It's safe to say the Phillies have taken the National League by storm and are the likely favorites to get to the World Series, is it now safe though to expect them to win it?
The old adage is that you need pitching in the playoffs, if that's the case (and it is), then the Phillies have the pitching. In the past that wasn't always the case when the Phillies were more like a "typical" AL team, one with a killer lineup and suspect pitching. Since those same hitters are still on the Phillies people kind of assume they're just as good, and now that they have their own version of "the big three" people are jumping on the Phillies 2011 Champions bandwagon. The thing is that there lineup isn't as good as it was:
2007 | wOBA | 2010 | wOBA | ||
Ryan Howard | 0.396 | Ryan Howard | 0.371 | ||
Chase Utley | 0.420 | Chase Utley | 0.375 | ||
Jimmy Rollins | 0.378 | Jimmy Rollins | 0.319 | ||
Jayson Werth | 0.385 | Jayson Werth | 0.392 |
While the Phillies are getting much better production out of Carlos Ruiz this year they're also worse in left field when compared to 2007 (Patt Burrell .391 wOBA/ Ibanez .343) and center field (Aaron Rowand .382 wOBA/Victorino .342). Now I realize the Phillies won in 2008, not 2007, but my point is to illustrate that the big guns on the Phillies just aren't what they once were, and things were pretty similar when you compare the 2008 numbers. Yes they have an unbelievable rotation for the playoffs, but no, that's not coupled with a once top tier offense. Chase Utley is seemingly on that typical 2b decline and Jimmy Rollins is no longer, well, good. This doesn't mean that the Phillies aren't a great team, and shouldn't be considered the favorites in the National League (they are, especially if the bullpen can hold up), it's just that we shouldn't jump the gun on a nice win streak to now state that they are better than their American League counter parts in the Yankees, Twins, and Rays (they aren't).
ANYWAYS, I find it intriguing that Roy Halladay will be pitching in his first postseason this year, and I'm totally psyched to see how he does. As I mentioned before he already has 241 ip this year and if he starts two more times he'd be at 256 or so. If the Phillies make a run like they did in 2008, and if Halladay can pitch like Cole Hamels did (or at least the amount of innings) when he threw 35 during his awesome run, Halladay could theoretically be inching at 290 ip for the year which is totally insane and why he's the best pitcher on the planet, and maybe the universe.
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