AJ Burnett, but there is a reason he is scheduled to face Tommy Hunter and not Wilson, Lewis, or Lee. Maybe Burnett has been sooooo bad this year you refuse to believe he's actually better than Tommy Hunter. Fine. I won't make a huge argument against that, but I'd still say it's a wash, and in the grand scheme of things having Burnett pitch in this series isn't the end of the world for the Yankees.
So do these guys hit?
The answer for both teams would have to be a yes, except don't be fooled into thinking that the Rangers can swing with the Yankees right now. The reason for that is Josh Hamilton's health, or lack thereof. For proof read what Will@IIAMS said about Hamilton and Rangers:
Back to game 2 for a second, Hughes faces off against Colby Lewis who has had such an underrated season that it's not underrated any longer. His 12-13 record doesn't do him justice as he has a pretty tidy 3.73 ERA/3.55 FIP/3.93 xFIP. This obviously isn't the same guy that pitched for the Rangers from 2002-2004. The one knock against Lewis against the Yankees would be his fly ball percentage. Almost 45% of the balls hit off of Lewis are hit in the air, and against the Yankees that could pose some problems. However, he's also facing Phil Hughes who himself is a fly ball pitcher (over 47%). Hughes has a great 18-8 record, but he's been the beneficiary of great run support all season. Hughes had a great April and May but struggled since June. He did look great against the Twins but from the naked eye it seemed like they were swinging through some hittable pitches. Maybe Hughes' cutter is that good, but against the Rangers in Texas I'd be a little worried that some of those high fastballs will be hit hard in the air.
On to game 4. As I mentioned above, I'm not sold on Burnett pitching game 4 if the Yankees are behind in the series. Nevertheless, as bad as he has been he's facing Tommy Hunter at home. Hunter's 3.73 ERA and 13-4 record looks nice and shiny, especially compared to Burnett's losing record and 5.28 ERA but take a look at the underlying numbers.
Hunter: 4.78 k/9, 2.32 bb/9, 80.7% LOB, .264 BABIP, 4.99 FIP, 4.70 xFIP
Burnett: 6.99 k/9, 3.76 bb/9, 66% LOB, .319 BABIP, 4.83 FIP, 4.66 xFIP
If you took a look at those numbers and not their individual records or earned run averages, which pitcher would you think was better? The answer would have to be Burnett. I must say that I wouldn't be confident in AJ Burnett, but there is a reason he is scheduled to face Tommy Hunter and not Wilson, Lewis, or Lee. Maybe Burnett has been sooooo bad this year you refuse to believe he's actually better than Tommy Hunter. Fine. I won't make a huge argument against that, but I'd still say it's a wash, and in the grand scheme of things having Burnett pitch in this series isn't the end of the world for the Yankees.
So do these guys hit?
The answer for both teams would have to be a yes, except don't be fooled into thinking that the Rangers can swing with the Yankees right now. The reason for that is Josh Hamilton's health, or lack thereof. For proof read what Will@IIAMS said about Hamilton and Rangers:
Rangers fans, are you reading? Shield your eyes…because this is ugly. Take away Hamilton’s contributions on the season (well, make him league average–which it’s not clear he even is, in his injured state), and the Rangers wOBA drops from .333 to .322–roughly on par with the Royals (even before adjusting for park effects, as the Rangers benefited greatly from playing half their games in Arlington). I’m not going try to get any more precise than this, but I can say pretty clearly that unless Hamilton starts hitting like a semblance of his healthy self, the Rays are a much better offensive team than the Rangers.
That about sums it up. Also, when you factor in that Hamilton was just 2/18 with 6 strikeouts in the ALDS and that manager Ron Washington himself has doubted if Hamilton is 100% healthy, it pretty much assures us that Hamilton isn't himself, and when he's not himself the Rangers just don't have a great lineup. Without an effective Hamilton the Yankees are better at every position except for RF where Nelson Cruz has been slightly better than Nick Swisher this year.
Of course there are other matchups to look at with each team throwing out 2 lefties a piece. How Marcus Thames does against lefties Wilson and Lee will be a factor. Also, The Twins lineup wasn't as suited to face-off against the Yankees lefties as well as the Rangers are as you can read here. The Rangers played small ball against the Rays in game 5, it'll be interesting to see if Andrus gets on if he will have the go against Jorge Posada who is pretty adept at throwing out runners. However, even with that said, while the Yankees will have a little tougher time getting the Rangers out than they did the Twins, the Yankees still have the (far) superior lineup.
To conclude, the Rangers have had a really nice year but I think it ends here, Sabathia will win fairly easily tonight setting the tone for the entire series. Cliff Lee could, and should win every game he pitches, but unfortunately for the Rangers I don't think he will be able to pitch more than game 3. Cliff Lee only pitching once is not the reason why the Rangers will lose the series, (the non-Lee pitchers still have to win games regardless). I just think that the Yankees are just too balanced and too good of a team. Yankees in 6.
Of course there are other matchups to look at with each team throwing out 2 lefties a piece. How Marcus Thames does against lefties Wilson and Lee will be a factor. Also, The Twins lineup wasn't as suited to face-off against the Yankees lefties as well as the Rangers are as you can read here. The Rangers played small ball against the Rays in game 5, it'll be interesting to see if Andrus gets on if he will have the go against Jorge Posada who is pretty adept at throwing out runners. However, even with that said, while the Yankees will have a little tougher time getting the Rangers out than they did the Twins, the Yankees still have the (far) superior lineup.
To conclude, the Rangers have had a really nice year but I think it ends here, Sabathia will win fairly easily tonight setting the tone for the entire series. Cliff Lee could, and should win every game he pitches, but unfortunately for the Rangers I don't think he will be able to pitch more than game 3. Cliff Lee only pitching once is not the reason why the Rangers will lose the series, (the non-Lee pitchers still have to win games regardless). I just think that the Yankees are just too balanced and too good of a team. Yankees in 6.
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