Yankees vs. Rays Tonight

Since I'm going to the game I figured I'd talk a tad about tonights matchup...

The Yankees (91-59) up 1.5 games play the Rays (89-60) tonight in another potential division deciding game.

Phil Hughes is on the bump tonight dueling against James Shields.  For a 24 year old in the AL East, Hughes' seasonal line looks solid, 16-8 4.31 ERA, 1.25 whip, 2.73 k/bb, and a FIP inline with his performance (4.26 FIP/4.30 xFIP). However, since June began in his last 106.1 IP he has a 5.16 ERA, 1.35 whip, and a 2.57 k/bb.  Hughes is a fly ball pitcher and a big reason behind his early season success was his ability (or luck) to limit fly balls from leading the yard.  For the season Hughes has a 10.3% Home Run to Fly Ball ratio, during his first 9 starts that ratio was 3.33% and since then its been 11.36%. Hughes has maintained a similar k/bb ratio and hasn't had a decrease in velocity, so it really seems as though the main reason behind his struggles since June are the increase of homers.  Maybe as the whether gets colder Hughes will heat up as some more HR will (hopefully) turn to fly balls.  The Yankees will need that to happen too, as he is in all likelihood the #3 starter for the postseason with the Yankees having no plans to limit him from here on out.  If Hughes can keep Pena and Longoria from going yard he should have success tonight against the Rays and throughout the postseason.

James Shields has had an interesting year.  His ERA screams down year (4.86) but the underlying numbers scream bad luck (4.22 FIP/3.65 xFIP).  He has a career high k/9 (8.47) and has the same bb/9 as last year,  so what gives?  It seems as though Shields has had a similar HR problem.  For his career, 11.7% of fly balls hit off Shields turn into Home Runs, this year that number has climbed to 14.1%.  Shields has been up and down all year unlike Hughes who has 2 distinct halves.  Shields depends on control and a changeup to fool hitters and pitchers like that (Scott Baker) are prone to some inconsistencies.  However, his nickname is "Big Game" James, so I'm expecting Shields will fair (pretty) well against the Yankees tonight.

As for the lineups there are no surprises.  The Yankees mash all kinds of pitching (except Knucklers apparently), and the Rays like to run.  The lineups haven't been announced yet, but I'm not expecting any changes from last night, besides having Jorge play over Cervelli.  

Last night the Yankees won 8-6, I think tonight we will see fewer runs scored.

Prediction: The Yankees win 6-4.  Curtis Granderson continues his hot streak hitting a homer off of Shields who pitches well but not well enough.  The Yankees get to the Rays relief (again) and Hughes pitches the kind of "gutsy" performance sportswriters love, fighting his way through 6 innings of work.