The top 10:
1) Hanley Ramirez
2) Albert Pujols
3) Miguel Cabrera
4) Carl Crawford
5) Joey Votto
6) Robinson Cano
7) Evan Longoria
8) Troy Tulowitzki
9) Ryan Braun
10) Carlos Gonzalez
40) Jose Bautista
Clearly Cockroft isn't a Bautista believer. I know CarGo was a huge prospect who came off a fine 2009 in more limited playing time, but didn't Jose Bautista do the same? In September 2009 Bautista was incredible and it's carried over to 2010, CarGo similarly had a solid 2009 when he played and its carried over, so why does he get all the love? I'm not trying to diminish CGon's value*, any 24 year old that hits (not has the potential to hit) .300+ 30+HR and 24SB deserves to be ranked high, it's just I think Bautista should be higher than 40. It's not only CarGo either, is Alex Rios (26th) that more reliable than Bautista? Is Nelson Cruz (30) and his inability to stay on the field a better bet than Bautista? Are Jayson Werth (34) and Adrian Beltre (27) going to have close to the production they have had this year if they play in a different park next year? I realize some of those guys steal bases too, but Bautista has hit 20 more homers than them and has stolen 8 bases of his own!
*I still feel I must point out that guys like Carlos Gonzalez aren't the most reliable. Guys like Carlos Gonzalez are young, athletic, 5 tool players...that strike out a lot and often don't walk. CarGo Strikes out in 22.9% of his ABs which isn't terrible (it's hard to be terrible in anything and hit like he has) but has only walked in 6.7% of his ABs. Last year Matt Kemp was a consensus top 10 pick as well, this year he's been awful and his ranking fell to 22. In 2009 Kemp had a high BABIP .345 (although he always had high and higher than .345 BABIPs) walked in 7.8% of his ABs and struck out 22.9%. That sounds remarkably similar to CarGo, and CarGo has a .390 BABIP which is totally unsustainable.
The comparisons don't end there, Adam Jones had a sensational "breakout" 1st half in 2009 and he still hasn't built off of it with his similar approach. BJ and Justin Upton have all the potential in the world, and while they take walks, they also strike out a lot and have struggled to find consistency.
Carlos Gonzalez has been amazing all year for a reason, he's insanely talented and I'd find it hard to rank 10 guys ahead of him, it's just that his style of play is going to be prone to ups and downs, and unless he makes the proper adjustments, you may be disappointed in his performance. I'd love him on any of my teams, I just wouldn't want to draft or bid for him this year.
Other notable rankings are Chase Utley 16th and Alex Rodriguez 17th. I think Chase Utley still has a chance of becoming a top 10 player but I don't think Arod does. He really aged this year and if it weren't for his RBI you would notice it more. Old Arod would hit like Pujols with a worse average but steal 25 bases. Now Arod has a triple slash line closer to Casey McGehee.
Arod: .273/.339/.496
McGehee: .282/.335/.463
Arod is likely better than he has been this year, but he's already 35 years old. Maybe Arod pulls a 2009 Jeter in 2011 and has a mini renaissance only to really slip in 2012, but he's not a guy I want on my team, even as the 17th hitter.
Back to Chase, there are a few main concerns:
1) Where has the power gone? .173 ISO this year. From 2005-2009 those were .249, .219, .234, .244, and .226 respectively.
2) Overrated Speed. Utley has had 20 or more SBs only once, 23 last year. I wouldn't expect more than 15 TOPS.
3) 2b is now deep? Robinson Cano, Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia, Brandon Phillips, Dan Uggla, and Rickie Weeks are all top 75 hitters. That's not even counting Prado, Brian Roberts, Ben Zobrist, Chone Figgins and Gordon Beckham. Utley used to tower over the 2b, now he's just one of the guys
4) Age: Utley is 32 and for some reason, 2b don't age well. I'm not saying Utley drops off this year but he's never been Mr. Durable.
Like I said he could still be great and put up a .290 28 100 100 15 year, just it's looking less and less likely, and if he does do that, he won't even be all alone in the "2b that smash" category.
Like I said he could still be great and put up a .290 28 100 100 15 year, just it's looking less and less likely, and if he does do that, he won't even be all alone in the "2b that smash" category.
ANYWAYS, even during a tight fantasy race this year in my fantasy league, it's still exciting to look forward to the future, and as is often the case, more fun.
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