Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester and the AL Cy Young

I am fully aware of the idea luck, especially involving pitchers, but I'm pretty shocked more attention hasn't been given to Clay Buchholz's magnificent season.  He 17 wins and a 2.33 ERA and I barely hear a whisper about him on the TV, radio, or internet.  I understand that he has been extraordinarily lucky this year with a 4.21 xFIP, .265 BABIP, and that he doesn't have great ratios (6.22 k/9 and 3.47 bb/9), but with those baseball card numbers on a team like the Red Sox I figured he'd be garnering more attention.  Especially since Trevor Cahill, who has a very similar profile to Buccholz, started to get some Cy Young love before slipping recently.

I guess it's just been that kind of a year for the Red Sox, a pretty forgetful one.  David Price is 19-6 with a 2.73 ERA and he's getting a lot of Cy Young consideration while Buchholz and his teammate Jon Lester (19-8 2.96 ERA) are barely getting a sniff, or as big of a sniff as they deserve.

I understand team performance carrying a lot of weight for  MVP consideration (not that I agree), but the Cy Young?  Listen, I believe know that Felix Hernandez has been the best pitcher in the AL this year, but for the sake of this argument I'll concede the opposition's argument on wins.  If you say that no Cy Young winner can have "just" 13 wins, fine, whatever, your wrong but so be it.  The problem I have then is what exactly makes David Price a better Cy Young candidate over Jon Lester?  It can't be the numbers:

David Price: 19 wins, 2.73 ERA, 1.20 WHIP,187 Ks, 3.44 FIP
Jon Lester: 19 wins, 2.96 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 220 Ks, 2.99 FIP

So it must be the fact that Price plays on a better and more popular team this year, which is kind of pathetic. It's pathetic because it doesn't even effect the numbers.  Felix's shit team has killed his wins.  Lester has the same amount of wins and is essentially behind Price because the Rays are more popular, seriously.

Price does have a better ERA (which matters most to writers) than Lester but CC Sabathia has an even worse ERA and is getting a lot of attention as well.

David Price isn't going to pitch again this year while Jon Lester will.  If Jon Lester wins on a strong start Thursday against the White Sox giving him more wins (and the magical #20) and an ERA just a tad higher (albeit with stronger peripheral numbers) there will be no reason why Price should get more votes than him.  Maybe after the season is over and everyone has time to sort through the final numbers things will change.  But if Price gets more votes than Lester because we "decided" he was a favorite in August then that's just unfair, Jon Lester has been the better pitcher this year.

Side Note:  I just have to mention Francisco Liriano.  He has been better than Lester, Price, and Sabathia but he has been unlucky with "only" 14 wins and a 3.48 ERA vs. 2.5 FIP which is the largest disparity in the majors.  I would probably vote Liriano before Sabathia and co., but I understand why someone wouldn't think that a player with a higher ERA and 7 less wins has pitched better.

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