2011 Zack Greinke, Where You At?

Zack Greinke is a great pitcher, the Royals are a bad team.  They do, however, have a loaded farm system as Dayton Moore's three five year plan is starting to bear some fruits. Greinke doesn't seem too impressed though having said in August:

"There's no reason for me to get real excited about it because the chance of more than one of them making a major impact by the time my contract is up is pretty slim."

The Royals initially said that they weren't going to trade Greinke but that has changed as they are now "listening to offers" and the reasoning could be that pesky contract that Greinke talks about.  Greinke signed a very reasonable 4 year $38M extension in 2009 but now it's starting to get expensive as he's due $13.5M in 2011 and 2012.  $13.5M is still paying Greinke less than the value he will likely give you, but on a team that won't be competing next year or in 2012 and with no chance to resigning him, the prospects may be more valuable to the Royals.  Just search "Zack Greinke"on MLBTradeRumors.com  and you're bound to find rumors swirling, I figured I'd take the time now to see what teams might be interested in acquiring Greinke:

Yankees: Shocker!  If they can't sign Cliff Lee (unlikely, although if the Rangers go to the World Series he may want to stay) the Yankees may turn their attention towards Greinke since the rest of the free agent starters are, for lack of a better word, dece.  If the Royals ask for Montero I think the Yankees hang up, but Montero isn't their only valuable minor league player and the Royals have their own catching prospect (Wil Myers) as well as 1b prospect (Eric Hosmer).  Matt Hagen, at Hardball Times, recently ranked the Yankees top 10 prospects and 3 of the top 5 are pitchers, something the Royals would want.  The Yankees could offer the Royals 2 of their Killer B pitchers Banuelos/Betances/Brackman and then another piece like young catcher Gary Sanchez or young toolsy OF Slade Heathcott.  Moreover, while I don't think the Yankees would want to trade Brett Gardner, if it "opened" up a spot for Carl Crawford, I don't think the Yankees would be too unhappy.

Tigers: As I said in my Cliff Lee 2011 post, the Tigers have a lot of money coming off the books and will likely be looking to reload this year.  They already have a nice, young promising rotation (Verlander/Sherzer/Porcello) and may not want to trade Greinke within the division, but enough pieces fit (top prospects are ptichers Jacob Turner and Casey Crosby) where the Tigers might try to grab him.

Red Sox: Wherever the Yankees are rumored the Red Sox can't be too far behind.  They came into this year with great starting pitching but John Lackey looks more and more like AJ Burnett (meaning overpaid starter in his 30s) and Josh Beckett doesn't quite look like someone who will age too well.  Getting a guy like Greinke to pair with Lester and Buchholz would give the Red Sox 3 legitimate good-great starters and when combined with Beckett/Lackey/Dice K, that gives them 6 more than capable rotation guys.  The Red Sox top prospect is pitcher Casey Kelly and maybe pairing him with young SS Jose Iglesias (who can't be much worse than Yuniesky Betancourt in the majors, right now) could get a deal done.

Mariners: This situation seems eerily similar to last year when another ace was put on the market, Cliff Lee.  The Mariners may not want to try to reload again this offseason, and likely won't want to part with prospects Dustin Ackley or Michael Pineda, but if Jack Z can get another ace for less than market price they may make a deal. Or maybe it's just wishful thinking for a fantasy owner of Greinke...

Reds: Although the Reds couldn't get a hit off of Roy Halladay, it's their rotation, not their lineup that will need improvement if they wish to advance further in the 2011 postseason.  Starters Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Travis Wood, Mike Leake, Aroldis Chapman (hoping he gets a shot in the rotation), and Homer Bailey have plenty of potential, but neither is an "ace".  Plus, since there are so many of them, the Reds could offer one along with 1b/LF Yonder Alonso (who has no place on the Reds) in a deal for Greinke.  It'd give the Royals a MLB ready starter with potential and a position player who could play for the 2011 Royals.

Mets: The Mets may have the best formula for a possible trade= Deep farm system + Need for pitching + Borderline competitive.  With Greinke and a little luck in the health/recovery department (Bay/Beltran/Reyes), the Mets could be a pretty good team, and in the NL that may be enough.  The Mets may not want to party with Jenry (pronounced Henry) Mejia, but they have a lot of solid prospects in the low minors, not near MLB-ready which isn't (as) useful to a team trying to compete.  I can see a deal centered around teenager IF Wilmer Flores and solid-but-not-spectacular pitchers in the lower minors getting a deal done.

It should be noted that based on the Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay deals, it requires about 3 top 10 prospects from a team to get an ace pitcher. Lee and Halladay were certainly better pitchers than Greinke but they are  much older (Greinke only 27!) and more expensive -- Halladay and Lee only had one more year left, Greinke has two.  Also, don't let Greinke's near 4.00 ERA fool you, he's an ace pitcher-- over the past 3 years only Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Tim Lincecum have had more WAR than Greinke.  Pretty good company right?