Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Potential Free Agent Bargains

In the upcoming weeks and months the majority of baseball talk will involve Free Agency, and rightfully so.  However, rather than always talk about Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, and Derek Jeter, let's take some time to talk about some lesser names who can provide great value to whoever picks them up.

Koji Uehara: He's not that under the radar, FanGraphs mentioned him as an "enticing" option and Jeff Passan ranks him 37th on his FA List, but he's still worth talking about.  The Japanese import was both a starter and a closer in Japan and has done both for the Orioles in his 2 years there.  Although he showed some potential in the rotation he's been much more effective (and healthier) in the bullpen.  In 44.1 relief innings this year Uehara struck out 55 and only walked 5.  With other more established (or more well known) relievers like Grant Balfour, Kerry Wood, Scott Downs, and Brian Fuentes, Uehara might be the bargain and have the best results in 2011.  The Yankees may focus on bringing back Wood since he was dominant for them in his short stint there, but Uehara would be a great fit.  

Magglio Ordonez/Manny Ramirez:  Last year Vladamir Guerrero and Jim Thome were bargain DHs, this year it's time for Magglio and Manny to bring in good value.  Both of these guys, like Vlad and Thome, have injury concerns and only AL teams should apply as neither have any business playing in the field.   Even in their injured 2009 and 2010 seasons these guys have done fairly well, Maggs can hit .300 in his sleep and Manny is still an OBP machine.  Having played in only 84 and 90 games this year, Ordonez and Ramirez should come pretty cheap and should help AL offenses in need of a bat.   The A's, Rangers, Twins, Rays, White Sox, Tigers, and Angels all have DH spots open and I expect these 2 guys to find a spot and rake.


Lance Berkman/Hideki Matsui: Everything I said above could be said about these 2 guys except they come with a little less fan fare, and likely a smaller contract.  Berkman may have lost some power, but channeling his inner Brian Giles (i.e. OBP machine) is still helpful especially considering he could play some OF and 1b occasionally.  Matsui doesn't have as much potential as these other DHs (if there is sucha thing for aging ex-All-Stars) but he's essentially a lock for an OPS 20% better than the league average, which as the White Sox found out, is better than Mark Kotsay.  

Pedro Feliciano: He has a rubber arm (leading the NL in appearances the last 3 years 86, 88, and 92 games) and is great against lefties.  The Mets were foolish to have him pitch to righties so often (29.2 innings, 40 hits, 20 walks) which makes him seem like he's worse than he is, giving him potential bargain status.  Every year at the trading deadline contending teams are looking to sure up their bullpen, often lacking a lefty option smart teams should look to snag up Feliciano now rather than give up a prospect for JC Romero in July.

Jarrod Washburn: In a NL pitchers park Jarrod Washburn could provide good value.  Jarrod Washburn is a pitch to contact fly ball pitcher (career 5.33 k/9 and 43% FB%) which in certain places is awful (i.e. AL) but put him in a big park with a good defense in the National League and he could pitch reasonably well.  Signing him for anything more than a couple of million would be stupid, but there is value in having a lot of innings, even if it's a 5.00 xFIP, people tend to underestimate how valuable back-end healthy starters are.   I could see a team like the Padres letting another team overpay for Jon Garland and then throw Jarrod Washburn on the hill once a week, allowing them to keep their younger pitchers develop in the minors until they are really ready.  

Jose Contreras: His days of starting are over, but in the bullpen Contreras found his control and was really productive.  A 39 year old coming off of one year of relief experience can't really ask for too much loot, especially when there are so many other FA relieving options.  It's possible a team can get ace set-up production at washed up starter pricing.  

Hisanori Takahashi: Like Uehara, this is another Japanese Import whose found real success in the bullpen.  Closing for the Mets at the end of the year Takahashi had a 1.32 ERA in 27.1 innings from August on.  Overall, as a starter he had a 5.01 ERA and in the bullpen it was 2.04.   His bad run as a starter may  drop down his price tag giving teams a quality bullpen arm. 

Jeremy Bonderman: This one is just a hunch more than anything, but a common theme here if you haven't noticed is that pitchers do a lot better in the bullpen.  Sure, in the right situation with the right amount of luck Bonderman could be a respectable 5th starter, but I believe throwing $1.5M his way and telling him to move to the bullpen could provide nice dividends.  Bonderman has a similar fastball/slider pitch selection as Contreras, and could get his velocity up in a relief role and maybe up his production as well.

The expensive guys will make the headlines but it's often these under-the-radar pickups that can alter a race. 2010 was a prime example of this as Aubrey Huff, Vlad Guerrero, Jim Thome, and Jon Garland all had great years for good teams at discount prices.

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