Who Needs a Prince?

"Get me out of here!"

While perusing the always great MLB Trade Rumors, I came upon a post with their writers predicting free agent destinations.

Ranked #23 on their list, 3 of the 5 writers said that Derrek Lee would sign with the Brewers and one another guessed that the Brewers would sign Adam LaRoche, ranked 34th.

The resurgent Derrek Lee looked very good during his time with the Braves last year (.849 OPS in 151 at bats after .751 OPS  in 475 at bats on the Cubs), is at least an average fielding first baseman, and is an overall  good guy to plug in at 1b without breaking the bank.  The interesting part about this isn't how Lee (or LaRoche) will fit with the Brewers, its who it's assumed will be leaving this offseason, Prince Fielder.

It's not a surprise that Prince Fielder is expected to leave the Brewers, there is only a 0.0456% chance they are able to resign him according to the latest study.  But I find it interesting that even though there have been no whispers on the trading front recently, it's more or less a given that he'll be playing 1b (or DH) for another team come April.  This could be problematic for the Brewers since Padres 1b,Adrian Gonzalez is also rumored to be on the move, and he's the better player.  Dave Cameron at FanGraphs had a recent piece about the Padres situation and concluded that it makes more sense for the Padres to trade A-Gone now, rather than during the season.  His reasoning:

The risks of keeping him outweigh the potential benefits for a team in San Diego’s position. The theoretical maximum return would probably come from a July trade, but the risk associated with attempting to get the best possible deal simply isn’t worth it. Take 95 percent of the best possible outcome now and let someone else absorb the risk that comes from having that much value tied into one player.

Assuming the same logic applies to Prince Fielder and the Brewers, they should try to trade Prince ASAP.  With Adrian Gonzalez available as another trade target and several 1b available via free agency (Derrek Lee, Paul Konerko, Adam LaRoche, Aubrey Huff, Carlos Pena and Lance Berkman) it would serve the Brewers well to get what they can from Prince now.

But what could they reasonably expect to get for Prince now?  At the moment it doesn't seem like much.  While Prince Fielder is younger and likely better than say Paul Konerko, he'll also cost a few prospects and require a larger, more expensive contract. Adrian Gonzalez is head and shoulders above the available guys and he's ridiculously cheap for this year at $5.8M.  Essentially, there is no doubt that he'll get a lot in return right this second, so it makes sense for the Padres to maybe play it a little conservative and trade him.

Unfortunately for the Brewers, I just don't see that large of a market for Prince Fielder right now.  Are the prospects that the Brewers can get for Prince right now, going to be better than what they can get in July or the draft picks they'd receive if he walks?  There are just too many alternatives to Prince, he's not as "transcendent" of a guy as A-Gone, it may make sense for Brewers to push their luck in trading him because right now it doesn't seem like they have any.