It's rumored that Dusty Baker is going to sign a 3 year extension with the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds have made the move from young team to contender and Baker has been at the helm so you can't fault the Reds for keeping him, but it's never too late to give him a jab about abusing pitchers, even if it's not (totally) true.
Shawn Estes, Kirk Rueter, Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Edinson Volquez, and Aaron Harang have all struggled and/or been hurt after been seemingly/questionably overused by Baker. This year Reds made the playoffs in large part because their rotation. The Reds have always mashed in their bandbox, this year the rotation was good enough to win the division. In 2009 the Reds had a rotation FIP of 4.91 and this year its 4.27. While the "Dusty Baker Effect" (if there is such a thing) won't take place this year (except for already injured Mike Leake) it will be interesting to see how the Reds young rotation holds up in 2011 hopefully with a new addition named Aroldis Chapman so we can see how his 105+ MPH heat holds up over 6+ innings.
A big thing to remember is that a lot of pitchers eventually get hurt no matter how cautious you are with them(see Strasburg, Stephen), and like I mentioned, the Reds have a handful of young pitchers. If they were pitching for any team it's likely that one or more of Cueto, Travis Wood, Aroldis Chapman, Mike Leake, and Homer Bailey would find themselves on the DL at some point so we can't go pointing fingers at Dusty if/when that happens. What will likely happen then is some regression, and an injury or two that will likely have nothing to do with Dusty. Sometimes pitchers that throw 100+ MPH just don't stay healthy (see Strasburg, Stephen). With that said though, it'll be really hard not to blame Dusty if another young pitcher pitching in the postseason under Dusty Baker named Wood gets hurt.
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Mac n Cheese
Although it was in a losing effort, Pirates starter James McDonald continued to pitch well for the Pirates throwing 6 innings of 5 hit ball with 7 Ks and no walks.
With the Pirates McDonald is now 4-5 with a 3.52 ERA with 61 Ks in 64 IP. For the season McDonald has a 3.13 FIP and a 4.18 xFIP, pretty impressive stuff. It'll be interesting to see how he will do over a full season, but regardless of how well he pitches for the Pirates, the Dodgers have to be kicking themselves. Ted Lilly, Vincente Padilla and Hiroki Kuroda are all Free Agents next year which leaves the Dodgers with just 2 starters on the team in Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsly. You know what the Dodgers could use? A young starter with potential like James McDonald. You know what the Dodgers traded for an OK setup man? A young starter with potential named James McDonald.
Look how bad the non-McDonald starters for the Pirates have been this year:
Barf. The Pirates obviously need other (capable) starters to start becoming a (non-laughable) team, but James McDonald will be a good 'starting' point.
With the Pirates McDonald is now 4-5 with a 3.52 ERA with 61 Ks in 64 IP. For the season McDonald has a 3.13 FIP and a 4.18 xFIP, pretty impressive stuff. It'll be interesting to see how he will do over a full season, but regardless of how well he pitches for the Pirates, the Dodgers have to be kicking themselves. Ted Lilly, Vincente Padilla and Hiroki Kuroda are all Free Agents next year which leaves the Dodgers with just 2 starters on the team in Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsly. You know what the Dodgers could use? A young starter with potential like James McDonald. You know what the Dodgers traded for an OK setup man? A young starter with potential named James McDonald.
Look how bad the non-McDonald starters for the Pirates have been this year:
| Name | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | BB | IBB | SO |
| James McDonald | 4 | 5 | 3.52 | 11 | 11 | 64 | 24 | 4 | 61 |
| Ross Ohlendorf | 1 | 11 | 4.07 | 21 | 21 | 108.1 | 44 | 2 | 79 |
| Jeff Karstens | 3 | 10 | 4.88 | 25 | 19 | 121.2 | 27 | 5 | 71 |
| Brian Burres | 4 | 4 | 5.01 | 19 | 12 | 73.2 | 32 | 4 | 41 |
| Paul Maholm | 9 | 15 | 5.10 | 32 | 32 | 185.1 | 62 | 2 | 102 |
| Zach Duke | 8 | 14 | 5.63 | 28 | 28 | 155 | 48 | 1 | 95 |
| Charlie Morton | 2 | 11 | 7.94 | 16 | 16 | 73.2 | 25 | 3 | 50 |
Barf. The Pirates obviously need other (capable) starters to start becoming a (non-laughable) team, but James McDonald will be a good 'starting' point.
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Jason Heyward, Future
On his wonderful Minor League Baseball site John Sickles does his "Crystal Ball" feature on Jason Heyward.
Even as just a "conversation starter" let's just say that the future is looking bright:
On a more personal note, while my fantasy baseball team would like to see more double-digit steal totals in his future I think I'll be able to live with that.
Even as just a "conversation starter" let's just say that the future is looking bright:
That's a first ballot HOF and essentially the best player in the league. Here's to projecting players until 2032.
On a more personal note, while my fantasy baseball team would like to see more double-digit steal totals in his future I think I'll be able to live with that.
Adam Jones, Tweeter
I have been informed that Adam Jones' Twitter account is fantastic.
I have quickly taken a browse, and it is pretty, pretty good.
Some standouts:
I have quickly taken a browse, and it is pretty, pretty good.
Some standouts:
Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester and the AL Cy Young
I am fully aware of the idea luck, especially involving pitchers, but I'm pretty shocked more attention hasn't been given to Clay Buchholz's magnificent season. He 17 wins and a 2.33 ERA and I barely hear a whisper about him on the TV, radio, or internet. I understand that he has been extraordinarily lucky this year with a 4.21 xFIP, .265 BABIP, and that he doesn't have great ratios (6.22 k/9 and 3.47 bb/9), but with those baseball card numbers on a team like the Red Sox I figured he'd be garnering more attention. Especially since Trevor Cahill, who has a very similar profile to Buccholz, started to get some Cy Young love before slipping recently.
I guess it's just been that kind of a year for the Red Sox, a pretty forgetful one. David Price is 19-6 with a 2.73 ERA and he's getting a lot of Cy Young consideration while Buchholz and his teammate Jon Lester (19-8 2.96 ERA) are barely getting a sniff, or as big of a sniff as they deserve.
I understand team performance carrying a lot of weight for MVP consideration (not that I agree), but the Cy Young? Listen, Ibelieve know that Felix Hernandez has been the best pitcher in the AL this year, but for the sake of this argument I'll concede the opposition's argument on wins. If you say that no Cy Young winner can have "just" 13 wins, fine, whatever, your wrong but so be it. The problem I have then is what exactly makes David Price a better Cy Young candidate over Jon Lester? It can't be the numbers:
David Price: 19 wins, 2.73 ERA, 1.20 WHIP,187 Ks, 3.44 FIP
Jon Lester: 19 wins, 2.96 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 220 Ks, 2.99 FIP
So it must be the fact that Price plays on a better and more popular team this year, which is kind of pathetic. It's pathetic because it doesn't even effect the numbers. Felix's shit team has killed his wins. Lester has the same amount of wins and is essentially behind Price because the Rays are more popular, seriously.
Price does have a better ERA (which matters most to writers) than Lester but CC Sabathia has an even worse ERA and is getting a lot of attention as well.
David Price isn't going to pitch again this year while Jon Lester will. If Jon Lester wins on a strong start Thursday against the White Sox giving him more wins (and the magical #20) and an ERA just a tad higher (albeit with stronger peripheral numbers) there will be no reason why Price should get more votes than him. Maybe after the season is over and everyone has time to sort through the final numbers things will change. But if Price gets more votes than Lester because we "decided" he was a favorite in August then that's just unfair, Jon Lester has been the better pitcher this year.
Side Note: I just have to mention Francisco Liriano. He has been better than Lester, Price, and Sabathia but he has been unlucky with "only" 14 wins and a 3.48 ERA vs. 2.5 FIP which is the largest disparity in the majors. I would probably vote Liriano before Sabathia and co., but I understand why someone wouldn't think that a player with a higher ERA and 7 less wins has pitched better.
I guess it's just been that kind of a year for the Red Sox, a pretty forgetful one. David Price is 19-6 with a 2.73 ERA and he's getting a lot of Cy Young consideration while Buchholz and his teammate Jon Lester (19-8 2.96 ERA) are barely getting a sniff, or as big of a sniff as they deserve.
I understand team performance carrying a lot of weight for MVP consideration (not that I agree), but the Cy Young? Listen, I
David Price: 19 wins, 2.73 ERA, 1.20 WHIP,187 Ks, 3.44 FIP
Jon Lester: 19 wins, 2.96 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 220 Ks, 2.99 FIP
So it must be the fact that Price plays on a better and more popular team this year, which is kind of pathetic. It's pathetic because it doesn't even effect the numbers. Felix's shit team has killed his wins. Lester has the same amount of wins and is essentially behind Price because the Rays are more popular, seriously.
Price does have a better ERA (which matters most to writers) than Lester but CC Sabathia has an even worse ERA and is getting a lot of attention as well.
David Price isn't going to pitch again this year while Jon Lester will. If Jon Lester wins on a strong start Thursday against the White Sox giving him more wins (and the magical #20) and an ERA just a tad higher (albeit with stronger peripheral numbers) there will be no reason why Price should get more votes than him. Maybe after the season is over and everyone has time to sort through the final numbers things will change. But if Price gets more votes than Lester because we "decided" he was a favorite in August then that's just unfair, Jon Lester has been the better pitcher this year.
Side Note: I just have to mention Francisco Liriano. He has been better than Lester, Price, and Sabathia but he has been unlucky with "only" 14 wins and a 3.48 ERA vs. 2.5 FIP which is the largest disparity in the majors. I would probably vote Liriano before Sabathia and co., but I understand why someone wouldn't think that a player with a higher ERA and 7 less wins has pitched better.
Playoff Picture
Although the winner of the AL East has yet to be decided (the Rays are currently up one game) all four playoff teams have been decided in the American League: Rays, Yankees, Twins, Rangers.
As for the National League only the Phillies and Reds have clinched. The remaining spots will go to 2 of the Braves, Padres, and Giants. Right now the Braves lead the wild card by 1.5 games and the Giants have a 2 game lead on the Padres in the NL West. So, let's look at the remaining schedules and try to guesstimate:
Giants: 2 games against Arizona and then 3 games against San Diego
Padres: 2 games against the Cubs and then 3 games at San Fransisco
Braves: 1 game against Florida and then 3 against Philadelphia
With the Braves up 1.5 games on the Padres and the Padres and Giants likely having a tough battle, I think the Braves are a (relatively) safe bet to make the postseason. They also finish up against the Phillies which I think will be a good thing since the Phillies will be resting their starters. Although they will theoretically be able to sweep the Giants and make the playoffs, it's looking tough for the Padres. The Cubs have been playing very well under Mike Quade and the Giants are playing a truly terrible team in the DBacks, unfortunately the Padres dream season may end before the postseason starts.
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Yankees Roundtable
Last week: How important is it to you for the Yankees to win (or try to win) the division?
This week: Next week will be all about the playoffs so let's discuss something completely different this week, Jesus Montero. What are your thoughts about him and what do you think the Yankees should do with him?
Ben: Before the season Jesus Montero was considered a top 5 prospect and surely after holding his own in AAA at 20 years old Montero will still be considered as such. Catching depth is a strength for the Yankees (Romine, Sanchez, Murphy) in the minors and there are extreme doubts as to if Montero will stay at catcher with most people assuming he won't. With that said and with Teixeira at 1b, Montero would be looking at playing DH on a roster with players who could use time off. That's why Montero was apparently offered to the Blue Jays for Halladay last year and was involved in a deal to Seattle for Cliff Lee this year before Seattle chose Justin Smoak over him. At those times I agreed with trading Montero, if you can add a piece mid season (or a guy like Halladay) to help you win a championship you do it. However, during this off season I don't think that the Yankees should entertain offers for Montero, there just aren't any good enough pitchers that will be available unless the Marlins decide to unload Josh Johnson.
So, while Montero held his own in AAA as a 20 year old, he didn't do quite enough to merit an auto spot in the lineup next year. What I think the Yankees should do then is keep Montero in AAA to start the year and let his play dictate where he should play while he attempts to stay at catcher. If he's mashing by June then bring him up as a 1b/dh/part time catcher. If the season plays out like it did this year where a guy like Cliff Lee becomes available (and the Yankees are still good) then the Yankees should entertain a deal just like they did during this years deadline. As good as Montero can be, a DH only has so much value unless you are the White Sox this year (Mark Kotsay!). I love the Jesus, I think he will be a great player and there are only a handful of guys that I'd trade him for, but if those guys become available the Yankees should make the deal.
Jeff: While trying to avoiding a lot of the same, Ben is right on point. Montero is a great prospect, but his lack of progress as a catcher, defensively, at this point is a problem. Yes, he is still very young, but do the Yankees really want to let this kid rot away in the minors for another year or two while trying to become a catcher? It could be worth it, but Montero also loses value with each year that passes, and especially loses value if he continues to stay in the minors and continues to not improve defensively.
Having to hold onto Montero as the Yankees' "catcher of the future" is especially not crucial with the emergence of Austin Romine, who at this point with his defensive abilities (in comparison to Montero) is more of a "catcher" of the future than Montero is at this point. So with someone like Romine in the system, and Teixeira cemented at 1B for years to come, Montero is left to be pushed into the outfield (which he probably doesn't have the speed for), or to be a DH. And as Ben mentioned, is Montero really worth calling up as an every day DH?
As the Yankees tried to do in their pursuit of Cliff Lee during the season, their best option is probably trading Montero for his value, while he still has that kind of value. Montero is still a heavily sought after commodity, and with the Yankees' lack of a pressing need for an everyday DH, it is apparent that letting Montero develop into a "DH of the future" isn't as promising of an option as is trying to trade him for his value. I personally would love to see Montero be turned into a front line starter, or at least a pitching prospect. Will that happen? That is up to Cashman.
Having to hold onto Montero as the Yankees' "catcher of the future" is especially not crucial with the emergence of Austin Romine, who at this point with his defensive abilities (in comparison to Montero) is more of a "catcher" of the future than Montero is at this point. So with someone like Romine in the system, and Teixeira cemented at 1B for years to come, Montero is left to be pushed into the outfield (which he probably doesn't have the speed for), or to be a DH. And as Ben mentioned, is Montero really worth calling up as an every day DH?
As the Yankees tried to do in their pursuit of Cliff Lee during the season, their best option is probably trading Montero for his value, while he still has that kind of value. Montero is still a heavily sought after commodity, and with the Yankees' lack of a pressing need for an everyday DH, it is apparent that letting Montero develop into a "DH of the future" isn't as promising of an option as is trying to trade him for his value. I personally would love to see Montero be turned into a front line starter, or at least a pitching prospect. Will that happen? That is up to Cashman.
Steve: I'm surprised no one has mentioned Jorge Posada and his waning abilities behind the dish. Jorgie was never a defensive stud to begin with, but as the years pile up and the injuries mount the Yankees will soon not be able to justify ever having him catch. He allowed 4 stolen bases during a big time, Rivera-blown save against the Sox this week. Clearly opponents are taking notice. Would it really be worse to have Montero back there watching shouldn't-be past balls scoot by while he mashes at bat? We could finally stop wasting a lineup spot on Cervelli and get a real bat in the catcher slot, freeing Cashman up to go get Adam Dunn and stick him at DH.
Devil's advocating aside, I agree with Ben and Jeff. The Yanks threw Montero on the table hoping someone would bite and no one did, which only weakens his trade value for the short term. Halladay or Lee would have been beautiful additions to what now seems to be a weak rotation, but the Yanks have got to hold tight and hope Montero can make some noise in the big leagues next year. Of course, we're always thinking "trade!" with these prospects because New York has the luxury of acquiring proven commodities for unproven ones. I would love to see Montero stick around at catcher and make the Posada-less era an easier one to swallow, but I'm not opposed to dangling him again once his numbers drown out the recent trade rejections. Jesus will arise soon.
Monday, September 27, 2010
Complisult
I don't love the guy, and maybe it's a weak idea for an ESPN column, but Rick Reilly gives out his complisults to each NFL team. According to Reilly:
Why not do this for MLB right? I'll try my best to duplicate Reilly's wonderful sense of humor!
A "complisult" is half-compliment, half-insult. It's not until you're driving home in your Prius that a complisult slaps you across the cheek.
A few complisults:
"You're so pretty. I'll bet you used to model, am I right?"
"You drive the coolest minivan in the neighborhood!"
"The weight you've gained in your face looks good. Takes out the creases."
Complisults are key to getting in your digs without getting your nose flattened into a tortilla for you. During football season, complisulting is essential. For instance, if you're sitting on a stool at your favorite sports bar this Sunday and a stranger plops down next to you in the wrong jersey, you need one ready. For instance …
Why not do this for MLB right? I'll try my best to duplicate Reilly's wonderful sense of humor!
Power Rankings
This is the last regular season power rankings, next week I'll start ranking the playoff teams.
1. Rays (3): They have the best record in the league and have won 4 of their last 5. While they are undoubtedly a great team that will likely play in the ALCS, complete with a full rotation of above average starters, I wonder if in a playoff format their rotation is that much better than the Yankees. During the course of a season having 5 pitchers is huge, but in the playoffs are guys like Wade Davis or James Shields really going to be the difference?
2. Twins (1): Losers of their last 3 but had won 3 in a row before that. They get the Royals and Blue Jays next so maybe I'm putting them here in anticipation of them finishing better than the Yankees. Not much else to say about them, they've been the best team in baseball in the 2nd half and anyone who pays attention is aware of this. And just by the way, Carl Pavano, WTF! In what world did we ever expect to hear Carl Pavano and rotation horse in the same sentence. He has 214 ip and 7 complete games this year. In 4 years on the Yankees he had 26 starts and an ERA of 5. Now it's like the Twins go "hey we need 8 innings to give the bullpen some rest, let's throw Pavano tonight." Again, what the fuck...
3. Yankees (2): Looked pretty bad against the Sox, enough to rank them behind the Rays and Twins. The concerns about the Yankees playoff rotation are legitimate, but mostly if they lose a game one. If the Yankees are up 1-0 in a series I don't think anyone will be saying wow Andy Pettitte and Phil Hughes are so much worse than Matt Garza and Wade Davis, or CJ Wilson and Colby Lewis, or Carl Pavano and Kevin Slowey. Every other playoff team's 2, 3 and 4 starters are better, but considering the Yankees have a better lineup and won't be blowing leads in the 9th, I'm not really as concerned as I was previously about them when I look at the above matchups.
4. Phillies (4): They had won 11 in a row before losing the last 2 and there are many arguments to be made that they should be #1. However, as much as recent performance matters, I just can't put an NL team above these guys. Still, they are pretty, pretty sick right now.
5. Rangers (5): Clinched the division and since home field isn't an option this next week will be all about aligning the rotation and getting Hamilton on track. For a young team finally making the playoffs the Rangers seem rather unexciting, especially compared to the excitement that was around during the Rays 2007 season. I said this last week about the Reds, maybe during the post season the media will try to give the young teams some oomph, but right now it's lacking.
6. Giants (9): I figured I would regret overrating the Rockies, but so be it, it was worth a shot. The Giants currently have a .5 game lead over the Padres in the revolving NL West leader door. For all the talk about the Phillies rotation, the Giants still have Cain and Lincy and a closer who I would actually trust in a big spot. Would you be surprised if I told you the Giants had the 2nd best run differential in the NL? If they can make the playoffs, they are the sleeper.
7. Padres (UR): Won their last 2 series, and have stopped the bleeding where it seemed like they were going to collapse to 3rd place. They've had such a surprising season it would suck to miss the postseason especially when you consider they will likely finish 3rd in the division next year. It's not too often a team that wins the division or falls just a game or two short trades their best player the following offseason, but that seems likely with Adrian Gonzalez. If the Red Sox get AGon what are the odds they are the favorite in 2011? Not the favorite by smart people, but by like SI and ESPN who will think their injuries cost them 15 games rather than a few?
8 & 9 Braves (6) Reds (10): Meh. Unfortunately dece teams get into the playoffs and both of these may end up getting there, the Reds are already in. The interesting thing could be that these teams are exact opposites of one another. The Braves rely on pitching and the Reds mash. Tulo and CarGo's MVP chances die with the Rockies missing the playoffs, I think Votto is now a lock to win the NL MVP.
10. Red Sox (8): The obligatory ode to the AL East spot. With their record right now they would be 1 game out of a playoff spot in the NL. If their schedule was played in the NL they would be 5 games up, no joke.
1. Rays (3): They have the best record in the league and have won 4 of their last 5. While they are undoubtedly a great team that will likely play in the ALCS, complete with a full rotation of above average starters, I wonder if in a playoff format their rotation is that much better than the Yankees. During the course of a season having 5 pitchers is huge, but in the playoffs are guys like Wade Davis or James Shields really going to be the difference?
2. Twins (1): Losers of their last 3 but had won 3 in a row before that. They get the Royals and Blue Jays next so maybe I'm putting them here in anticipation of them finishing better than the Yankees. Not much else to say about them, they've been the best team in baseball in the 2nd half and anyone who pays attention is aware of this. And just by the way, Carl Pavano, WTF! In what world did we ever expect to hear Carl Pavano and rotation horse in the same sentence. He has 214 ip and 7 complete games this year. In 4 years on the Yankees he had 26 starts and an ERA of 5. Now it's like the Twins go "hey we need 8 innings to give the bullpen some rest, let's throw Pavano tonight." Again, what the fuck...
3. Yankees (2): Looked pretty bad against the Sox, enough to rank them behind the Rays and Twins. The concerns about the Yankees playoff rotation are legitimate, but mostly if they lose a game one. If the Yankees are up 1-0 in a series I don't think anyone will be saying wow Andy Pettitte and Phil Hughes are so much worse than Matt Garza and Wade Davis, or CJ Wilson and Colby Lewis, or Carl Pavano and Kevin Slowey. Every other playoff team's 2, 3 and 4 starters are better, but considering the Yankees have a better lineup and won't be blowing leads in the 9th, I'm not really as concerned as I was previously about them when I look at the above matchups.
4. Phillies (4): They had won 11 in a row before losing the last 2 and there are many arguments to be made that they should be #1. However, as much as recent performance matters, I just can't put an NL team above these guys. Still, they are pretty, pretty sick right now.
5. Rangers (5): Clinched the division and since home field isn't an option this next week will be all about aligning the rotation and getting Hamilton on track. For a young team finally making the playoffs the Rangers seem rather unexciting, especially compared to the excitement that was around during the Rays 2007 season. I said this last week about the Reds, maybe during the post season the media will try to give the young teams some oomph, but right now it's lacking.
6. Giants (9): I figured I would regret overrating the Rockies, but so be it, it was worth a shot. The Giants currently have a .5 game lead over the Padres in the revolving NL West leader door. For all the talk about the Phillies rotation, the Giants still have Cain and Lincy and a closer who I would actually trust in a big spot. Would you be surprised if I told you the Giants had the 2nd best run differential in the NL? If they can make the playoffs, they are the sleeper.
7. Padres (UR): Won their last 2 series, and have stopped the bleeding where it seemed like they were going to collapse to 3rd place. They've had such a surprising season it would suck to miss the postseason especially when you consider they will likely finish 3rd in the division next year. It's not too often a team that wins the division or falls just a game or two short trades their best player the following offseason, but that seems likely with Adrian Gonzalez. If the Red Sox get AGon what are the odds they are the favorite in 2011? Not the favorite by smart people, but by like SI and ESPN who will think their injuries cost them 15 games rather than a few?
8 & 9 Braves (6) Reds (10): Meh. Unfortunately dece teams get into the playoffs and both of these may end up getting there, the Reds are already in. The interesting thing could be that these teams are exact opposites of one another. The Braves rely on pitching and the Reds mash. Tulo and CarGo's MVP chances die with the Rockies missing the playoffs, I think Votto is now a lock to win the NL MVP.
10. Red Sox (8): The obligatory ode to the AL East spot. With their record right now they would be 1 game out of a playoff spot in the NL. If their schedule was played in the NL they would be 5 games up, no joke.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)