Wug, Derek Jeter?

In Joe Posnanski's last entry he writes about Derek Jeter and his falling dominoes, and about the contract cloud that hangs over his head:

Jeter’s stunning numbers (.266/.331/.374) are really pumped up by the energy and hitting atmosphere of Yankee Stadium. On the road he’s hitting .230/.294/.307.

We can argue about how much Jeter has left … but when you have a 36 year old shortstop with a .314 lifetime average suddenly hitting .266 in September — it sure smells of serious and irreversible decline.

I have to say I haven't followed Jeter's numbers over the past week or so, and didn't realize they were quite that bad especially on the road. Since he still plays SS (albeit pretty poorly) and hits roughly league average (97 wRC+/ 94 OPS+) Jeter still gives the Yankees positive value (1.7 Fangraphs WAR/ 1 B-Ref).  However, most of his hitting occurred in April and May, since May ended Jeter is batting .242/.322/.337. Yikes. Even if Jeter has given the Yankees a positive value (not considering his contract) overall, he hasn't over the past 3 months and there isn't any real evidence to suggest that he will in September and the playoffs.  Also if you look at B-Ref's most similar players by age, over the last 4 years you know who Jeter most similarly resembles?  ROBERTO ALOMAR! We all know how well Alomar lasted past age 36... he didn't, he was out of baseball after that.

So, how will the Yankees and Jeter figure out a contract?  Posnanski mentions 3 main issues: Money, shortstop, and lineup spot.  I have to agree with all three.  Just by a measure of on field production, Jeter will be overpaid and by a lot. It's fun to say that Jeter is a bad SS and should change positions, but who wants an OPS inching towards .700 at left field, and that's assuming he'd play better defense there.  As for his lineup spot, if Jeter continues down this path it will be hard for the Yankees to keep batting him 1st or 2nd this year, let alone next year.  Joe Torre famously batted Arod 8th in a deciding playoff game.  Arod was still in his prime.  Will Girardi bat Jeter 1st in the playoffs if he's batting .260 with no power or on base skills?  And with a capable leadoff replacement in Gardner?

Even though money isn't an issue for the Yankees, and even though they have no viable (or close to viable) replacement for him at short, I think what the Yankees are hoping for is this scenario:  The Yankees win the World Series and Derek Jeter pulls a Joe DiMaggio and retires on top.

Sure he will leave 3,000 hits on the table, but he'd also leave with 6 rings as a legend.  Realistically what would 3,000 hits do to Jeter's legacy?  However, if retirement is not an option I have to agree with the guy Posnanski talked to about this topic, Michael Schur, when he says "The disaster is coming."