Just now, against (deserving) Cy Young Award winner Felix Hernandez in the bottom of the first inning, Jose Bautista launched his 50th home run this season.
UPDATE: I wanted to get that post up early without commenting on it because I may have actually been the first person in the blogging world to "report" that Bautista hit his 50th HR. Maybe.
ANYWAYS, Jose Bautista and his 24 ding dongs before the break got him into the All-Star Game but everyone still thought of him as a fluke. But take a look at these splits (not counting today):
Pre All-Star Break: 304 ABs,.237/.361/.543, 24 HR 56 RBI., 144 OPS+, .224 BABIP
Post All-Star Break: 226 ABs, .301/.410/.717 25 HR 58 RBI, 206 OPS+, .261 BABIP
If Bautista was a fluke before the break then he's really been a fluke since. After the break it was expected that pitchers would "figure out" Bautista and that his nice 1st half story would be forgotten by September, and certainly by 2011 when pitchers really figured out how to get the guy out. Well what's happened since then has been anything but. Bautista's OPS was 44% better than the league average in the 1st half, and in the 2nd half it's been over 100% better!
As you may have noticed, Bautista's BABIP has increased in the second half, but a .261 BABIP hardly screams luck. In fact, Bautista's career BABIP is .272. Bautista isn't the same player as he once was (obviously considering nobody knew him before), hitting significantly more fly balls which leads to more homers as we have seen, as well as a lower BABIP. However, using this simple xBABIP tool we find out that Bautista should have a BABIP of .283. Now, this surely doesn't mean that Jose Bautista has been unlucky this year, but I think it does mean that Bautista is the real deal.
Sort of. The real deal in this case doesn't equate to Bautista being a consistent 50 HR hitter, because that just doesn't happen this side of BALCO. With his patience at the plate and a new found hitting approach back dated to last September (when he hit 10 HR in 109 AB) however, there is really no reason to suggest Bautista can't become a consistent 35-40+ HR hitter.
If there are still any skeptics that Bautista is legit look no further than Carlos Pena. Carlos Pena went from AAA fodder to smacking 46 homers. While Pena was a highly touted prospect and had hit as many as 27 HR in a season before his 2007 breakout, it's a pretty similar scenario/breakout. In fact, if Bautista had been given 500-600 ABs in seasons prior it's likely he would have smacked 25 or so HR on occasion. It wouldn't be the 50 he has now but going from let's say 28 HR to 50 just seems more plausible than from 16 to 50. I realize that Carlos Pena is batting juuuuuuust above the Mendoza Line right now (.201), but if you combine 2008, 2009 and 2010 so far, he has 97 homers and a 123 OPS+. That's not the same as the 172 OPS+ he had in his 2007 breakout but it does help legitimize Pena as a hitter, and similarly, Bautista.
By all means wait for the league to figure out Bautista if you still want, because while you do Bautista is waiting for you to figure out that he is legitimate.
No comments:
Post a Comment