Question: The World Series is over, the scars have healed, it's time to talk about the Yankees again, specifically their offseason plans. What would you like the Yankees to do this offseason?
Steve: Well, let's take a look at the World Champion Giants and see how they did and just copy. So we'll need to shed a hundred million in payroll, wait til the trade deadline to start molding a competitive roster and ride our two twenty-five-year-old aces to the title. And let's start filing that paper work to get us transferred to the NL West. Oh.. and sorry, Derek, but we're gonna have to bump you to the bench for Edgar Renteria.
I kid. Let's actually not freak out because I don't think it'll take much work to get back to where we were. The first, and most obvious, move is going to be to go after Cliff Lee. Yankee fans should be convinced at this point that the guy is gonna be worth every cent and we don't want him anywhere but on our side. Just imagine CC and Cliff going 1-2 in the playoffs.
Even with Lee, I can see the Yanks going after another starter to sure up the back of the rotation. Pettitte can't be counted on to come back and play a full season. Burnett stinks. Vazquez is already out the door. Unless a young gun can take the next step before April, I'd keep an eye on talks with less than premier free agent pitchers. Westbrook? Millwood? Are these the best guys available?
The catching situation is getting scary, too. Cervelli is a real blemish in the lineup and he's only gonna be picking up more AB's while a creaky Posada accumulates new injuries. Montero, please come soon! I can see someone like John Buck splitting duties with Cervelli. Then in five years he'll join Singleton and Leiter in the booth.
Jeff: I honestly don't think there is too much to work on with this team. Would adding Cliff Lee be nice? Of course it would. And if the Yankees add Cliff Lee to the rotation, I don't see any team putting up much of a fight against the Yanks if/when they make the playoffs next year. But is it 100% crucial that we sign him? I don't think so. Sabathia was good, Pettitte was good (I really really hope that he comes back next season). Hughes was okay, and will hopefully be better next season. Burnett is a question mark as always, but I have this feeling deep in my gut that he'll be closer to what he was the first season than what he was this season.
Where did the Yankees go wrong? Their bullpen stunk up the joint, particularly against the Rangers. And what made it worse is that the bullpen made ascertainable games completely out of reach. What do the Yankees need to do for their pen? First, re-sign Kerry Wood. I don't care what kind of money he is asking for, but a 2-3 year contract as our setup man is warranted (if he'll accept that role). Robertson melted down in the ALCS, but I'm still on his bandwagon, but let's push him to the 6th inning guy. What does that leave for the 7th inning? Scott Downs. Throw a big wad of cash at this guy, let him be the 7th, or even setup. It gives the bullpen a second left handed arm, and can relegate Boone Logan to a more lefty specialist role. Can Joaquin Benoit repeat what he did for the Rays this season? If he can, bring him in! Can Jose Contreras be an effective guy out of the bullpen when he re-dons the pinstripes? Bring him in too. What also helped the Giants this season, and in the postseason, was a very effective bullpen, particularly Sergio Romo and Jerremy Affelt setting up the insane, and best NL Closer Brian Wilson.
If the Yanks add a couple of sure-handed arms to the bullpen, I am comfortable with the rotation as is. Would Cliff Lee be nice? Yes. Do we crucially need him? This fan doesn't think so.
Oh yeah, there's also our offense. It's aging, and fast. Jeter and Rodriguez were non-existent during the postseason, and if not for a resurgent Curtis Granderson and always strong Cano our offense would have been completely non-existent. I have heard rumors about Nick Swisher being traded... don't let this happen. He's fun for the fans in right field, and isn't so much of a liability that he needs to be booted from the outfield. The problem is DH. Is Posada going to DH? I foresee him catching about 60% of the games. For the other 40%, or better yet what if we want to make Posada the every day DH... who fills the gap? I don't think Montero is ready, catching ability-wise. And we don't want him to be the everyday DH because Posada can't catch 100% of the games. So who does that leave? Cervelli? A free agent from a weak pool? Cashman will figure it out. I say bring in a cheap defensive minded FA, my choice would be AJ Pierzynski.
So there you have it. Sign bullpen arms up the wazoo, keep the rotation as is (or maybe bring in a cheap FA starter for the #5), and bring in a catcher like Pierzynski to let Posada worry about DHing. Do all of this, and I foresee the Yankees returning to the promised land in 2011.
Ben: I'm glad I don't agree with you guys, because it would be rather boring to repeat what ya'll (that's me giving the Rangers some credit) have said.
I'll start with the catching situation. If ya'll (more credit) didn't know already, Posada is going to prepare to catch as usual but the plan now is to have him be the primary DH while the youngins (Montero, Romine, Cervelli) battle it out for 2 catching spots. Unless Montero has an epic failure in March, the Yankees are going to join the Orioles, Indians, Giants in the young-catcher-future-all-star group. The Yankees catching situation was about as bad as it could get and it didn't really adverselyeffect their team all that much. So I'm actually not all that scared about it. Plus, if I was scared about it I don't think names like John Buck or AJ Pierzynski would ease my concerns. Jesus has arrived, I think we should be excited, not worried.
I agree that the Yankees should sign a reliever or two, but I'm not really concerned which one. Sure it'd be nice to have Kerry Wood, he looked damn good for us, but it's not a do or die scenario. There are plenty of relievers available and I think the Yankees would be smart to sign both a lefty and a righty. Now, this isn't because the Yankees bullpen is bad, Mariano, Joba, Robertson and Loogan as a LOOGY is a pretty darn good start, it's just cause the Yankees can afford to throw some money at few guys. Giving 3 mill at Koji Uehara to see if he if the could be healthy for a full year while relieving and signing Feliciano as another lefty option is a risk worth taking. Relying on Kerry Wood to fulfill 3 years of a contract is silly, especially when there are so many guys available to choose from that won't require that much of a commitment: Joaquin Benoit, Jon Rauch, JJ Putz, Koji Uehara, Hisanori Takahashi, Grant Balfour, Jesse Crain, and what the hell, Rich Harden a future Kerry Wood.
As far as the rotation goes the Yankees only have 4 starters, and that's assuming Pettitte comes back. The Yankees need a starter, and someone good. Their #2 starter just threw more innings than he has in his career, their #3 starter, if he returns, will be 39 coming of an injured season and their #4 starter no longer has the same stuff he used to have to go with his horrendous control. So, yea the Yankees kind of need someone like Lee, and unfortunately it'll cost them a lot, because he's the only good starter available. After Lee the list of free agent starters looks like this: Carl Pavano, Hiroki Kuroda, Jake Westbrook, Jorge de la Rosa, Javy Vazquez, and Brad Penny. That's 2 failed ex-Yankees and a bunch of decent aging NL pitchers, and that's the best of what's available. One way or another the Yankees are going to acquire a pitcher, it's just that if it's not Cliff Lee it will be via surprise trade because the Yankees aren't going to give Jorge de la Rosa millions of dollars to have a lefty AJ Burnett.
As far as the lineup is concerned I care more about the lineup order rather than who's in it. The Yankees can afford to overpay for Jeter, they can't afford to give him 600+ plate appearances leading off. Brett Gardner and Nick Swisher at this point in their careers are more adept at getting on base and avoiding GIDP than Jeter. Give him $60M but don't give him the a spot atop the lineup.
If you focus on what's good about the Yankees lineup instead of what's bad you'll realize the Yankees are still quite good. As much as they are aging (Jeter, Posada, Arod) they are young and/or in their primes (Granderson, Swisher, Gardner, Cano, Teixeira and maybe Montero). Plus, I think we are forgetting context a little, Posada had a down year but he was still the third best hitting catcher in the league. Jeter sucked by his standards but only a handful of SS were better with the stick. Arod is no longer a beast, but other than Longoria and Beltre, can you name me any other third basemen in the AL who are better? At every position the Yankees have players who hit among the best, this won't change next year and therefore their lineup doesn't require anything other than easing the Jesus in.
My plan (and what I hope the Yankees version is as well) is pretty simple: sign Derek Jeter without embarrassing him or the team, sign Cliff Lee and find a couple of cheap relievers.
If the Yankees cared about how Cliff Lee will be when he's 38 years old they wouldn't sign Alex Rodriguez until he was 42, give a 4 year extension to a 36 year old catcher or look to resign a 37 year old shortstop. This what the Yankees can and, in regards to signing Cliff Lee, should do.
I like the idea of overpaying for Putz, or Harden; I'm not sure if JJ requires a draft pick or not, but still his numbers were very in-line with his good career numbers, and that was playing in the hitter friendly US cellular with a pretty below avg defense behind him.
ReplyDeleteWoods control problems still scare me too much, he's going to want 5+/ yr and prob a 2-3 year commitment, I know Girardi played with Wood (did he catch the should have been no-hitter with 20k's?) and all that but throwing strikes is a must for a reliever.
Harden would be a high-risk high-reward guy and I would take the gamble so long as there is no draft pick compensation and he costs somewhere in the Nick Johnson ballpark.
Surprised no one mentioned Zaun as a possible 3rd catcher. Pierzinski is one of the most hated people in baseball so I doubt the yanks go that route.
One possible trade target is Brandon Inge. He's over-paid as is and is the perfect bench/utility guy and he's a right-handed bat with some pop to help against lefties. He could be the 3rd catcher and spell A-Rod in the field when he needs days off, and even make some spot starts in LF when/if Granderson/Gardner are sitting vs Lefties.
Dombrowski knows that Inge is a fan fave, but he's got peralta and could use the Inge money to sign a true SS like O-Cab.
Yanks could prob give almost nothing for Inge. My only fear of dealing with Dombrowski is that he really is a good talent evaluator and you never know if the guy the Yanks give up turns into something.
I would LOVE the yanks to make a play for Joakim Soria, but that's prob wishing on a star.
I wonder if Garnder for Soria is realistic.....
Lot's to talk about here.
ReplyDelete1)There are so many available relievers the Yankees shouldn't have to overpay for any of them. For righties there is Wood, Putz, Uehara, Benoit, Soriano, Balfour, Gregg, Rauch, Saito, Frasor
Lefties: Downs, Hisanori Takahashi, Rhodes, Fuentes, Feliciano
2) Yankees don't need a 3rd catcher, they need a starting one, but they're just gonna roll with Montero and Posada.
3)Brandon Inge signed an extension with the Tigers
4)Yankees looked into getting Soria during the season and the cost was Montero. I'd give up basically anything but Montero to get him though because he's the closest we could get to a Mo replacement.
I think the Yankees need to make 1 or 2 risk/reward 1-year SP signings and Harden could do that.
I see the Yankees signing Lee and Scott Downs. Joba/Robertson is good enough to at least start the regular season and Downs is a lefty that can get out righties.
ReplyDeleteJJ Hardy may get non tendered too, in which case the Yankees should be all over that.