1. Yankees: Maybe (and very likely) I'm just a dumb homer, but the more I looked at all the teams the more I realized the Yankees are still pretty damn good. Their lineup is unparalleled. They can hit any pitch, they walk the 2nd most in the majors and have the 3rd highest ISO all without striking out more than league average (hard to do). Their team wOBA (which takes into consideration basically everything a hitter does scaled to look like OBA where league average is ~.330) is .347. To put that into a more comprehensible context the Yankees are a lineup full of JD Drews, Bobby Abreus, and Curtis Grandersons (this year). That may not sound too impressive until you realize that the next best hitting team (the Reds) are essentially a lineup of Adam LaRoches and the other teams are closer to a lineup of Adam Joneses.
And while their starting pitching is questionable, it's not like the other (non Phillies) teams have several aces. Andy Pettitte's health is crucial but Sabathia can match any ace and Pettitte and Hughes are comparable with the other teams #2 and #3 starters, especially when you factor in the Yankees huge advantage in hitting. Let's not forget the advantage the Yankees have of using CC on short rest. He's done it before and he'll do it again. If the Yankees can maximize Sabathia it'll help mitigate their concerns regarding the rotation. Plus, they have that guy named Mo closing games for them. For more, here is the FanGraphs assessment of their rotation.
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2. Phillies: They have the Big 3 and should be able to go to the World Series (again) with (relative) ease. Also, while their lineup isn't as good as people may perceive, it's still solid. Teams are going to struggle to score against their rotation, no doubt, but the AL teams have a seemingly in ordinate amount of good lefties to help spell the Phillies lefty heavy lineup. The Yankees have Sabathia/Pettitte, the Twins have Liriano and Duensing, the Rays have David Price, and the Rangers have Cliff Lee and CJ Wilson. That doesn't mean that the Phillies automatically get shut down by lefties, but while people are right to assume their rotation gives them a big advantage, it doesn't mean that the Phillies are the automatic favorites. For more, here is the FanGraphs assessment of their rotation.
3. Twins: These guys are really underrated. Lost in the shuffle with the Yankees and Rays and the Phillies rotation is the team that has no weakness. Unfortunately Justin Morneau won't play this postseason, but the Twins still have as good a shot as any to win. When I say they have no weakness I mean it. They may not have big names at every position but they are literally above average everywhere. Everyone in their lineup either can hit, field or do both. They have 3 guys who can close and they have a handful of #3 starters to throw behind one of the top starters in the league in Francisco Liriano (MLB leader in FIP). For more, here is the FanGraphs assessment of their rotation.
4. Rays: The Rays have been great all year and you could argue that they are the best team. However, in terms of the playoffs I'm not (sooooooooo) sold. This one is hard. Very hard. I love David Price, and their pitching depth has been remarkable for the regular season, I just don't think that it will be (as) dominant in a playoff series. James Shields cannot pitch in Yankee Stadium or in Texas, Matt Garza (although he literally has 'no-hit' stuff) is somewhat overrated (4.42 FIP, career low k/9, career worst k/bb), Jeff Niemann is kind of banged up, and Wade Davis is a good young pitcher with potential, but he's not quite there yet. Now, I don't mean to say that the Rays have a bad rotation, far from it. It's just that there rotation strength is more for a long season, not a playoff series.
The Rays are an excellent team, they pitch, hit and field and I wouldn't be surprised if they won the whole damn thing, I just thing they are a tad worse than the teams above him, maybe 2%? It should also be noted that I think the difference between the 1st and 4th teams here is smaller than the difference between the Rays and Rangers. The top 4 teams are that close. For more, here is the FanGraphs assessment of their rotation.
5. Rangers: Nolan Ryan and co. (literally, because he owns them) have done an admirable job putting together a pitching staff for the Rangers. Signing Colby Lewis and converting CJ Wilson to a starter gave the Rangers a solid #2 and #3 starter for essentially nothing. Then they brought in Cliff Lee without hurting their major league roster. It goes without say that the Rangers can hit, they always do, it's just now that they have a staff to go along with it, making them a formidable team. However, they are not without weakness. Although their hitting is good, the Rangers reputation may exceed the results.
First and most importantly is Josh Hamilton, even with his missed time he's a viable MVP. It's absolutely crucial however, that he not miss any more time. If he's healthy the Rangers have a great offense, if he's not their offense is good, but not great. Secondly, guys like Michael Young and Elvis Andrus (even with just 2 years under his belt) carry more reputation than production. Michael Young is no longer the all-star .300+ hitting SS, he's a light hitting bad fielding 3b. And Elvis Andrus, who was an exciting rookie last year, has taken a step back this year both offensively and defensively. I don't mean to say the Rangers will struggle to score runs, they won't, they still have Nelson Cruz, and Vladdy, I'm just saying if the Rangers go anywhere it will be because of Cliff Lee and the strength of their rotation. For more, here is the FanGraphs assessment of their rotation.
6. Giants: Beast Rotation + Waiver Wire pickups + Stud Rookie = NL West Champs. That's the Giants formula and it'd be hard to repeat but it did get them in this year. While Lincecum isn't what he once was, there is no doubt the Giants have a stud rotation. Lincy, Cain and Sanchez are all solidly above average pitchers and can (almost) matchup against the Phillies Big Three. However, there lineup is, for lack of a better word, DECE. Buster Posey is a ROY candidate, Andres Torres is a great story, Aubrey Huff's resurgence has been fun to watch, plucking Burrell of off waivers has helped a lot, Cody Ross has been usable... BUT nobody really scares you. Not that you need to be so "feared" like Jim Rice, it's just the Giants have some pretty average hitting.
In the NL West with a solid rotation all the winner had to do this year was patch together a lineup and secure leads. The Giants did this slightly better than the 2nd place Padres, which got them the division win, but likely won't help them go deep into the playoffs. For more, here is the FanGraphs assessment of their rotation.
7. Braves: The Braves are a good team but compared to the best they just aren't that great. I'm ranking them above the Reds because their pitching is better but still, when you check out the rotation it just doesn't seem that good. They are kind of similar to the Rays in that having 4 or 5 average to above-average guys all year in the rotation really helps but in the playoffs you need more star power. Derek Lowe pitching 190+ innings of pretty solid ball keeps you in games, saves the pen, and in general is very good for a team. But in a playoff matchup, it's just not that intimidating. So, while as a whole throughout the season the Braves have had one of the best pitching staffs (bullpen included), their top starter would only rank about 6th in just the National League Playoff teams. *
The rotation isn't even the problem either. How will they score runs? Heyward is a total beast and may be the best player in baseball in less than 3 years, but relying on a 21 year old to carry your lineup in the playoffs just isn't a recipe for success. The Braves are lucky that Wild Card's can't play their division rivals, so maybe they can do their smoke and mirrors act successfully in a short series against the Giants, but beyond that I can't see them having any post season success. It must also be mentioned how good Billy Wagner has been this year. Although his playoff career has been kinda horrid, I think it's safe to say he won't be blowing too many saves in the postseason. He has been simply phenomenal: 1.43 ERA, 2.10 FIP, 104 Ks in 69.1 IP. For more, here is the FanGraphs assessment of their rotation.
*FYI I would rank them the following:
1) Halladay
2) Lincecum (has looked great in September to get back on track-ish)
3) Oswalt
4) Cain
5) Hamels
6) Hanson
7) Hudson
8) Sanchez
9) Cueto
10) Lowe
8. Reds: I like their team, I really do, but they'll be lucky to take even a game from the Phillies. Cueto, Bailey and Volquez are great young pitchers to build around but they just don't stack up against an ace, and the Phillies have 3 of those. Votto is an MVP and they have a terrific lineup but their rotation has too much implode potential, and that just doesn't work in the playoffs where you need to stay in the ball game. I have/had no qualms about bringing up Aroldis Chapman as a reliever but wouldn't he be more effective (for the Reds) if he was made to go 2-3 innings rather than just 1? I'm no expert on pitching injuries (pitching 2-3 innings at a time may increase Chapman's risk of injury) but how dangerous would having a shut down reliever for 2 or more innings be? It likely won't happen often, but it's possible that during one of these games the Reds find themselves up a run or two after 5 innings. In that case, rather than have Arroyo face hitters for a 3rd time or bring in a middling reliever, the Reds could theoretically bring in Chapman against a lefty heavy lineup for 2 innings then hand the ball over to the 8th and 9th inning guys.
If the starting rotation doesn't hold up that's one thing, but if Logan Ondrusek blows the game in the 6th while Chapman waits for the late innings, the Reds will be forced to kick themselves in the buttocks. For more, here is the FanGraphs assessment of their rotation.
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