"His fastball has been lit up this season plus it hasn't been very accurate. Take a look at how Burnett's effectiveness with the fastball compares to the rest of the league."
A.J. Burnett’s fastball 2010 vs. MLB average Burnett MLB AVG BA 0.311 0.281 Slug pct 0.511 0.439 K pct 8.7 13.6 BB pct 11.9 9.9
According to Fangraphs his velocity is down too from 94.2 mph to 93.1. But according to their pitch values even though Burnett's fastball has totally sucked this year (-.52 runs above average per 100 pitches), it's actually a little better than it was even last year (-.63). It seems to be the curveball however that is totally lost on Burnett. Last year his curveball produced 16 runs above average according to their Pitch Type Linear Weights, this year it's -4.2. He's also throwing it less often, 26.2% compared to 31% last year, which could reinforce the fact that it's been bad.
If you check out the PitchFx data it seems as though Burnett has abandoned his curve for a knuckle curve. However, it has the same vertical movement as his curve last year, and just less horizontal movement, so it's questionable as to if he really has used a new curveball or if it's just a lot worse. Also, the data shows that he's throwing a 2-seamer more often 23.9% compared to 2% last year. Maybe in years passed it didn't pick up the differences in 4-seamers and 2-seamers as well, but any way you want to slice it, it's been bad, really bad.
In years past Burnett was able to throw one of the hardest fastballs for a starter coupled with one of the best curveballs in the game. It didn't make him one of the best pitchers in the game, but it made him an elite strikeout pitcher and an overall effective one, good enough to justify the contract the Yankees gave him. Now Burnett is losing his fastball velocity (and likely won't regain it as he enters his mid-late 30s) and has a horrible curve. To make matters worse he never threw a change or slider or any other pitch to offset his 2 pitch repertoire. I have to think that this year is a lost cause, he won't "find" his curveball in a month leading to the postseason and he won't learn a new pitch either. This offseason will be a very important one for Burnett and the Yankees. If he's able to "find" his once devastating curveball again or figure out a way to incorporate a changeup he can become an effective pitcher again. If he doesn't it's likely he will be kicked out of the rotation next year and maybe considered for release before his contract ends in 2013.
Side Note: This is somewhat off topic but let's think about the Yankees team in 2013 for a second. Mark Teixeira will be making $22.5m, CC Sabathia (if he doesn't opt out) $23m, Alex Rodriguez $28m, AJ Burnett $16.5m, and Jeter let's say he signs at best a $45m/3yr deal. So that adds up to $21m per player with an average age of 36! That group already helped win one title, and it's likely they may add another one, but in 2013 the Yankees are going to have a very expensive and very old handful of guys making over $20m a year.
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