More On Shoulders

By now Johan Santana's shoulder injury is widely known, when he will be pitching again is not.  Yesterday the NYT had a piece on Johan's injury:

“You probably won’t see him back to 100 percent until at least three months after his return,” said Levitz, who trained under Dr. James Andrews, one of the foremost experts on shoulder injuries and who consulted on Santana’s case.

“It usually requires between 70 and 80 innings before a pitcher is back to normal,” Levitz said. “He could help them if they make the playoffs next year, but he probably won’t be able to really help them get there.” [...]

Under the best circumstances, the procedure to repair the tear is done arthroscopically, which has an overwhelmingly high rate of success for pitchers to return to full strength, Levitz said.

But the location of Santana’s tear was difficult to reach with an arthroscope, so the surgeon, Dr. David Altchek, the Mets’ team physician, had to make an incision in the area of the tear. That causes scar tissue, which can affect the length of a pitcher’s rehabilitation and his range of motion, Levitz said. 

The article suggests that Johan can make a recovery because he has "shown the ability to recover well from injuries and operations" and that Al Leiter came back from shoulder operations.  However, Leiter's were less evasive and he was younger than Johan at the time of surgery.  Also, Johan's previous injuries were with his elbow, and as we all now know, shoulder injuries are much worse than elbow injuries. 

If the best-case scenario is that Johan will be able to help the Mets for the playoffs,  Johan aint helping the Mets next year.  It serves the Mets and Mets fans well to think positively but realistically the Mets are going to be paying Johan Johan $22.5 million to sit out next year and $49.5 million in 2012-13 (not counting $25.5 million option for 2014 with $5.5 million buyout) to find out if he can pitch effectively again.  



Fantasy Spin: Don't waste that late round pick to stash Johan on your DL.  It didn't work for Brandon Webb, Ben Sheets, or Erik Bedard (all shoulder injuries)  this year I'm not willing to risk even a 20th pick on it working this year.