Unfortunately I couldn't find someone to give their fanboy opinion of this game, so we'll just have to resort to my normal, boring analysis! Before that though, here is a picture of a hot Rays fan:
ANWAYS, this is a very intriguing matchup of 2 young exciting teams. Let's compare....
Starting Pitching:
The Rays have the depth, the Rangers are more top heavy.
Rays:
David Price: 3.42 FIP*, 2.38 k/bb
James Shields: 4.24 FIP, 3.67 k/bb
Matt Garza: 4.42 FIP, 2.38 k/bb
Wade Davis: 4.79 FIP, 1.82 k/bb
David Price has been a beast all year. James Shields has been particularly unlucky this year with an ERA over 5 even though his underlying numbers are in line with what he's done the last few years. Matt Garza has always outperformed his FIP but this has been his worst year as a Ray. No team wants to use their 4th starter at all, let alone in a 5 game series, but Wade Davis is pretty good as far as that goes.
*in case you were unaware, FIP is Fielding Independent Pitching. It's a pitching statistic that is scaled to look like ERA but takes into account only what a pitcher controls, taking defense out of the equation.
Rangers:
Cliff Lee: 2.58 FIP (2.90 on Rangers), 10.28 k/bb (best ever)
Colby Lewis: 3.55 FIP, 3.02 k/bb
CJ Wilson: 3.56 FIP, 1.83 k/bb
Tommy Hunter: 4.99 FIP, 2.06 k/bb
This is a tough one to call. My heart is saying it's the Rays, they of course have the best pitching, that's what they do! But my head is saying well when I look at it, the Rangers have the best starter and their #2 and #3 are at least as good as the Rays. So....
EDGE: Rangers, slightly
Bullpen:
Both teams have excellent closers. Neftali Feliz is a ROY candidate (will get to those pesky award predictions soon, don't you worry!) and Rafael Soriano has been filthy all year. Both teams also have solid lefties too with Darren Oliver on the Rangers and Randy Choate on the Rays. The Rays however have Joaquin Benoit who has a 2.43 FIP and a 11.19 k/9 which gives them another relief ace that the Rangers don't quite have. The Rays hold onto leads and it's usually over after 7 innings.
EDGE: Rays, pretty big
Lineup:
I'll say straight up right now that, when healthy, the Rangers have the edge, however it's not as big as you may think. As a team the Rangers had a .333 wOBA all year while the Rays' was .328. But, there is that question of health; they NEED Josh Hamilton like he was during the year and let's be honest, Nelson Cruz, Vlad Guerrero and Ian Kinsler aren't really models of health and Murphy is hurt ATM as well. Maybe I'm a fool to say they're even, but I just don't see how Josh Hamilton can play like he did in June, and without that I'm not ready to give them the edge, so...
EDGE: EVEN
Defense:
The Rangers new found pitching success can at least partially be attributed to improved defense, but the Rays still excel here.
EDGE: Rays
At this point it seems like a coin flip and it probably is, but the Rangers just seem to top heavy for me to give them the edge. Yea they got Cliff Lee, but what if he can't pitch 2 games? The Rays would then win the rotation advantage since Davis and Niemann are better than Tommy Hunter. At their best the Rangers are a better team but over a series (even a shorter 5 game serires) the Rays have the deeper rotation, deeper bullpen, a more reliable lineup (even if at its best it is worse), and better defense. So...
PREDICTION: Rays in 5. This is going to be a close one, count me as someone who believes that the extra 2% will win the series.
UPDATE: Silly me, I forgot how Longoria isn't so healthy himself. It doesn't sway my choice that the Rays will hang on in a close series, but it has to be noted, especially considering I bashed the Rangers for their (lack of) health.
That chick is the FSU super fan who parlayed her ta's into a sideline reporting job. It has also been reported that former Jets QB Brett Favre sent her a picture or two of his ween.
ReplyDeleteCan't blame him.
It's a shame her boobs get in the way of her keen analysis!
ReplyDelete